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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



393 
AXPZ20 KNHC 112047
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1835 UTC Sat Jul 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.6N 121.0W at 11/2100
UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of 
the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted elsewhere from 12N to 22N between 112W and 124W. A 
weakening trend is forecast to continue while Cristina tracks to 
the WNW. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of tropical wave is near 82W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over 
forecast waters N of 05N E of 85W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, N of 01N. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N
between 98W and 102W. There is currently a medium probability of
tropical cyclone development in association with this wave over 
the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the
next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North Pacific 
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W, from 02N to 20N, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 04N to 09N between 104W and 111W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W from 02N to 19N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N 
between 130W and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 10N96W to 16N112W.
It then resumes W of Cristina near 13N125W to beyond 12N140W. 
Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N E of 90W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N 
to 11N between 92W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 10N to 15N between 120W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristina has moved west of the forecast waters. High
pressure building west of the Baja California peninsula in the 
wake of Cristina will prevail through the middle of next week.
This will support gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds will prevail over 
the Gulf of California this weekend. Winds will freshen over the 
Gulf of California for the first half of next week.

Fresh mainly offshore winds are likely in association with a 
strong tropical wave offshore southern Mexico the remainder of
the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo 
region during the next several days. Winds may pulse locally 
strong during the evening Sun as a tropical wave enters the 
area.

Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail into the middle of next 
week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during
this period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Cristina. 

Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern 
waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and 
seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell.

Cristina will continue to weaken the next couple of days as the 
system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening 
tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will 
tighten through early next week. This will result in a large 
area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas.

$$
AL


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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Jul-2020 20:47:31 UTC