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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242151
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure over Colombia
to 09N75W to 08N83W, where scatterometer data indicates that it 
transitions to the ITCZ to 07N113W. Another ITCZ segment extends
from 08N120W to 07N139W. Scattered showers noted along the ITCZ 
from 05N to 07N between 105W to 109W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Latest scatterometer satellite data shows light to moderate
anticyclonic flow across the Gulf of Mexico indicating the
high pressure continues to weaken as it shifts eastward. 
Light to moderate north to northeast gap winds will continue
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into tonight. 

Scatterometer satellite data indicates gentle to moderate winds 
South of Puerto Vallarta to San Miguel, Salvador, except moderate
to fresh north to northwest winds over the central and southern 
Gulf of Baja California. Light to moderate are noted off of Baja
California south of Bahia Tortugas. Latest altimeter data indicates
seas of 3-4 ft off of Baja California and 3-5 ft in the central 
Gulf of California.

The abundant atmospheric moisture noted west of central Mexico 
and southern Baja California due to an upper-level trough that is
near 120W is gradually decreasing over water and moving further
inland. Within this area of moisture there are less patches of 
rain present. This activity is spreading east-northeastward to 
the western part of central Mexico. Satellite imagery over recent
hours indicate that this moisture is decreasing with time.

For the forecast, large northwest swell will enter the waters 
off Baja California this afternoon into tonight, reaching as far
south as Cabo San Lazaro by late Tue. Looking ahead, gap winds 
quickly reaching to gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by 
late Fri night as a strong cold front moves across the western 
Gulf of Mexico into southern Mexico deteriorating conditions over
the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Latest  shows the presence of fresh to strong east gap winds 
across the Papagayo region as a strong high pressure over the 
western Atlantic extends to the northern Caribbean and continues 
to support a tight pressure gradient. Light to gentle variable 
winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate 
southwest winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds 
will pulse across the Papagayo region through tonight, with seas
building to 8 ft. These winds will slightly improve to fresh speeds
afterwards through for the rest of the week. Winds will pulse 
moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through the next few 
days. Over the remainder of area, winds should remain tranquil 
for the next several days. Decaying northwest to north swell from
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador
offshore waters today. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A broad area of low pressure system is located west of the area 
near 15N146W. This feature is associated with a persistent and 
broad mid to upper-level trough over the region and a rather 
vigorous large mid to upper-level low that is noted on water 
vapor imagery west of the area near 17N143W. This pattern is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds from 18N to 27N east of 138W.
A large area of moderate rain, with embedded numerous showers 
and possible thunderstorms exists from 10N to 23N between 128W- 
139W. Northwest swell producing combined wave heights of 8-10 ft
is over the area north of 10N and west of about 127W. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and mostly 4-6 ft seas are noted. East 
of 110W, combined seas are 5-6 ft due to a mix of northeast to 
east swell originating from the gap-wind events over the 
Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions that is mixing with longer 
period northwest and southeast swell.

For the forecast, large swell will continue to propagate 
eastward across the northwest part of the basin, with seas 
ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few days. The surface 
trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail across the area over 
the next few days with convection. A dissipating stationary 
front reaches the far northwest part of the area near 30N140W.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin through 
the end of the week.

$$
Torres

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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Jan-2022 21:51:22 UTC