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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210305
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 08N94W to
09N101W to 05N114W. The ITCZ axis continues from 05N115W to 
04N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is located within 90 nm south and 150 nm north of the convergence
axis between 104W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends into the offshore waters west of Baja California,
producing moderate NW to N winds across the area, light to gentle
winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across most
of the forecast area, except 6-7 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Seas
remain 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. NW swell will impact
the waters N of Punta Eugenia overnight, with seas building to 8
ft Wed through Thu. 

Gulf of California: A weak cold front will push southward across
the northern part of the Gulf on Wed. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
are expected ahead of the front tonight and Wed night, with seas
building to 5-7 ft with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds are expected over the northern Gulf through Thu 
night, and gentle to moderate southerly winds elsewhere. 

Gulf of Tehunatepec: A weak low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico
and its associated cold front will support a northerly gap wind 
event across the Tehuantepec region late tonight into Thu morning 
with seas building to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure building NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong
winds across the Papagayo area Wed evening through Fri morning,
with associated seas building to 8-9 ft by Thu. Light to gentle 
winds will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Large, long period 
cross-equatorial southerly swell will build seas to 8-9 ft across 
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between strong high pressure well north of the 
forecast area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
supports a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds from 09N
to 30N W of 125W based recent scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 9
ft across this region based on altimeter data. The high pressure
will gradually weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a cold front
approaches from the west. Northerly swell will propagate across 
the waters north of 28N between 120W and 132W through Thu night,
and increase seas in the northern waters to 8-9 ft. Seas will 
subside to less than 8 ft Thu night and Fri. 

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Apr-2021 03:05:20 UTC