242 
AXPZ20 KNHC 052127
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 22.1N 120.9W at 05/2100 UTC,
moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100
kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is present from 18N 
to 25N and between 118W and 124W. A similar motion is
expected for the remainder of today. A slight decrease in forward 
speed with a turn toward the west-northwest is possible on 
Sunday. Marie is then expected to resume a northwestward heading at 
a faster forward speed early next week. Swells generated by 
Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest 
Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California 
for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip 
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
 
A tropical wave is along 108W, extending from SW Mexico to 04N, 
moving west at 5-10 kt. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section
for convection info.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N113W, then 
continues from 12N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is occurring from 01N to 16N and east of 109W, 
and from 01N to 09N between 119W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Away from the impacts of Hurricane Marie to the offshore waters
of Baja California, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are evident across the remaining offshore waters 
of Mexico.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie will move to 22.7N 121.6W Sun 
morning, 23.6N 122.6W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm 
near 24.3N 123.5W Mon morning, 24.9N 124.7W Mon afternoon, 25.5N 
126.1W Tue morning, and 26.7N 127.1W Tue afternoon. Marie will 
weaken to a tropical depression over 30.3N 128.7W by Wed 
afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to 
develop in the offshore waters of Baja California and N Gulf of 
California early next week as Marie moves away. The next gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by the middle of next
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft across
the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther south, moderate to fresh 
southerly winds and moderate seas are found south of 04N. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters off 
Central America and Colombia, producing gusty winds and higher 
seas. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western
Atlantic will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient is expected to 
tighten resulting in strong gap winds and rough seas. Meanwhile,
moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several 
days, decreasing some Sun and Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about
Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Aside from the impact of Hurricane Marie in the NE waters, fresh
to strong cyclonic winds and rough seas are occurring from 19N 
to 27N and west of 136W associated with the outer eastern 
quadrant of Hurricane Karina that continues to move away from the
eastern Pacific basin. Meanwhile in the eastern waters, a cross 
equatorial southerly swell is producing seas to 8 ft south of 08N
and between 102W and 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
with seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the 
tropical eastern Pacific.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie will move to 22.7N 121.6W Sun 
morning, 23.6N 122.6W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm 
near 24.3N 123.5W Mon morning, 24.9N 124.7W Mon afternoon, 25.5N 
126.1W Tue morning, and 26.7N 127.1W Tue afternoon. Marie will 
weaken to a tropical depression over 30.3N 128.7W by Wed 
afternoon.

The cross equatorial southerly swell region west of the Galapagos
Islands is expected to diminish below 8 ft tonight. Meanwhile, 
an area of low pressure may develop well offshore of southwestern
Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and a 
tropical depression could form by the second half of next week 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system 
has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. 

$$
ERA