Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 210005

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC. 


Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. 


The monsoon trough along the coast of Africa near 09N13W extends 
southwestward to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from 00N22W 
to the coast of South America near 01S45W. Isolated moderate 
convection is from 01S-02N between 30W-38W. 



A cold front extends from N Florida near 28N83W to the central 
Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W, continuing thereafter as a stationary
front to NE Mexico near 25N97W. The front is associated with very
little precipitation, but may spark some isolated showers along 
the frontal boundary through the night tonight. A surface trough 
is located in the Bay of Campeche and has some convective activity
associated with it, within the western half of the bay.

A slowing cold front extends from Tampa Bay Florida 
to 26N90W then becomes stationary to extreme northeast Mexico. 
The front will stall east to west along 26N late this evening. 
Remnants of the front will lift north as a warm front on Sat ahead
of a second cold front reaching the Texas coast around sunrise on
Sun preceded by a line of thunderstorms. This second cold front 
will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on 
Sun night, from the Florida Big bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on 
Mon night, then drift southeast on Tue and finally southeast of 
the gulf waters late Wed. 


Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire
area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the
Colombia/Panama border. Rainshowers cover the area that extends
from Jamaica to the Bahamas near 28N between 70W and 87W in parts
of Honduras. 

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh-to-locally strong 
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through early Sun.
Strong nocturnal trades are then expected to resume on Sun night 
along the north coast of the South America. Northeast swell 
currently across the tropical waters east of the Leewards will 
gradually subside through late Sat. A weakening cold front will 
pass southeast through the Yucatan Basin on Tue night, and wash 
out across the northwest Caribbean during the middle of next week.


The current cold front, that passes through 33N66W, to 30N76W,
to 28N82W in Florida, to 27N87W in the Gulf of Mexico, will reach
from Bermuda to south Florida this evening, and then stall in an
east-to-west sense, along 26N on Sat night. Remnants of this 
front will lift northward on Sunday. Near gale-force SE wind flow
will develop to the north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the east 
of a surface low shifting eastward across the southeast U.S.A.
The surface low will move northeast along the Georgia and South 
Carolina coasts on Tue, and drag a cold front across the northwest
waters during the middle of next week.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Apr-2018 00:05:31 UTC