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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 171150

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.



Scatterometer winds over the southwestern Caribbean showed E to 
SE tradewinds up to 30 kt near the Colombia coastline. The surface
ridge will build slightly north of the Caribbean during the next 
few days. This will enhance the tradewinds up to minimal gale near
the Colombia coastline Thursday evening, Friday evening, and 
possibly Saturday evening. Conditions should subside slightly on 
Sunday. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of West Africa near 
10N14W and extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point 
to 01N39W to the coast of South America near 00N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. 
No significant deep convection is present along the monsoon 


A 1026 mb high pressure ridge is centered over the southeastern 
U.S. forcing moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf that shifts 
anticyclonically from NE over the eastern Gulf to SE over the 
western. Scatterometer data indicates a weak surface trough near
the SE coast of Texas and NE Mexico from 27N96W to 22N97W. Radar
imagery shows scattered showers occurring along the coastal 
waters of Louisiana and NE Texas. Elsewhere, no significant deep 
convection is currently present over the Gulf. In the upper 
levels, deep trough over the eastern Pacific waters is causing 
upper level diffluence across the western Gulf. As a result, high 
broken to overcast cloud covers are streaming across the western 

High pressure will dominate the basin through Fri. Fresh to 
strong southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf 
Fri night and Sat ahead of a strong cold front expected to reach 
the NW Gulf Sat evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms will 
likely precede the front. A large area of winds to gale force is 
possible behind the front Sat night through Sun night. Strongest 
winds will be near the Veracruz coast Sat night. 


Easterly 10-20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean with no organized
deep convection present. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong
occurring across south-central Caribbean. Isolated showers are 
occurring near the Leeward Islands including Puerto Rico, Jamaica,
the northwestern Caribbean, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 89W. Upper level 
moisture is present across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong 
subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. 

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central 
Caribbean through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW 
Caribbean Sun through Mon. The front will reach the Yucatan 
Channel Sun morning, then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected 
behind the front. 


Scatterometer data shows a weak trough located along the Straits
of Florida from 27N79W to 24N78W. Scattered showers are occurring
near the Southeast Florida coast associated to the trough. The 
tail end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N51W to 
26N61W. A dissipating cold front extends from that point to 24N67W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-31N between 47W- 61W. A
1032 mb high is centered near the Azores at 35N25W with high 
pressure ridging over the E Atlantic. 

A reinforcing surge of cool air will freshen winds east of the 
northern Bahamas today. Weak high pressure will drift eastward 
across the area through tonight. Winds will veer to the south and 
strengthen Sat through Sun morning east of Florida, ahead of a 
strong cold front expected to push off the Florida peninsula Sun 
afternoon. The front will extend from 31N76W to 23N80W Sun night 
and from 31N66W to 22N78W on Mon. Minimal gale force winds are 
possible north of 29N on either side of the front Sun and Mon. 

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