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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
that extends eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent
Atlantic waters.  Significant development of the low is unlikely
today while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida
peninsula.  However, environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of
Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend.  Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon could be postponed if the center of the low remains
inland.  Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Conditions appear
less favorable for development when the low reaches the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Beven




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