000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252117
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehunatepec region is slated to begin Mon morning as a ridge
continues to build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Mountains in Mexico, behind a strong cold front currently moving
across the Gulf of America. Wind are forecast to suddenly 
increase to 35 to 40 kt, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft by 
early Mon afternoon. Then, winds will further increase to minimal
storm force by Mon evening, with seas building to around 22 ft 
Mon night into Tue morning. At that time, gusty winds to near 
hurricane force may occur. Large seas generated from this strong
gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, 
with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N by Tue 
morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Mon through Tue should be aware of this very strong 
gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this 
hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are 
forecast to diminish below storm force by late Tue morning but 
strong gale force winds of 40 to 45 kt will persist. Gale 
conditions are then forecast to continue through Thu morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details
on this event.

Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows 
that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December.
Storm-force events occur most often in January. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 06N80W to 08N90W to 06N97W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N97W to 05N110W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 90 nm S of
the ITCZ W of 130W. Elsewhere convection is limited.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Similar
wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of California, with the 
exception of moderate to fresh NW in the northern part of the
Gulf. Seas are 1 to 2 ft, except 2 to 4 ft N of 30N. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell dominate 
the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters, including 
the Tehuantepec area.

For the forecast, a very strong gap wind event is forecast to 
begin in the Tehuantepec region by Mon morning, with winds rapidly
increasing to storm force by Mon evening. Very rough seas will 
be associated with these wind speeds. Please, see the Special 
Features section for more information on this event. Otherwise, 
moderate to fresh NW winds are expected in the Gulf of California
Mon through Tue as a high pressure system settles over the SW of
the United States. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to about 89W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within 
these winds. Moderate N winds with slight to moderate seas 
prevail in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted wit the exception of
gentle to moderate southerly S of 03N. Seas are moderate in mixed
SW and NW swell are noted. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist 
in the Papagayo region tonight and Mon. Then, winds are forecast
to increase again to 20 to 25 kt by Mon night into Tue as high 
pressure builds N of area in the wake of a cold front moving 
across the NW Caribbean. These winds will reach near gale force, 
mainly at night Tue through Thu, with seas building to 10 or 11 
ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will continue to pulse in 
the Gulf of Panama through Fri morning. Elsewhere, winds will be
moderate or weaker through the middle of week. Seas generated by
a very strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will 
propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador beginning Mon evening. The highest seas, in the 12 to 
18 ft range in NW swell, are expected on Tue. Rough seas may 
persist through Thu night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge, anchored on a 1022 mb high pressure located near 32N125W,
dominates the N waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is promoting an area of moderate to locally 
fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 15N and W of 120W. Seas are 5
to 8 ft within these winds per recent altimeter data. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE 
wind wave and long period NW swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will move E 
through Tue as a cold front approaches the NW corner of the 
forecast waters. The front will reach from 30N138W to 28N140W by
Mon evening, and from 30N134W to 25N140W by Tue morning. Fresh 
to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front by Mon 
night, then winds will diminish 10 to 15 kt on Tue. Rough seas 
are forecast in the wake of the front forecast to dissipate Tue
night into Wed. High pressure will follow the front.

$$
GR