000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261541
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.4N 105.7W, or about 230
nm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico at 26/1500 UTC, moving west- 
northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak 
seas are currently around 23 ft or 7 m. Vance is still being 
impacted by west to southwest vertical wind shear. Satellite
imagery shows numerous strong convection within 150 nm of the
center in the NE semicircle and 30 nm of the center in the 
SW semicircle of the center. Vance is forecast to maintain 
its present motion for the next day or so, followed by a turn to
the northwest on Tue and north on Wed. Gradual weakening is
forecast during the next several days. Vance is expected to 
produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 
inches possible, across southern Sinaloa, southwest Durango and 
coastal sections of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. This 
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas 
along steep terrain. Swell generated by Vance will affect portions
of the coast of southern, southwestern and west-central Mexico 
during the next few days. This swell is likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over 
Mexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting 
north to northeast winds of 25 to 35 kt in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as detected by overnight Ascat scatterometer data. 
These winds are forecast to diminish to just below gale force by 
early this afternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant 
locally rough seas will slowly subside through Tue. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to across 
southern Panama, and continues to 08N79W to 09N90W and to 
12N100W. It resumes well to the southwest of Vance at 
09N110W to 07N120W to low pressure near 09N130W 1010 mb and 
to 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 
01N to 08N between 92W-100W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough 
between 132W-135W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
60 nm south of the trough between 110W-113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Vance, and on a soon to end Gale Warning for the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Tropical Storm Vance, 
winds are moderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja
California from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are moderate 
away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight
in the Gulf of California away from the entrance where they are 
higher due to SE swells moving in from Vance.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to gradually
weaken as it moves to near 15.7N 106.6W this evening, to near
16.4N 107.6W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt 
gusts 50 kt, maintain intensity as it nears 17.6N 108.2W Tue 
evening, to near 19.2N 108.4W Wed morning, to near 20.7N 108.4W 
Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and 
weaken to a remnant low near 22.0N 108.2W Thu morning. Vance will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 24.1N 108.0W 
early on Fri. Elsewhere, north to northeast gale-force gap winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish to just below
gale force by early this afternoon as the gradient slackens 
some. Resultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. Winds there
will then pulse at fresh to strong speeds through Thu night. 
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California 
Norte through Tue evening. Moderate or weaker winds along with 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of 
California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast winds and moderate seas are over and 
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo while fresh northwest to north 
winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker 
elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore 
Colombia. Very active convection remains present offshore 
Ecuador, Colombia and Panama as described above with locally 
higher winds and seas possible.

For the forecast, the present fresh to strong northeast winds 
over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to 
mostly fresh speeds this afternoon, then pulse to moderate to 
fresh speeds through the end of the week. The fresh northwest to
north winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish early Tue, then
start up late Wed night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight 
nearshore Colombia. Looking ahead, seas may build to rough state
in southwest south of the Equator by the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical 
Storm Vance.

High pressure covers the area generally north of about 19N and
west of 110W. Overnight Ascat scatterometer data indicated 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 14N to 18N 
between 120W and 130W, or rather between the high pressure and 
northward troughing along the monsoon trough near 130W. A frontal
system is just west-northwest of 30N140W. The associated warm 
front reaches southeastward from 30N140W to 28N138W. The related 
gradient is producing fresh to locally strong southeast to south
winds and rough seas just southeast of 30N140W. Winds are 
moderate or weaker with moderate seas across the remainder of the
open waters away from Vance.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to gradually 
weaken as it moves to near 15.7N 106.6W this evening, to near 
16.4N 107.6W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts
50 kt, maintain intensity as it nears 17.6N 108.2W Tue evening, 
to near 19.2N 108.4W Wed morning, to near 20.7N 108.4W Wed 
evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and 
weaken to a remnant low near 22.0N 108.2W Thu morning. Vance will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 24.1N 108.0W 
early on Fri. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas will persist into around the middle part of the week. Swells
generated from a frontal system just WNW of the discussion 
waters will support with fresh to locally strong SE to S winds 
over the far NW portion of the area into the early part of the 
week. These conditions will spread slightly eastward over the 
waters roughly north of about 28N and west of 138W through Wed. 
Meanwhile, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread 
into the S-central waters later today, building seas to a rough 
state over the waters south of about 05N between 105W and 130W by
late Wed night. These seas are expected to linger through at 
least Fri night.

$$
Aguirre