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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 210000

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W from 03N- 
15N, moving west around 10 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery 
shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment.
Scattered showers are present from 10N-14N between 53W-61W. The 
wave could help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the 
southern Windward Islands and southeast Caribbean late this 
weekend into early next week. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from 08N-18N, 
moving west around 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb 
trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 14N and west of 80W, extending to the coasts of
Panama and Costa Rica, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. 
Upper-level divergence over the southwestern Caribbean is also 
playing a significant role in enhancing this convection.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 13N17W to 
10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 06N26W to 06N46W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06N-13N 
between 20W-38W.


A cold front extends from the Louisiana coastline near 30N93W to 
a 1016 mb low near 27N96W. A surface trough extends southward 
from the low to 19N94W. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed
from 29N92W to 26N93W. A 1019 mb high is centered over northern 
Florida, leading to quiet weather east of 90W.

The surface trough will persist over the SW Gulf through early 
next week. The cold front will continue moving across the 
northern Gulf waters tonight. It is expected to become stationary
as it reaches from S Florida to near 25N97W by Sun evening. The
surface low will lift northeastward through Mon night, then east-
northeastward across the north-central Gulf through Wed as high 
pressure builds across the waters north of the front and to the 
west of the low.


The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10N from
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75W. Convection associated
with a tropical wave along 81W interacting with the monsoon 
trough is described above in the tropical waves section. Farther
east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture 
content over northeastern Venezuela and the extreme southeastern 
Caribbean. Weak upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern
coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers are occurring along the 
northern coast of Venezuela extending to 13N, including Trinidad 
and the southern Windward Islands. The remainder of the Caribbean 
is experiencing relatively quiet weather.

Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to persist over 
the southeast Caribbean, southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and 
northern Venezuela into the middle of next week. Fresh to strong
winds are expected in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, 
and near the coast of Colombia today. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades will prevail across most of the region through Tue night. 


A stationary front passes through 32N49W to 26N62W. A pre-frontal 
trough extends from 27N51W to 23N55W. Scattered moderate 
convection prevails with these features mainly north of 24N 
between 47W-55W. To the south, another surface trough is located
the vicinity of the trough. Another surface trough is from 15N40W
to 12N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N-14N 
between 35W-48W. An area of numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted just east of Trinidad from 09N-12N along  

The aforementioned stationary front will dissipate by this 
evening west of 65W. A strong cold front will move off NE Florida 
this tonight, reaching from near 31N70W to 27N75W to near West 
Palm Beach by Sun afternoon, from near 31N64W to 26N72W to Miami 
late Sun night, and from 26N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida 
Keys by Mon evening, then becomes stationary. Fresh to strong 
winds and building seas are expected behind this front through 
late Mon before gradually subsiding by mid-week.

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