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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

200 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become somewhat better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week.  The low is
expected to move westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph,
and interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to
Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor its
progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday afternoon, if
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable, and significant development of this
system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

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