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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040246
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 16.5N 112.3W at 04/0300
UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is within 180 nm W semicircle of the center. Paine is
forecast to intensify modestly the next 12 hours before starting
a weakening trend, becoming a tropical depression Wednesday, and
a remnant low Thursday. A north-northwest motion is expected 
through Tuesday night, followed by a gradual turn to the west- 
northwest and west on Wednesday. Please read the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N100W to 11N105W. It
resumes from 12N116W to 11N125W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 120W
and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical
Storm Paine.

Elsewhere, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event
is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to 
moderate NW winds prevail over the offshore waters off the Baja 
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of 
California as well as the remainder open waters off Mexico. Seas 
are in the 4-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 
ft or less over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Paine near 16.5N 112.3W 1006 mb
at 8 PM PDT moving NNW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt 
gusts 45 kt. Paine will move to 17.2N 112.6W Tue morning, 18.0N 
113.1W Tue evening, 18.7N 113.8W Wed morning, weaken to a 
tropical depression near 19.1N 114.2W Wed evening, become a 
remnant low and move to 19.3N 114.7W Thu morning, and 19.3N 
115.4W Thu evening. Paine will dissipate late Fri. Otherwise, 
fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue 
through Tue before diminishing slightly through Thu. Winds will 
once again increase to fresh to strong Thu night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds are south of 03N, and light to 
gentle winds are north of 03N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range 
between the Galapagos and Ecuador, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle winds S of the monsoon trough will 
increase slightly through midweek. Moderate to fresh winds will 
pulse each night in the Papagayo region. SW swell, with seas in 
the 6-8 ft range, between the Galapagos and Ecuador will spread 
northward through the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical
Storm Paine.

Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N, anchored by 1021 
mb high pressure centered near 30N129W. Light to gentle winds are
in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft 
range in NW swell over the far NW waters, and 4-7 ft elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell 
supporting seas of 8 ft or greater over the far NW waters will 
subside tonight. 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 04-Oct-2022 02:46:29 UTC