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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

200 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few
hours in association with a small area of low pressure located just
north of the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. Satellite wind data and preliminary reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
circulation associated with the low is poorly defined. Some
additional development of this system is possible today, but
environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for the
development of a tropical depression or tropical storm when the
disturbance moves near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.
Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, gusty
winds and heavy rainfall are expected across Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands today, and over portions of Hispaniola and the
southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in
the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this disturbance, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required with short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

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