727 
AXPZ20 KNHC 031552
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 12.3N 107.6W at 03/1500 
UTC, or about 445 nm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving west-
northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180
nm in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted within 240 nm NE quadrant and 210 nm W semicircle. A 
turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast over 
the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the
next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane towards the 
end of this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N104W, then continues
W of Tropical Storm Lidia near 10N110W to 1007 mb low pressure 
near 12N124W to 10N131W to 12N140W. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is seen from 03N to 11.5N between 77W and 100W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N
to 16N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 04N to 10N between 108W and 129W, and from 07N to
12N between 132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on newly formed Tropical
Storm Lidia.

Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters 
of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NNW winds prevail offshore 
Baja California S of 30N. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the 
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec, also shown by the ASCAT. Winds are
moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell 
offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the open 
waters. Seas are 2-4 ft in the southern and central Gulf of
California and 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 14N109W Wed
morning, 15.5N110W Thu morning, strengthen to a 65 kt hurricane 
Fri morning near 16N111W, then change little in intensity as it
moves to near 16N112W Sat morning and 16N114W Sun morning. Lidia
will begin directly affecting Mexico offshore forecast zones 
well to the WSW of Jalisco and Colima, and well to the south of 
Cabo San Lucas Thu and continue into the weekend. Elsewhere, 
moderate seas will not vary much into the middle of the week. 
Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the immediate area of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, possibly increasing to 
fresh to strong this weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will
continue nearshore Baja California from near Punta Eugenia 
southward today. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere 
through the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, except
for moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore southern 
Colombia and northern Ecuador. North of 06N, seas are 4-6 ft in 
S swell. South of 06N, seas are 5-7 ft in S swell. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring in the Gulf
of Panama, southward to 05N.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters through most of the week. New long-period 
southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands by mid-week, with mainly moderate seas
elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to
form a few hundred nm south of the coast of Central America 
during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or 
over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west- 
northwestward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on newly formed Tropical
Storm Lidia. and on a low embedded in the monsoon trough near 
12N124W.

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail N of 12N
and W of 125W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere,
except moderate to fresh S winds south of the monsoon trough
between 102W and 120W. Seas are 7-9 ft in northerly swell N of
19N and west of 125W. Seas are 7-8 ft in SE swell S of 09N 
between 105W and 130W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere in mixed 
swell.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 14N109W Wed
morning, 15.5N110W Thu morning, strengthen to a 65 kt hurricane 
Fri morning near 16N111W, then change little in intensity as it
moves to near 16N112W Sat morning and 16N114W Sun morning.
Elsewhere, the northerly swell across the northern waters will 
gradually decay through mid-week. The low pressure area embedded 
in the monsoon trough near 12N124W is forecast to continue to 
produce moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft on the NW side 
before weakening mid-week while not moving much. Winds of 
moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open 
waters through the next several days. Meanwhile, southerly swell 
of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend
from around 05N southward.

$$
Hagen