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NHC Graphical Outlook Archive

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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


200 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Shower activity associated with this system has increased slightly,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday
before upper-level winds become less conducive for development.  The
low is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a disturbance
near the central and southeastern Bahamas.  However, surface
pressures are high, and there are still no signs of a surface
circulation.  Conditions do not appear conducive for significant
development of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Bahamas today and on Monday, and these rains are likely to
spread over portions of the Florida peninsula by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Pasch

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