AXPZ20 KNHC 031544
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin this afternoon as a
ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf
of Mexico. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force mainly at
night starting tonight through Wed night. Seas may reach 10 to
12 ft downstream of the strongest winds during the overnight
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N118W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N118W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 100W
and 105W, and from 05N to 10N W of 122W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends along the eastern shore of the Gulf of
California, west of a 1020 mb high pressure area over the state
of Coahuila. Farther west, a another ridge extends from 1028 mb
high pressure located near 32N129W to near Cabo San Lucas.
The most recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh
NW to N winds off Baja California, where seas are in the 5 to 7
ft range. Seas are probably a little higher near Guadalupe
Island due to linger NW swell. Fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft wave
heights are noted over the southern Gulf of California. NW winds
may be fresh to strong over the central Gulf of California. Winds
funneling off the coast of Cabo Corrientes are at least 20 kt.
Farther south, light breezes persist off southern Mexico, with 3
to 5 ft combined seas in mixed swell.
For the forecast, besides the gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section above, high
pressure west of Baja California will continue to build through
Mon, supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds across mainly
the central Gulf of California through Mon night. Looking ahead,
large NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California and
the Revillagigedo Islands Tue through Thu.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE to E winds are ongoing over the Gulf of Papagayo with
seas of 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere,
with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across and well
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region mainly at night through
Thu night as high pressure builds north of area. Gentle to moderate
winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate combined seas will persist
into early next week in a mix of SW and NW swell.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The subtropical ridge extends across the region north of 15N and
west of 110W. This pattern supports a large area of fresh to
strong NE to E winds with seas of 8 to 11 ft, mainly from 09N to
22N west of 115W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined
seas persist elsewhere.
For the forecast, the ridge will gradually weaken early this week,
allowing trade winds to diminish slightly. Reinforcing NW swell
will continue to move into the region west of 120W, maintaining 8
to 11 ft combined seas.