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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located just northeast of Bermuda.

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located about 275 miles east of the Leeward Islands
has continued to increase and become better organized during the
past several hours. Environmental and ocean conditions are expected
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form later today while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
move across the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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