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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211523
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1505 UTC Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 02N94W to 02N102W. The 
ITCZ continues from 02N102W to 03N120W to 07N130W to 08N140W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 07N to 11N W of 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas will prevail in the 
Gulf of California through Thu. A cold front will reach northern 
Baja Thu evening. Fresh westerly winds are likely to develop 
ahead of the front over the Gulf of California N of 29N Thu night
and Fri morning, then subside Fri as the front moves S and 
weakens. High pressure building NW of the region will then bring
fresh to strong NW winds to the Gulf of California this weekend,
with seas building to about 5-7 ft. 

High pressure currently N of the area will support moderate NW 
to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula today accompanied by NW swell 
of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 25N. This area of high seas will spread 
SE across the offshore waters W of Baja this evening then decay 
through Thu. The high pressure will become reinforced on Fri 
behind a weakening cold front, which will bring fresh to locally
strong NW winds W of Baja California Norte Fri through Fri 
night, spreading offshore the remainder of Baja California Fri 
night and Sat, with seas building to 8-9 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-
25 kt late Thu night and Fri, with seas peaking around 8 ft 
during this short gap wind event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 90W through Sun 
morning, with seas building to 8-9 ft during the overnight and 
early morning hours.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure centered well N of the area has a ridge that
extends SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger high pres 
arriving by Fri behind a dissipating cold front. The pressure 
gradient between the high and lower pressure associated with the 
ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across most of 
the tropical waters W of 115W and N of the ITCZ through the
upcoming weekend.

Long period NW swell greater than 8 ft dominates the area N of 
10N and W of 110W. Strong high pres building N of the discussion
area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas 8 to 12 ft 
roughly from 08N to 25N W of 120W Fri and Fri night. This area 
will slowly shift westward on Sat and Sun.

$$
Latto

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Feb-2018 15:23:47 UTC