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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland, and has issued the last advisory on Post-
Tropical Cyclone Lee, located almost 800 miles north-northwest
of the Azores.

1. The combination of a broad trough of low pressure over Florida and
an upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers that extend from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea northward across much of the Florida peninsula and the adjacent
waters.  Environmental conditions have become less conducive for
development and the chance of tropical cyclone formation has
decreased.  Nevertheless, locally heavy rainfall will likely
continue over portions of western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula during the next several days while the system
moves slowly northward and then westward near northern Florida and
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low is producing
a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers extending
from the eastern Caribbean Sea northeastward across the Lesser
Antilles to the nearby Atlantic waters.  Environmental conditions
have become unfavorable for development and tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few
days bringing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern
Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles during the next several
days.  A Flash Flood Watch in effect for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands through late Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Avila

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