Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 281024

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over N
Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and The
Bahamas will continue to supports nightly gales pulsing off the
coast of Colombia through at least Mon night. Seas may reach near
12 ft during each early morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS 
National Hurricane Center, for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W near the border with Sierra Leone, to 05N14W, and to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W, to 03N18W, 01N20W, 01N23W,
and to 01N32W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
located within 90 nm either side of both the monsoon trough and
the ITCZ.


High pressure center has shifted east of the area overnight, 
although it continues to dominate Gulf weather. Return SE flow in
advance of a weak cold front will reach fresh to strong levels
across portions of the central and western Gulf today. This front
will move off the TX coast late this afternoon, then stall Sun
along the N Gulf coast, and finally lift N as a warm front Mon.
Another cold front will move off the TX coast Tue, then cross the
N Gulf into Wed.


Please see the above Special Features section for information on
gales off the coast of Colombia.

The strong pressure gradient mentioned above will lead to fresh to
strong winds across much of the central Caribbean as well as Gulf
of Honduras through at least Mon. Seas in the south-central
Caribbean will reach 8 to 10 ft by Sun, when the gradient will be
tightest. The pressure gradient will relax toward the middle of
next week, and conditions will improve.

Scattered showers are moving quickly west in the trade winds over
the E Caribbean, and this pattern will prevail into early next


A cold front is located from 31N48W to 23N63W, with a stationary
front continuing SW to Puerto Rico. Scattered thunderstorms are
along the cold front. This front will move today and gradually 
dissipate on Sun. NW swell behind the front is leading to an area
of 8 to 10 ft seas to the N of 25N. Also behind the front resides
a 1020 mb high pressure centered near 28N71W. This ridge will
remain in place through early next week. Farther east, a 1024 mb
high pressure centers near 31N37W. This ridge is leading to
moderate to fresh trade winds to the S of the ridge, leading to an
area of 7 to 9 ft seas.

A second cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast early on 
Monday. Strong SW winds are expected N of 25N, from Tuesday night 
into Wednesday, in advance of the next cold front. Strong NW winds
are expected behind the front, with the sea heights ranging from 
8 to 11 ft.


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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Mar-2020 10:25:16 UTC