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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
(CAG) across Central America and the adjacent western Caribbean 
is forecast to shift west to northwestward over the next several
days. This feature will continue to enhance the existing SW 
monsoon flow, lift the monsoon trough northward across Central 
America, and transport abundant moisture northward. In response, 
pockets of deep convection near Costa Rica and Panama earlier has
shifted northwestward over Nicaragua and Honduras, and becoming 
more widespread. Localized flooding has been reported in 
Nicaragua and Honduras. Mudslides will also be possible in areas 
that receive the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products 
issued by your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends southward from southeastern Mexico across 
Guatemala to the Pacific Ocean near 04N91W. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 08N to the coast of Guatemala and El
Salvador between 87W and 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from central Nicaragua across 11N110W 
to 06N134W. The ITCZ continues from 06N134W to beyond 140W at 
05N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 06N to 10N between 98W and 113W, and from 07N to 11N 
between 125W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 11N to 14N between 109W and 121W, and from 06N to 09N west
of 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of California, S to SE winds are fresh to locally 
strong across the northern part, moderate to locally fresh in the
southern part. Seas are peaking at 4 to 6 ft in the northern 
Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the southern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW 
winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and near Cabo Corrientes. 
Gentle to moderate NW to NNW winds prevail elsewhere off the 
coast of the Baja California peninsula, and also offshore of 
southern Mexico. Light to gentle mainly NW to W winds are 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas in NW swell are 6
to 9 ft west of southern California Norte, and 5 to 7 ft west of
California Sur. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell
prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern 
Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will prevail 
across the northern Gulf of California through early this 
afternoon, then become gentle to moderate by this evening. Fresh 
W to NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas until mid morning.
Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near 
Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. 
Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and 
moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico 
coast will persist through the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy
rainfall across Central America.

Convergent monsoonal winds are sustaining spotty showers and 
thunderstorms near the coast of Costa Rica and Ecuador. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in Central 
America offshore waters. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon 
trough along with 6 to 7 ft seas exist in the offshore waters 
from Guatemala southeastward to Colombia. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail offshore from 
Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, periods of heavy showers and strong 
thunderstorms will persist near the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, 
El Salvador, Guatemala through at least Mon, and reform over the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia on Sun. E to SE 
gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh late Sun 
night through Mon morning. Moderate southerly winds should 
develop offshore from Ecuador by Sun, and then spread 
northwestward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama 
and Costa Rica on Tue. Moderate southerly swell across the 
offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia should briefly drop to
light Sun night through Mon night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southward from a high pressure off the
northern California coast across the northern waters to just 
north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 127W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated
with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to 
fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough and west of 130W. Fresh NNW to N winds and 8 to 
11 ft seas are evident north of 26N between 121W and 130W. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south 
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W, except 6 to 8 ft 
south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands and 110W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active weather 
in this area.

Fresh to locally strong northerly winds well off Baja California
Norte will subside to between moderate and fresh early this
afternoon, then increase again Mon morning. Seas in this area 
will also decrease to 8 to 9 ft by Sun morning. Southerly winds 
south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough should increase slightly to 
between moderate and fresh early next week. Seas between the 
Galapagos Islands and 110W will subside to 6 to 7 ft by early 
Sun morning, then increase to 7 to 8 ft Sun evening through Mon 
as new SW swell arrives. Little change is expected elsewhere 
across the area.

$$

Chan