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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 291031

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.


...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre will develop in the eastern North 
Pacific Ocean within the next couple of days. The gyre will move 
northward, toward Central America and southern Mexico, during 
the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push abundant moisture into 
parts of Central America through the weekend, and into the next 
week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America, 
especially from northern Costa Rica northward into southern 
Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash 
floods and mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest 
amounts of rainfall, especially areas of mountainous terrain. 
Please read the bulletins and forecasts from your local weather 
service for more information.


A tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 20N southward, moving 
westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to 
locally strong is within 90 nm of the southern side of 
Hispaniola, between 70W and 76W between Cuba and Jamaica.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, 
to 07N18W, to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W, to 05N37W 
and to 03N44W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is 
from 05N to 10N between 10W and 17W, within 360 nm to the south 
and southeast of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to 
strong is within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ, between 26W 
and 40W; and from 03N to 08N between 44W and 55W. Isolated 
moderate is from 10W eastward.


An upper level trough passes through central Texas, southward, 
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: 
scattered to numerous strong is from 24N to 29N between 88W and 
95W. A stationary front is along southern Louisiana, into the 
central and southern sections of Texas. 

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to 
the southwestern corner of Florida. Precipitation: isolated to 
widely scattered moderate between 79W and 86W.  

The stationary front will drift into the northwest and north 
central Gulf of Mexico overnight, then stall and dissipate in 
the NW Gulf through Saturday. A second and reinforcing front 
will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. 
The second cold front will weaken, as it drifts southward into 
the northeast Gulf of Mexico, through early next week.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information 
about the heavy rainfall that is expected in Central America, 
during the next few days. 

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, continues to 
cover the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. The upper level 
cyclonic wind flow and trough are the southern extensions of an 
Atlantic Ocean trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to 
locally strong from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the 
Atlantic Ocean, between 60W and 70W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the 
Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and 
lingering showers, cover the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica westward.

The current tropical wave, that is to the south of Haiti will 
continue moving across the western Caribbean Sea through Sunday. 
Widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected in the 
southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea, and in adjacent sections 
of Central America and South America, into the next week.


An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow in the 
Atlantic Ocean between 47W and 72W. A 1017 mb low pressure 
center is near 25N55W. A surface trough extends from 29N50W, 
through the 1017 mb low, to 20N61W. Precipitation: widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to 720 nm 
northeast of the low, in the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate is 
elsewhere within 240 nm to the north of the surface trough, and 
within 300 nm to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, in the 
Atlantic Ocean.

Weak high pressure to the north of the area will move eastward 
on Sunday, in advance of a cold front moving off the NE Florida 
coast. The cold front will reach from Bermuda to Palm Beach 
Florida on Monday. The cold front will stall, and dissipate 
along 25N, through Tuesday night.