000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Dec 05 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the area will continue to support strong to gale-force north to northeast winds through at least Sat morning. Winds may diminish below gale-force in the afternoon and evening hours. Thereafter, strong north northeast gap winds will occur into early Sun. Rough seas will persist into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across central Panama to 08N82W to 06N93W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N106W to low pressure near 1011 mb to 07N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 130W and 135W, also within 60 NM north of the ITCZ between 94W and 99W, within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 103W and 107W, between 108W and 112W and within 60 NM north of the ITCZ between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on an ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. High pressure of 1026 mb centered well north of the area near 33N130W continues to maintain moderate to locally fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes generally indicate gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over the central and southern Gulf of California, along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are over the northern Gulf waters. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or lighter winds moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, aside from the ongoing gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, the gradient related to high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to support mainly moderate northwest to north winds and moderate seas across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters for the rest of the week. Winds will diminish this weekend. Meanwhile, winds may increase to strong speeds along the entire length of the Gulf of California Mon night into Tue, possibly reaching gale-force in the northern Gulf waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated Fresh to strong northeast winds are over he Gulf of Papagayo region, reaching downstream of the Gulf to near 92W. Seas over these waters 6 to 8 ft. Farther south, moderate south to southwest winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will continue to support mostly fresh northeast winds over the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong speeds at night, through the weekend. Locally rough seas in northeast swell associated with these winds may occur today. Farther west, rough seas induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will pulse across the remainder of the Central American waters through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle southwest to west winds along with moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough going into the weekend, with the exception of moderate southwest winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia south of 05N through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure system positioned north of the area continues to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 27N to the ITCZ. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the westernmost trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, little change is expected in the western part of the area through the end of the week. In the eastern waters, fresh to locally strong north to northeast winds and rough seas will continue to spread downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo. A new set of long-period NW swell is forecast to enter the NW part of the area this weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas through the rest of the week. $$ Aguirre
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Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Dec-2024 16:04:07 UTC