AXPZ20 KNHC 040948
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Dec 4 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will
continue supporting gale-force winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas will drop below 12 ft later
today. Winds and seas are expected to gradually improve by early
Mon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 08N102W to 08N116W. The ITCZ extends from 08N116W to
07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 14N and E of 118W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N and E of 104W and
from 06N to 08N between 128W and 136W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features section for the gale-force gap wind
event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of
Baja California as a 1018 mb high pressure remains located near
27N121W. Seas are 4-7 ft within NW swell across the Baja
California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail in
the central and southern Gulf of California with seas 3-4 ft.
Light winds are noted over the northern Gulf with seas to 3 ft.
Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, outside
of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5
ft are noted in mixed swell.
For the forecast, gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will end by tonight. Seas will drop below 12 ft by this
afternoon. Winds and seas will improve over the region on Mon.
A weak cold front is expected to approach the Baja California
Norte waters on Sun and will dissipate by Mon. This front will
bring NW swell across the Baja Norte waters tonight and will
quickly subside on Mon. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of
California through midweek as high pressure builds across the
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail across the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 90W. Peak seas are estimated at 6 ft. Light
to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough along 08N, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle S to SW
winds and 3-4 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Light to
gentle S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to
the Galapagos Islands with seas 3-4 ft. Scattered thunderstorms
are noted in the Gulf of Panama and off the Colombia coast, N of
04N and E of 82W.
For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo
region will pulse across the area through midweek. Elsewhere,
little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters
of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be
expected across most of the offshore waters region through
midweek, except in the Papagayo region. NW swell generated from
the Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weakening stationary front stretches from 30N124W to 21N139W.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds with seas to 10 ft are near
and north of the front. The front will dissipate today. Its
associated swell will slowly subside through Mon night as it
moves as far south as 07N. Please see the latest High Seas
Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
A 1016 mb high pressure is centered across the NE forecast
waters near 27N121W, and extends a ridge south and southeastward
that covers the waters N of 23N between 110W and 120W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic flow is noted across the area. Fresh to
strong winds are near a trough along 115W from 10N to 16N
between 109W and 115W. Seas to 8 ft are likely within this area.
A surface trough extends north of the monsoon trough along 123W.
Moderate winds prevail in the vicinity of the trough with seas
ranging between 6-7 ft. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, gentle
to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted. Moderate SE to S
winds winds and seas of 6-7 ft are seen S of the monsoon to the
equator and W of 95W.
For the forecast, a reinforcing cold front will enter the NW waters
later today and weaken by Mon night. High pressure will build
across the area through next week. This will strengthen winds to
fresh to strong along with building seas across much of the area
N of the ITCZ and W of 120W by Tue through most of the week.