000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290353
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from SE Panama near 08N78W to 07N93W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N93W to 06N110W to 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 101W and
136W. 

Scattered strong convection is located just inland over
portions of SW Colombia and western Ecuador. These storms could
lead to localized areas of moderate flash flooding through the
next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending to the Baja California offshores area
from the west is starting to weaken. Moderate NNW winds prevail
west of Baja California, with seas of 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of 
California, winds have diminished from earlier, and are now
moderate from the NW over the southern half of the Gulf, and
light to gentle and variable over the northern Gulf. Seas are 3-5
ft over the southern Gulf of California and 1-3 ft over the
northern Gulf. Moderate N winds with 6-7 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere west of 106W. Gentle winds with seas 3-6 ft are noted
east of 106W.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to enter the waters 
west of Baja California Norte on Wed and then move into the 
northern Gulf of California Wed night. The front will reach from
the southern Gulf of California to Cabo San Lazaro late Thu 
night before dissipating early Fri. Strong to near gale force SW 
winds and seas building to 7 ft are expected over the northern 
Gulf of California in advance of the front Wed night into Thu, 
with fresh to strong W to NW winds in the wake of the front 
through Thu evening. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected west 
of Baja California Norte behind the front Thu. Large NW swell 
will return to the Baja California offshore waters Thu and Thu 
night behind the front. Strong N winds are expected in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Wed morning through Thu morning as a ridge 
develops across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains 
in Mexico. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft downstream of the 
Gulf to near 13N95W by Thu morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo
region. These winds will extend downwind to 90W by late tonight.
Seas in these waters are 6 to 7 ft, but will build to 8 to 9 ft
by early Wed morning. Fresh to locally strong N winds are likely
currently occurring over the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere offshore Central
America. Light to gentle winds are occurring between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-6 ft in long period S to
SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region
will bring an increase in winds and seas across the gap wind 
areas by Wed night. These stronger pulsing winds will occur 
through at least Fri night. Strong NE to E winds are forecast in 
the Papagayo region tonight into early Wed morning. Afterward, 
strong winds are expected most of the time, pulsing to locally 
near gale force at night. Seas are expected to build to 8-9 ft by
Wed morning in the offshore Papagayo region. Then, seas will be 
8-10 ft late Wed night into Thu morning, and again Thu night into
Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong N winds will prevail in the
Gulf of Panama at night, tonight through Fri night. Seas will 
build to 7-8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama to near 04N81W on 
Thu morning and Fri morning. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Moderate long 
period SW swell will continue to propagate across the offshore 
forecast waters through much of the work- week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh trade winds are present N of the ITCZ to about 21N W of 
129W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in the area of the trade winds over the
west-central waters. A narrowing ridge of high pressure is
oriented east-west along 26/27N across the region, with gentle
winds from 25N to 28N. Seas are 4-5 ft there. Winds are starting
to increase north of 29N due to a cold front approaching from 
the north, which currently extends from 31N129W to 30N135W to 
31N141W. E of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 
generally in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, a cold front will move south of 30N and enter 
the forecast region late this evening. the front will reach from 
30N119W to 25N130W to 25N140W by Wed afternoon, and from 30N112W 
to 26N114W to 20N130W to 21N140W by Thu evening while weakening. 
This is the same front forecast to affect the waters W of Baja 
California and the Gulf of California, mentioned above in the
Mexico section. A significant swell event will follow the front.
Seas in excess of 8 ft will propagate across the northern 
forecast waters on Wed and Wed night, building to 8 to 14 ft N of
24N by 1200 UTC Thu. This swell event will dominate much of the 
waters N of 20N by late Thu, then continue spreading southward 
through Fri night while gradually subsiding in magnitude. Looking
ahead, trade winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong
speeds this weekend west of 125W, from 10N to 20N.

$$
Hagen