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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 230512

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1212 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0445 UTC. 


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient 
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in  
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting 
winds reaching gale-force strength from 11N to 13N between 74W 
and 76.5W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will 
range from 11 feet to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC High 
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for 
more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
forecast for the areas: in the western part of IRVING and in the
western part of METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 24/0000 UTC, consists of: the 
threat of NW near gale or gale in the western part of IRVING and 
in the western part of METEOR.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W and 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from 
01N28W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 02S39W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward between
12W and 23W, and from 04N southward between 41W and 47W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W



A stationary front is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the upper
Texas coast, into the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas,
to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. The stationary front
continues to the Big Bend of Texas, and the Far West of Texas.
Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low
level clouds, from 93W eastward, and to the west of the line from
30N92W in Louisiana, to 22N97W along the coast of Mexico.

The current stationary front, that is to the north of 24N between
96W and 97W, will weaken overnight, and then dissipate on Friday.
A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf late on Saturday 
night, then stall and weaken from the FL panhandle to NE Mexico 
from Sunday through Monday night.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the 
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N to
19N between 80W and 82W, about 200 nm to the W of Jamaica. Other
rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low 
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals, in
inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 23/0000 
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.45 in Curacao, and 0.31 
in Guadeloupe. 

The winds will pulse to minimal gale-force near the coast of 
Colombia tonight. Strong surface high pressure that is to the
N of the area will support fresh-to-strong trade winds across
the forecast waters that are to the east of 80W through Friday 
night. The area of strong high pressure will weaken from Saturday 
through Monday night, leading to diminishing winds and seas. 


Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between Africa and 35W. A dissipating cold front extends
from a 998 mb low pressure center that is near 31N28W, to 25N22W 
and 17N29W. A shear line continues from 17N29W to 15N40W, 14N50W 
and 15N61W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are from 23N northward between the western part of
the Canary Islands and 30W. Broken low level clouds and other 
possible rainshowers are to the NW and N of the line that passes 
through 32N15W to 23N18W 14N30W 11N50W and 11N60W.

Strong surface high pressure that is near Bermuda will weaken and
shift southward from Saturday through Monday night. A cold front 
will push off the SE coast of the U.S. on Monday, and then become
stationary along 28N on Tuesday. 

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