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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXNT20 KNHC 171150 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer winds over the southwestern Caribbean showed E to SE tradewinds up to 30 kt near the Colombia coastline. The surface ridge will build slightly north of the Caribbean during the next few days. This will enhance the tradewinds up to minimal gale near the Colombia coastline Thursday evening, Friday evening, and possibly Saturday evening. Conditions should subside slightly on Sunday. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of West Africa near 10N14W and extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N39W to the coast of South America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. No significant deep convection is present along the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high pressure ridge is centered over the southeastern U.S. forcing moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf that shifts anticyclonically from NE over the eastern Gulf to SE over the western. Scatterometer data indicates a weak surface trough near the SE coast of Texas and NE Mexico from 27N96W to 22N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers occurring along the coastal waters of Louisiana and NE Texas. Elsewhere, no significant deep convection is currently present over the Gulf. In the upper levels, deep trough over the eastern Pacific waters is causing upper level diffluence across the western Gulf. As a result, high broken to overcast cloud covers are streaming across the western Gulf. High pressure will dominate the basin through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf Fri night and Sat ahead of a strong cold front expected to reach the NW Gulf Sat evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely precede the front. A large area of winds to gale force is possible behind the front Sat night through Sun night. Strongest winds will be near the Veracruz coast Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Easterly 10-20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean with no organized deep convection present. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong occurring across south-central Caribbean. Isolated showers are occurring near the Leeward Islands including Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the northwestern Caribbean, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 89W. Upper level moisture is present across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sun through Mon. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun morning, then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scatterometer data shows a weak trough located along the Straits of Florida from 27N79W to 24N78W. Scattered showers are occurring near the Southeast Florida coast associated to the trough. The tail end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N51W to 26N61W. A dissipating cold front extends from that point to 24N67W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-31N between 47W- 61W. A 1032 mb high is centered near the Azores at 35N25W with high pressure ridging over the E Atlantic. A reinforcing surge of cool air will freshen winds east of the northern Bahamas today. Weak high pressure will drift eastward across the area through tonight. Winds will veer to the south and strengthen Sat through Sun morning east of Florida, ahead of a strong cold front expected to push off the Florida peninsula Sun afternoon. The front will extend from 31N76W to 23N80W Sun night and from 31N66W to 22N78W on Mon. Minimal gale force winds are possible north of 29N on either side of the front Sun and Mon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres