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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 221051

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
551 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.


A 1016 mb low is presently located NW of the Canary Islands near
31N20.5W, moving SW and deepening. Meteo France is forecasting 
near gale to gale for the zone of Canarias until Sunday 23/1200 
UTC. The outlook for the next 24 hours calls for near gale to gale
for zones Irving, Madeira, Meteor, Canarias, and Tarfaya. See the
Meteo France website: 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 01S30W to the 
coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 02S-05S between 16W-23W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 04N-05S between 25W-45W. 


A 1035 mb high is centered over Mississippi near 34N90W producing 
15-30 kt NE winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast 
cold air stratocumulus clouds cover the basin S of 29N.  

Strong to near gale force NW winds will prevail this morning 
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, with fresh to locally strong NE winds 
elsewhere across the Gulf. This winds will diminish through the 
weekend as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf. Another 
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue, followed
by a stronger front Tue night into Wed. By Wed night, this front 
is forecast to be SE of the area. Behind the front, gales are 
likely in the SW Gulf Wed and Wed night.


As of 22/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from E Cuba near 21N76W 
to Belize near 17N88W. The front is mostly void of precipitation.
20-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front, to include the 
Yucatan Channel. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the central and E 
Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In 
the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted. 

Strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse each 
night through early next week. A cold front that early this 
morning stretches from E Cuba to Belize will reach from Hispaniola
to Nicaragua by tonight, then stall from Puerto Rico to Costa 
Rica for the start of next week. Fresh to locally strong winds 
will prevail behind the front through the weekend, especially 
through the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Another cold 
front is likely to move into the NW Caribbean Wed night.


As of 22/0900 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 
31N60W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 90 nm of the front N of 27N. A surface trough is E of the 
Leeward Islands from 19N57W to 14N57W moving W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the trough axis. A 1033 mb high is centered 
over the Azores near 39N25W. A 1016 mb low is NW of the Canary 
Islands near 31N20.5W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
low center. The low is expected to move SW over the next 24 
hours and deepen. Near gale to gale force winds over the Canary 
Islands. See the Special Features section above. 

The W Atlantic cold front will move SE through the weekend, 
reaching Hispaniola tonight, then stalling over Puerto Rico by the
start of next week. Near gale conditions are expected behind the 
front today, and if low pressure develops along the front tonight,
another round of near gale conditions are possible N of 23N and E
of 65W for the latter half of the weekend. Large N swell 
associated with the front will spread SE through the weekend while
gradually decaying. Winds and seas will diminish early next week,
then increase over the NW waters Mon night through Wed ahead of 
the next cold front.