AXNT20 KNHC 241802
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Remnants Of Kirk centered near 10.0N 39.5W at 24/1500 UTC or 930
nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 20 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 05N-15N between 36W-43W. Kirk
no longer has a closed circulation thus advisories are no longer
being continued. The system is now a tropical wave along 39.5W
south of 16N. A scatterometer pass showed gale force winds. A gale
is also within 120 nm N Semicircle with seas to 14 ft. See the
last NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. Also see High Seas
forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 32.5N 48.0W at 24/1500
UTC or 1080 nm W of the Azores moving E at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is E of the center from 26N-37N between 40W-49W. A
turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast
through tonight. Leslie is forecast to strengthen by mid-week
while it interacts and eventually merges with a frontal system.
See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.
A broad 1012 mb low is centered NE of the Bahamas near 29N73W. A
surface trough extends S from the low center to 25N75W. Scattered
moderate to isolaterd strong convection is from 27N-34N between
68W-75W. Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly
more conducive for development during the next day or so while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday
night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase,
limiting the chances for additional development, while the system
moves northward near the southeastern United States coast. There
is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.
A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa along 16W from
03N-16N, moving west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with
this wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery
shows abundant moisture in its environment. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-17N between 10W-23W.
A tropical wave is along 53W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10-15
kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in TPW imagery.
Model analyses also depicts an associated 700 mb trough.
Scattered showers are located from 07N-14N between 46W-54W.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N17W to
07N27W. The ITCZ begins near 07N27W to 09N37W, then resumes west
of the remnants of Kirk near 08N40W to 05N52W. There is no
additional convection along the monsoon trough and ITCZ, outside
of the tropical waves and the remnants of Kirk.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level low is centered over the N Yucatan Peninsula near
22N89W. Scattered showers prevail over the Yucatan Peninsula and
the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and E of 90W. A large upper-level
high is centered over N Mexico near 24N106W. Northerly upper-
level flow is over the W Gulf.
The tropical wave formerly over the Bay of Campecheis is now
confined to the E Pacific. Further N, a stationary front extends
from E Texas near 30N93W to 25N94W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 90 nm of the front.
Expect the front to dissipate tonight. Scattered showers will
persist over the NW Gulf however through Thursday. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across
most of the basin through the middle of the week. A surface
trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening, shift
W over the SW Gulf each night, then dissipate by the morning
hours. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany this trough.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
continues to enhance scattered moderate to strong convection over
the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 78W-84W. Elsewhere, scattered
showers are over the NW Caribbean W of 80W. Expect moderate to
fresh winds to prevail over the central Caribbean through Friday.
Currently, there are three tropical waves, and a subtropical
storm over the Atlantic. See the sections above for details.
A weakening stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
31N40W to 26N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm
either side of the front.
In the tropics, a surface trough is just E of the Leeward Islands
from 18N57W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the trough. Elsewhere, visible satellite imagery shows a
large area of dust over the tropical Atlantic from 07N-25N between
34W-51W, moving W. This area of dust is basically surrounding the
remnants of Kirk.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 41N25W.
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