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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



144 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090842
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 13.8N 107.7W at
09/0900 UTC moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
is noted within 270 nm in the northeast quadrant of the low, 
with scattered moderate to strong convection within 150 nm in the
south semicircle of the low. The depression is forecast to
strengthen to a tropical storm this afternoon, then weaken back
to a tropical depression Monday afternoon, becoming a remnant low
early Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern
Colombia near 09N74W to 07N78W to 09N86W to 09N96W to low
pressure near 13.5N107.5W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from
07N120W to 05N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 77W and 81W,
from 07N to 13N between 98W and 103W, within 150 nm southeast of
the monsoon trough between 107W and 113W, and from 03N to 07N
between 124W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression One-E, located southwest of southern Mexico 
near the outer offshore waters boundary.

A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 18N. Light
to gentle winds prevail offshore of Baja California Norte, with
gentle to moderate winds offshore of Baja California Sur. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds are in the Gulf of California. Gentle
to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range 
across the open waters, except 7-9 ft in NW swell across the 
waters off of Baja California Norte.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail
through the middle of the week, except a pulse of fresh to 
strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California late 
tonight. A gap wind event is possible in the Tehuantepec region 
Thu and Thu night. The NW swell offshore of Baja California will 
linger into early next week. Haze from agricultural fires may 
spread offshore and reduce visibilities slightly at times.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed
long period NW and SW swell..

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight 
hours through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will move into the waters Sun
through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression One-E, located southwest of southern Mexico 
near the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary.

A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to 
fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W,
locally strong. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. 
Northerly swell of 7-10 ft continues to propagate across the 
northern waters N of 24N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-9 ft range
across the waters W of 120W in a mix of mainly long period 
southerly and northerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail 
north of the ITCZ through the early part of the week, except 
fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 132W for the
remainder of this weekend due to a locally tight pressure 
gradient. Northerly swell will build north of 20N through the
early part of the week as well as across the west-central 
waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly swell crossing the 
equator today will help to build seas to 8 ft across the 
southern waters.

$$
Lewitsky