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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 190301

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
224 UTC Tue Jun 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 


Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta centered near 18.2N 103.6W at
19/0300 UTC or 80 nm W of Lazaro Cardenas Mexico moving NW at 3
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm east and 120
nm west semicircles. Rough seas and surf can be expected in the 
near shore waters of southern Mexico associated with this system
through early Tue, especially from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro 
Cardenas. Carlotta is expected to continue moving slowly NW and 
generally parallel to the coast before dissipation of the 
central circulation within the next 12 to 24 hours. However, 
areas of heavy rain are possible over southern portions of the 
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima during this time. 
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. 


The axis of tropical wave is near 94W moving westward near 10 
kt. Convection associated with this wave is occurring along the 
monsoon through with isolated convection elsewhere both to the 
east and west of the wave axis. This wave will also provide 
moisture for active convection across the coastal zones of 
Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next 24 to 48 hours.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 07N91W to
10N99W. It resumes from 14N106W to 09N122W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N122W to 07N128W to 09N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection was noted from 06N to 09N between
82W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted from 08N to 10N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate 
convection was noted from 06N to 11N between 109W and 124W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N 
to 10N between 136W and 140W. 



Please read the Special Features section for details about 
Post Tropical Cyclone Carlotta.

Moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja 
California this afternoon, with afternoon heating enhancing 
winds to near 20 kt across a few coastal areas. This pattern is 
expected to continue for the next few days, with late afternoon 
heating enhancing winds to around 20 kt through the evening 
hours. Seas currently range 5 to 7 feet in NW swell and will 
diminish very slightly through Wednesday. Increasing NW to N 
winds are forecast along and offshore of southern and central 
California, which will generate an increase in northerly swell 
moving into the Baja waters Thu through Sat. 


The monsoon trough will meander between 08.5N and 10N during the
next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7
ft S of 10N through tonight before subsiding. A new and larger 
pulse of long period SW swell will reach the waters W of Ecuador 
by Thursday, with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft, except in 
the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate
S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. 


Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow covers the area north of 
15N and westward of 115W, as a weak and narrow ridge extends SE 
into the area from a 1024 mb high near 45N136W. The ridge will 
change little in strength and orientation through Wed before it 
begins to strengthen. Mainly moderate tradewinds and seas less 
than 8 ft will prevail through Wed south of this ridge, before 
the strengthening high produces a modest increase in tradewinds 
and seas south of 26N and west of 128W Thu and Fri.

A new pulse of SW to S swell generating across and east of 
French Polynesia will cross the equator on Wed, and is expected
to arrive across the regional waters Wed night. Seas across the 
offshore waters of Central America will build, reaching 6-9 ft