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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 191756

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.


...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Winds are increasing to near gale off the coast of Morocco in the
marine zone Agadir. Expect N to NE winds to gale force in Agadir 
today. Near gales will spread to the marine zone Canarias. Near 
gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir on Monday. For 
more information, please see the latest forecast from Meteo France
at /previsions-meteo- 


The monsoon trough exits the coast of Sierra Leone in Africa near
07N12W and extends to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point 
to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate and 
convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 
11W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the
the ITCZ from 02S to 02N west of 45W to the coast of Brazil.


A ridge of high pressure roughly extends along 30N across the 
Gulf. A medium-strength pressure gradient between the ridge and a
1003 mb low over central Mexico are producing SE moderate to fresh
conditions, as observed by a scatterometer pass and several ships
and oil platforms. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present from a squall line extending from Mississippi to
Louisiana. Radar imagery show most of the activity gradually 
moving southeast into the northern Gulf waters of Louisiana.
No substantial deep convection is observed for most of the Gulf 
of Mexico, though some showers are occurring over Florida Bay. 

The gradient between a ridge across the northern Gulf and lower 
pressures in northern Texas will support strong SE to S winds and 
building seas over the western Gulf Mon night through Thu night. 
Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility 
west of about 91W, with recently observed visibilities as low as 3
to 5 miles primarily over coastal locations in Mexico to southern
Texas and in the Bay of Campeche. This reduced visibility may 
continue during the next several days.


A medium-strength pressure gradient due to 1022 mb Bermuda High 
near 31N67W and a 1010 mb low pressure over NE South America is 
producing generally moderate tradewinds across the Caribbean Sea.
The exceptions are the strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of 
Honduras and the strong E winds north of Colombia. Scattered to
moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of Colombia 
from 12N to 09N associated to the Pacific monsoon trough which 
extends from the 1010 mb low pressure near the coast of Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are present 
near Panama and Nicaragua. Scattered shower activity is also 
present between Haiti and Puerto Rico.

Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of 
the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Expect
thunderstorms and rainfall to increase during the next few days 
for the SW Caribbean south of 14N west of 75W, and over portions 
of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh trades are
forecast for the Tropical N Atlc the next few days.

Smoke and haze from fires in the Yucatan of Mexico, Guatemala,
Belize, and Honduras may reduce visibilities in the Gulf of 
Honduras during the next several days.


A stationary cold front extends from 31N49W to 28N60W with the
tail end of the front weakening to near 27N63W. Scattered showers
are present within 100 nm east of the front north of 28N. A 
surface trough is located east of the Bahamas from 26N64W to 
21N71W, forced in part by divergence from an upper- level low 
north of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is present 
over the Bahamas. The stationary front bisects an elongated E-W 
ridge extending from the NE Florida coast to a 1021 mb Bermuda 
High near 31N67W to a 1026 mb Azores High near 33N28W. A weak
trough is also present from 27N76W to 23N78W. Scattered activity
is near the vicinity of the trough. Due to a weak to medium-strength
N-S pressure gradient, the tradewinds are generally be fresh to 
moderate. A large pressure gradient between the Azores High and 
low pressure over the Saharan Desert is causing strong winds off 
of NW Africa. See Special Features section above for more details.

The aforementioned stationary front in the W Atlantic will weaken
and dissipate later today. Moderate trade winds are expected 
across most of the region as high pressure remains in place 
through early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to 
form by Monday several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This 
system could develop into a short-lived tropical or subtropical 
cyclone late Monday or Tuesday while moving northward or 
northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become 
unfavorable for further development by Wednesday. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT today. Please
see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at

For additional information please