AXPZ20 KNHC 222006
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Pacific Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell following a cold
front continues to propagate across waters N of 23N, with seas
of up to 15 ft along 30N. The seas will gradually subside
tonight. Even as the NW swell decays Thu into Fri, it will mix
with building shorter-period waves associated with northeast
trade winds, with combined significant wave heights reaching to
around 12 ft mainly from 07N to 20N and west of 119W. These seas
of around 12 ft are likely to continue through early Sun before
decaying for the end of the weekend. Looking ahead, strong NW
winds from southern California to Baja California will build
combined seas to 12 to 14 ft N of 25N offshore Baja California to
124W Sat afternoon through Sun before decaying.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 06N90W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N90W to 04N110W to beyond 00N129W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 01N
between 80W and 83W, from 01N to 06N between 108W and 120W, and
from 07N to 13N between 92W and 108W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted elsewhere from 03N to 09N between 119W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to
offshore waters of Baja California near Punta Eugenia. Fresh to
locally strong SW winds are occurring ahead of it in the northern
Gulf of California, but are diminishing. Seas of 3 to 5 ft there.
Mainly moderate to fresh NW winds are behind the front over the
offshore waters. Seas are 8 to 12 ft offshore Baja California
Norte in arriving NW swell. Fresh N gap winds are occurring in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
dominate, except 3 to 6 ft offshore Baja California Sur.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America is
restricting visibility across portions of the waters offshore SW
For the forecast, fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish Thu. The cold front will move SE through the Gulf of
California through tonight while gradually dissipating. Fresh to
locally strong SW to W gap winds ahead of the front in the
northern Gulf of California will diminish as it passes. Fresh to
locally strong NW winds will occur offshore Baja California
behind the front Thu through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California
and near Cabo Corrientes. Large NW swell of 8 to 12 ft issue
arriving behind the front offshore Baja California will continue
through the end of the week, with a reinforcing set this weekend,
possibly building seas up to 12 to 14 ft from offshore Punta
Eugenia northward. That swell will subside to less than 8 ft
early next week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to near gale-force NE-E gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf
of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua per a recent
ship observation, due to high pressure north of the area, with
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh N-NE gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf
of Panama, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle
variable winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central
America and northern South America, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft
mainly due to a long-period south to southwest swell. Smoke from
agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some
visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo
For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across
the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through the next
several days. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected
over the Gulf of Panama through Fri night, with locally strong
winds possible tonight through Thu evening. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central
America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent waters.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see Special Features section above for details on significant
swell over the northern waters tonight into early Thu, then over
the west-central waters Thu night into the upcoming weekend.
A dissipating cold front extends from the central Gulf of
California to across the Baja California Peninsula just S of
Punta Eugenia to 18N126W. Winds behind the front have
diminished to moderate to fresh. High pressure is building behind
the front, and trades have increased to fresh to strong from
about 10N to 25N W of 130W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed NE-E wind
waves and NW-N swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas are noted over the remainder of area waters.
For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build S in the
wake of the dissipating cold front, fresh to strong trade winds
will expand in coverage to around 03N to 25N W of 110W into Sat
night, then diminishing somewhat for the end of the weekend.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front may approach 30N late Mon