000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172122
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to  
03N91W. The ITCZ continues from 03N91W to 07N106W to 07N118W, 
and from 06N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection
can be found from 05N to 08N between 118W and 134W. A surface 
trough is within the ITCZ near 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data show mainly fresh N winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N. A ridge dominates 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This system 
supports light to gentle winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. 
In the Gulf of California, scatterometer data indicate gentle to 
moderate SW to W winds near 30N, and moderate to locally fresh 
NW winds in the southern part of the Gulf and beyond the entrance
to the Gulf to about 22N, including Los Cabos area. Light winds
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 
of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, attention remains focused in the next gap wind
events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The first one is expected to 
begin late on Sun. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 35 
to 40 kt, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft by Sun night. Gale 
conditions and rough seas are expected to persist through late 
Mon. A very strong ridge building across the eastern slopes of 
the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico behind another cold front 
will support the second Tehuantepec event by Tue night. Again, 
winds are forecast to rapidly increase to strong gale force 
speeds, with seas building up to 14 of 15 ft. There is a 
possibility that winds may reach storm force by Wed morning, with
seas building to 21 or 22 ft. The situation will be monitored 
over the next few days, and a Storm Warning may be required.
Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by mid-week should keep aware of this developing 
forecast.

Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters 
of Baja California this weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate
winds with moderate seas. Another set of long period NW swell
will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia early Mon morning
building seas to 8 ft there. In the Gulf of California, expect 
fresh to locally strong NW winds Mon night through early Wed as  
strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin of the United
States. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
will persist elsewhere through at least Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite pass confirms the presence of 
fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds off of the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downwind to about 87W. Wave heights of 5 to 8 ft are
associated with these winds. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate N 
winds are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft S of 08N. Light to gentle 
winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are 
seen elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will
prevail in the Papagayo region over the next several days. The
next gap wind event is forecast in the Papagayo area by Wed 
night as a strong high pressure builds north of area. Light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
Seas generated by strong gale force winds in the Tehuantepec 
area will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and 
El Salvador Mon and Mon night, then again Wed and Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1032 mb high pressure is centered north of area near 34N135W.
Its associated ridge dominates most of the waters N of the ITCZ
and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, including also a surface 
trough near 122W supports an area of fresh to strong winds just N
of the ITCZ to about 16N and W of 117W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft 
within these winds. NW swell continues to propagate across the 
majority of the forecast waters, producing seas of 6 to 8 ft 
across most of waters W of 110W. 

For the forecast, the surface trough along the ITCZ near 122W 
will move westward over the next couple of days. An area of fresh
to strong winds and rough seas will move in tandem with this 
trough due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high 
pressure to the north. In addition, the pressure gradient between
the high pressure and another surface trough approaching from 
the west will bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and building 
seas of 8 to 11 ft across the waters north of 20N and west of 
135W by Sun. 

$$
GR