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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 162338
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
738 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade 
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with
winds briefly increasing to gale-force over the NW coast of 
Colombia by Wed night due to low pressure over northern Colombia 
deepening. Seas will build to 8-14 ft as a result of these winds. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa, with axis along 19W
from 05N-20N, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted east of the wave axis south of 12N between
10W-20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from
07N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along
the wave axis and south of 11N. 

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 08N- 
25N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the
southern portion of the wave mainly south of 11N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78W from
03N- 18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along
and east of the wave axis between 72W-78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 04N43W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 08N48W to 08N57W. Besides the 
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered 
showers are noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1022
mb high centered over the Florida Panhandle. With this, gentle 
anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered 
showers are developing over the Yucatan Peninsula reaching the Bay
of Campeche at this time. This activity will continue overnight 
as the usual thermal trough moves west from the peninsula into the
southwest Gulf. Scattered showers are also developing over 
Florida and moving west reaching the far east Gulf waters mainly 
east of 82W. This activity will dissipate tonight.

High pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast 
through the weekend. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds 
will prevail across the basin, except that winds will be fresh to
strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and 
overnight hours. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the 
Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave 
traversing the central Caribbean. 

Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave, only
scattered showers are noted across the remainder of the basin.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most
of the basin except between 70W-80W, where moderate to fresh winds
prevail. 

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh  
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast 
period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force along the coast
of Colombia by Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong trade 
winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Thu 
night. The tropical wave along 78W will cross the western 
Caribbean through Thu night. A surge of fresh to strong winds and
building seas will accompany this wave. The next tropical wave 
will reach the Windward Islands tonight and move across the 
eastern Caribbean Wed and Thu, across the central Caribbean Thu 
night through Sat and into the western Caribbean Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
waves traversing the basin. 

A surface trough extends from 30N66W to 28N69W. To the east,
another trough extends from 30N53W to 28N57W. Scattered showers
are noted along the troughs. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered
near 34N39W.  

High pressure dominating the basin will maintain 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bahamas. The high will 
be strong enough to generate fresh to strong east winds between 
the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola through Fri night, 
primarily during the evening hours. 

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA