Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 191119

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward 
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will 
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing
each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the 
southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. A gale is presently on
going and is forecast to end shortly on 19/1200 UTC. Please refer
to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under 
AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 07N11W and 
extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W 
to the coast of South America near 03S42W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 06N- 
04S between 05W-26W. Similar convection is along the ITCZ from 
01N-03S between 36W-50W. 


As of 19/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from Melbourne 
Florida to Sarasota Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico 
near 27N90W to the NW Gulf near 26N95W to the Bay of Campeche 
near 19N91W. Overcast low stratus and fog are noted northwest of 
front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly
winds north of the fronts, while gentle to moderate southerly 
winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. 

The front will lift north as a warm front today, ahead of a cold 
front moving off the Texas coast late tonight. The cold front will
stall from southeast Louisiana to Tampico Mexico Wed night into 
early Thu, before lifting north again as a warm front through Fri.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the Texas coast 
by late Sat.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more 
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central 
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the 
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the 
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere 
continues to dominate the region.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong 
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of 
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sat.
NE to E swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward 
and Leeward Islands late in the week. 


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 30N74W. A
stationary front continues to Melbourne Florida near 28N81W. 
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Surface ridging 
prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high over the 
W Atlantic near 27N67W, and a 1025 mb high over the E Atlantic 
near 34N21W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds 
across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the 
central and eastern Atlantic.

Over the W Atlantic, the front will stall along 27N today. The 
portion of the front W of 75W will lift N of the area as a warm 
front through early Wed, while the portion east of 75W dissipates 
and high pressure builds near Bermuda. The high pressure will 
shift SW to halfway between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda 
through Sat as a strong frontal boundary moves though the central 

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Feb-2019 11:19:43 UTC