531 AXPZ20 KNHC 311528 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave moving across Central America has been relocated to near 90W, to the north of 06N, based on recent satellite and precipitable water imagery. The wave is interacting with an elongated middle-level trough and the land mass, and is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed across the SW Caribbean behind the wave, while scattered moderate isolated convection is seen from 07.5N to 14N between 84W and 100W. Active convection is expected with this system through the weekend and early next week while it moves slowly westward, and well to the south of the coast of Mexico. However, development of this system appears unlikely through early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N73.5W to 11N86W to 09N112W. The ITCZ extends from 09N112W to 08N117W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 14N between 84W and 99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 09.5N between 119W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge southeastward to the waters well offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over north central Mexico supports moderate northwesterly winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to 20N. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and to around 6 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-5 ft range in SW swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec within 75-90 nm of the coast. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail off the Baja California peninsula through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open waters. Seas will remain 8 to 9 ft in long period NW swell off of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend across most of the waters of Nicaragua to 91W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range across the Papagayo region, and 4-6 ft in SW swell elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue off the Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm or less. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen across the waters north of 07.5W from the nearshore waters of Costa Rica to well south of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through early Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Active weather associated with the tropical wave moving into the area today will gradually shift west of 90W by Sat evening. Hazy skies from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American offshore waters the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 35N144W and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward across the region N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds S of 28N. Seas of 6-9 ft in N to NE swell prevail across all but the far NW waters, where gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail. Northerly swell is producing seas of 8-9 ft to the waters N of 27N between 118W and 127W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are occurring along and north of the ITCZ to the west of 120W, supported by an upper-level trough. For the forecast, little change is expected to the current conditions over much of the area the next few days. The active convection along the ITCZ will gradually shift westward and weaken through the weekend. $$ Stripling
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-May-2024 15:28:41 UTC