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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251738

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.


...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant 
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. Please
refer to the local meteorological service for more details. 


A tropical wave has entered the east tropical Atlantic with axis 
along 18W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly 
south of 10N and east 0f 20W. 

A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
with axis along 47W and south of 14N. The wave is moving at about 
15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly 
south of 08N.


The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W
to 04N45W. Scattered showers prevail along this boundary. 


Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1021 mb high 
pressure centered near 29N86W. Fair weather prevails under this 
ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle 
to moderate east to southeast winds across most of the Gulf except
the Straits of Florida, where locally fresh winds prevail. A 
surface trough is analyzed across the Bay of Campeche along 93W.  
Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf 
mainly west of 95W. A few observations near the coast of Mexico
are reporting hazy skies.

High pressure over the SE U.S. will maintain moderate to fresh SE
flow over the NW Gulf through Wed night. Fresh to strong NE to E 
winds will occur each night over the SW Gulf as surface troughs 
move W from the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern 
Mexico will maintain hazy skies over most of the Gulf S of 26N and
W of 94W for the next several days. 


Scattered moderate convection is noted along the south central 
American coast from Honduras across Panama to northern Colombia in
the southern Caribbean. The Pacific monsoon trough in combination
with the a 1010 mb low in northern Colombia is aiding the 
convective activity in the region. See the section above for more 
details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America.

Meanwhile, showers are occurring across the Greater Antilles with
light showers approaching the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle 
trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate winds in the 
northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. 

High pres north of the area will maintain moderate 
to locally fresh trades across the basin through the middle of 
next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the 
adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and 
thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through the first
half of next week. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser 
Antilles Tue and over the eastern Caribbean Wed.


Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves, 
currently moving across the central Atlantic. 

The 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N77W. To the east, a
cold front is approaching the northwest portion of the basin,
currently along 31N between 60W-75W. A 1016 mb surface low is
analyzed near 27N62W, with trough extending from the low to
23N68W. Scattered showers are noted with these features. A
weakening stationary front extends from 31N43W to 26N56W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. 

The cold front in the west Atlantic will move south of 30N and
then stall along 24N by early Mon. The front will dissipate 
through late Mon. A ridge will build behind the front along 
roughly 28N through mid week. The tropical waves will continue
moving west enhancing convection.

For additional information please