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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 141149

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is currently moving eastward across the Gulf 
of Mexico. As of 14/0900 UTC, the front extends from central 
Florida at 28N80W to the N Yucatan Peninsula at 21N90W to S Mexico 
at 18N93W. Gale force winds are occurring west of the front S of 
24N. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale on 15/0600 UTC. 
Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. 


A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis along 67W from 15N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm 
of the wave axis. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N15W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 04N30W to the coast of
South America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 05N-09N between 18W-28W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 38W-51W, and from 
06N-11N between 51W-57W.


A strong cold front extends across the basin, with gale force 
winds prevailing over portions of the western Gulf of Mexico. See 
the Special Features section above for more details. Isolated 
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front S of 24N. 
Overcast multilayered clouds are W of the front mostly due to a 
strong upper level jetstream from S Mexico to the Florida 


A surface trough is over the NE Caribbean from 23N63W to 16N67W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection from 18N-23N between 60W-70W.
An upper-level low is centered over E Hispaniola near 19N69W. 
Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection 
over the Leeward Islands. Significant development of this system 
is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and the 
interaction with islands of the Greater Antilles. 

In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted south of 12N between 76W-82W, due to the eastern extent of 
the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is also inland over N Colombia, Panama, and 
Costa Rica.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trade winds 
over most of the Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave over the SE 
Caribbean will reach the ABC Islands today.

Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow a cold front
entering the Yucatan Channel this evening. Fresh northerly winds 
and seas to 10 ft will spread across the northwest Caribbean into 
Fri behind the front, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front 
stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. 


A cold front is off the NE coast of Florida from 32N77W to central
Florida near 28N80W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the front. Further E, scattered moderate convection is over 
the W Atlantic from 30N-32N between 74W-75W. A 1028 mb high is 
over the central Atlantic near 35N48W. The tail-end of a cold 
front is over the E Atlantic from 32N30W to 29N40W. Scattered 
showers are within 60 nm of the front.

High pressure over the NW Atlc will shift ESE ahead of the cold 
front moving off the northeast Florida coast. The front will reach
from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu
night into Fri. Meanwhile A trough across Puerto Rico extending 
NNE into the adjacent Atlc will move W across Hispaniola today, 
and through the southern Bahamas by late Thu. As the trough 
reaches the Bahamas along 75W early Fri it will recurve northward 
to the east of the central Bahamas ahead of the cold front, then 
move north of the area Sat as the cold front reaches from Bermuda 
to eastern Cuba. 

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