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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


800 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. A weak area of low pressure extending from eastern Cuba northward
to the central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development during the next couple of
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development early next week when the system moves into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
scheduled to investigate this system this morning has been

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause
flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and
over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend.  Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and
will likely spread into parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys
over the weekend.  Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. A weak area of disturbed weather is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico.  Surface pressures in this area are currently high,
and little to no development of this system is expected before it
reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brennan/Brown

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