Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 070912

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 07N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N90W to 09N120W to beyond 07N140W. A surface 
trough is analyzed along 124W from 10N to 17N. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 96W and 116W. 
A few showers are near the northern end of the trough. Similar 
convective activity is from 06N to 08N W of 130W. A few showers 
are near the northern end of the trough.


A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW
swell. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate light and
variable winds over the Gulf of California, with the exception 
of moderate to fresh northerly winds S of 25N. These winds extend
southward beyond the entrance of the Gulf to about 22N. Seas are
3-4 ft within these winds, and 1-2 ft elsewhere across the Gulf.
In the Tehuantepec region fresh N winds are noted per an ASCAT 
pass. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft in NW
swell are across the remainder Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California, supporting
gentle to moderate N winds through Thu. The ridge will strengthen
later in the week, with N winds increasing to moderate to fresh 
by Thu night through Sat. Expect fresh NW to N winds in the 
southern and central Gulf of California tonight through Fri as 
high pressure builds across the Great Basin. These winds will 
build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California Thu 
night and Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Fri night with winds likely
reaching 30 kt tonight through Thu night.


Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are present across the
Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. Seas with 
these winds are 6 to 7 ft. Light to gentle northeast to east 
winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with seas of 3-5
ft. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds along 
with seas of 3-5 ft are present to the south of the monsoon 
trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-4 ft are between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
in the Papagayo region, strongest at night, through tonight. 
Then, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder 
of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters 
of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be 
expected across most of the offshore waters through the next 
several days, except in the Papagayo region. 


A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters, 
anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure located N of the area near 
38N142W. Moderate to locally fresh trades extend from the ITCZ to
20N between W of 118W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this wind zone
based on altimeter data. Mainly moderate SE to S winds and 5-7 
ft seas are present south of the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast 
area over the next 48 hours. A surface trough, embedded in the 
ITCZ, will move westward between 125W-140W over the next three 
days. The pressure gradient between these two features is 
bringing an increase in winds and seas across the west-central 
waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas building to 9 to 
11 ft are expected mainly across the waters from 11N to 25N and W
of W of 125W through Fri. The aerial coverage of these winds 
will decrease during the upcoming weekend with a belt of fresh to
strong trades persisting from 14N to 20N W of 120W Fri night and
Sat. The next cold front is forecast to reach the far N waters 
early on Fri followed by a second front late on Sat. Long period 
northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters
by Sat night into Sun with building seas of 8-12 ft.


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Dec-2022 09:13:05 UTC