000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022122
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough is analyzed from 01S81W to 03.4S88W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N131W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02S to 03.4S between 90W and 96W, and
from 01N to 06N between 136W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. High pressure is building SE toward Baja 
California, causing moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja 
California Norte. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading 
to light to gentle winds. Moderate seas prevail over the open 
waters off Mexico, with slight seas over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient offshore Baja 
California will increase winds to fresh to locally strong through
tonight N of Cabo San Lazaro. The pressure gradient between high
pressure over NE Mexico and the equatorial trough will support 
strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec tonight and Tue 
night. High pressure will build over the waters N of Punta 
Eugenia by mid-week. This will further tighten the pressure 
gradient to support fresh to strong NW winds and building seas 
off Baja California. Rough to very rough seas will then persist 
there through the end of the week and into the weekend.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong gap winds are in the Papagayo region per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data and a METAR site right on the coast, with
similar winds also in the Gulf of Panama, and seas in both areas
at 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are mainly light to gentle with 
slight to moderate seas. Scattered moderate convection is noted
just SW of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in 
the Papagayo area through through the week and into the weekend. 
Winds will increase to 30 kt tonight into Tue morning and Tue 
night into Wed morning, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft downwind 
of the Papagayo region to near 90W. Fresh N gap winds and 
moderate seas will pulse in the Gulf of Panama and just S of the 
Azuero Peninsula, except fresh to strong through Tue night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered just N of the region is dominating much 
of the waters N of 10N. This is leading to mainly moderate or 
weaker NE to E winds N of the Equator along with moderate seas, 
except to fresh from 05N to 21N and W of 135W with seas to 
rough there. A surface trough is analyzed from 07N123W to 
00N121W with scattered moderate convection noted from 03N to 08N
between 118W and 128W.

For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected
into mid-week. High pressure will build over the area Wed and 
Thu, tightening the pressure gradient. As this occurs, areas of 
locally strong winds and rough seas are possible over the NW
waters roughly N of 05N and W of 115W for the latter half of the
week and into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky