000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101540
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front is moving across 
the Gulf of Mexico today, resulting in the development of a gap
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec that will reach gale-force
today, then storm-force tonight. Peak seas should reach around 
20 ft tonight and Mon morning. Storm-force winds will end Mon 
morning, but gale- force winds and rough seas will prevail in the
region of Tehuantepec into Wed. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N92W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N92W to 08N122W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong is convection noted from 06N to 10N
W of 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds.

High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is forcing strong to near
gale NW winds over the Gulf of California with seas 6-9 ft. This
wind surge over the Gulf of California is also causing some 
fresh to strong NE gap wind just west of the Baja California 
peninsula. Strong gap winds are also developing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends from a 1029 mb 
high off of California to near the Baja California and SW Mexico 
coasts. Only gentle to moderate winds are resulting over the open
Pacific waters. Seas over Pacific waters are generally 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the high 
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue forcing strong 
NW winds over the central and N Gulf of California through 
tonight. A recurrence of fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf 
of California may begin Thu night. Large NW swell will gradually 
subside off Baja California later today.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the NW 
Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south is forcing fresh to
strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region with seas 6-7 
ft. Gentle to moderate breezes are occurring elsewhere with seas 
3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between higher pressure over 
the W Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south should 
continue forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the 
Papagayo region through the next several days. Gentle to moderate
breezes are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, storm-force gap winds
north of the area over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will generate 
large NW swell that will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters tonight into Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the surface ridging along the W
coast of Mexico and the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E
trades from 06N-21N west of 120W. Seas are 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, 
winds are gentle to moderate with 7-10 ft seas in large NW 
swell.

For the forecast, the surface ridging should weaken by Tue,
diminishing the trades. Seas should drop below 8 ft Wed over the
tradewind belt. Tonight into Mon night, fresh to strong NE winds
associated with Tehuantepec gap winds will reach into the high 
seas waters to 10N105W with seas 8-12 ft. A large, long- period 
swell should reach the NW corner of the waters Wed and gradually
decay while moving SE through the end of the week. 

$$
Konarik