000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240844
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Vance is centered near 12.4N 102.8W at 24/0900 UTC,
moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with
gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft or 11.0 m. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the center, 
except 60 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is also noted within 420 nm in the NE quadrant,
elsewhere in a band between 180 nm and 570 nm in the SE 
semicircle, 90 nm in the W quadrant, and 180 nm elsewhere in the 
NW quadrant. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest, and 
this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Some 
fluctuations in intensity are possible today, followed by a 
gradual weakening trend beginning tonight and continuing through 
Sun. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and 
continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting 
minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Recent ASCAT
scatterometer data confirmed these winds. Winds will continue to
pulse through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient 
remaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon
hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 07N90W to SE of Vance
near 09N99W. It resumes SW of Vance at 09N104W to 06N117W to
08N124W to 03N138W. The ITCZ extends from 03N138W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
00N to 07N between 80W and 94W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh
winds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending 
southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas.
Gentle to moderate winds are found across the remainder of the 
waters, with slight seas are over the Gulf of California, and 
moderate seas across the remainder of the waters away from Vance 
and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 13.1N 103.1W this
afternoon, 14.3N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.2N 103.7W Sun afternoon,
15.9N 104.1W Mon morning, 16.2N 104.2W Mon afternoon, and 16.6N 
104.3W Tue morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it 
moves to 17.5N 104.4W early Wed. Meanwhile, winds will continue
to pulse to gale force likely through Mon night over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, 
then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle of 
next week. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California 
will linger early this morning before diminishing. Rough seas in 
northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will briefly 
spread across those waters today, subsiding tonight. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from 
Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in 
the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 
moderate to rough seas are between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across 
the discussion waters, except slight seas nearshore Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo
region. Rough seas in southerly swell and moderate to fresh 
winds will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands 
through today. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane 
Vance.

Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas 
in northerly swells are from 10N to 20N and W of 123W. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas away
from Vance.

For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 13.1N 103.1W this
afternoon, 14.3N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.2N 103.7W Sun afternoon,
15.9N 104.1W Mon morning, 16.2N 104.2W Mon afternoon, and 16.6N 
104.3W Tue morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it 
moves to 17.5N 104.4W early Wed. Meanwhile, locally fresh winds
and rough seas over the W-central waters will diminish and 
subside through the early morning. Rough northerly swells will 
push S of 30N in the N-central waters around sunrise today, 
subsiding tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
will persist elsewhere. Swells generated from a frontal system 
just WNW of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE 
of 30N140W late in the weekend into early next week. Looking 
ahead, a new set of southerly swell will push into the S-central 
waters by the middle of next week building seas to rough across 
the waters S of 06N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night.

$$
Lewitsky