531 
AXPZ20 KNHC 311528
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave moving across Central America has
been relocated to near 90W, to the north of 06N, based on recent
satellite and precipitable water imagery. The wave is interacting
with an elongated middle-level trough and the land mass, and is 
moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is observed across the SW Caribbean behind the wave, 
while scattered moderate isolated convection is seen from 07.5N 
to 14N between 84W and 100W. Active convection is expected with this
system through the weekend and early next week while it moves 
slowly westward, and well to the south of the coast of Mexico.
However, development of this system appears unlikely through
early next week. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia
near 10N73.5W to 11N86W to 09N112W. The ITCZ extends from 
09N112W to 08N117W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 14N between 84W and 
99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N
to 09.5N between 119W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge
southeastward to the waters well offshore of Cabo Corrientes. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a 
trough over north central Mexico supports moderate northwesterly 
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to
20N. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell off 
Baja California Norte, and to around 6 ft off Baja California 
Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 
4-5 ft range in SW swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf
of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease 
at times to 3 nm or less. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec within 75-90 nm of the coast.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail 
off the Baja California peninsula through early next week. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open 
waters. Seas will remain 8 to 9 ft in long period NW swell off 
of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy conditions may 
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region and extend across most of the waters of Nicaragua
to 91W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 6-7 ft range across the Papagayo region, and 4-6
ft in SW swell elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue off the 
Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern 
Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to
around 5 nm or less. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is seen across the waters north of 07.5W from the
nearshore waters of Costa Rica to well south of Tehuantepec. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are expected across 
the Papagayo region through early Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Active
weather associated with the tropical wave moving into the area
today will gradually shift west of 90W by Sat evening. Hazy 
skies from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and 
Central America may reduce visibilities over portions of the 
Central American offshore waters the next few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 35N144W and extends a
broad ridge south and southeastward across the region N of 20N. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon 
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds S of 28N. Seas of 
6-9 ft in N to NE swell prevail across all but the far NW waters,
where gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail. 
Northerly swell is producing seas of 8-9 ft to the waters N of 
27N between 118W and 127W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas 
of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Scattered
moderate to strong thunderstorms are occurring along and north of
the ITCZ to the west of 120W, supported by an upper-level trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days. The active
convection along the ITCZ will gradually shift westward and
weaken through the weekend.

$$
Stripling