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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 230527

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N06W 
to 00N12W. The ITCZ continues from 00N12W to the coast of Brazil 
near 05S36W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
south of 04N and west of 19W. 


A 1021 mb surface high is located over the central Gulf near 
28N91W. with this, moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the
basin. No deep convection are present across the Gulf as strong 
upper-level subsidence prevails. 

High pressure will slide east into the west Atlantic through the 
weekend. This will produce gentle to moderate winds through Sat 
morning before fresh SE return flow develops west of 92W Sat 
afternoon and evening. A cold front will sink southward across the
northern Gulf waters Tue and reach the Yucatan Channel on Wed. 
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected behind the front E of 


A stationary front extends from E Cuba near 20N76W to 14N81W. A 
surface trough continues from that point southwest to 11N82W. 
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm n either side of the 
front/trough. Scattered showers are occurring over the Greater
Antilles. Moderate trades prevail across the basin. The 
exception, as usual, is the area within 90 nm off the coast of
Colombia, where winds will pulse to fresh overnight. are winds 
just north of Colombia, which are up to fresh to strong NE breeze 
as observed by a scatterometer pass. Seas across the Caribbean 
remain below 8 ft.

The front will drift southeast across the west Caribbean today 
before dissipating. Expect moderate to fresh northerly winds 
behind the front through Sat. The remnants of the front will drift
westward across the NW Caribbean as a trough through the weekend.
Fresh to strong NE winds are expected along the coast of Colombia
through mid-week. Northeast swell from the Atlantic will move 
through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola through late Sun.


A cold front extends from 31N60W to the eastern Bahamas near 
22N72W. The front becomes stationary to 21N75W. Scattered showers
are noted within 60 nm of the front. A trough extends behind the
front from 31N66W to 26N72W. SW winds north of 27N ahead of the 
cold front are up to moderate to strong breeze. Elsewhere across 
the Atlantic, tranquil conditions continue as surface ridging 

The front will reach the SE Bahamas by this morning. The front is
expected to reach far eastern Cuba near 75W by Sat afternoon, 
then begin to dissipate from 24N65W to the SE Bahamas along 23N75W
by Sun afternoon. Swell generated by the front will dominate the 
waters east of the Bahamas through the weekend. A new cold front 
is forecast to reach the north waters late on Tue and sink 
southward across the NW half of the area through Wed. Low pressure
is expected to develop along the front Tue through Wed near 
Bermuda and produce strong to near gale force northeast winds 
across the far northern waters. 

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