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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 150546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A 1018 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 26N95W. A cold front 
extends 24N93W to the low to 21N97W. The front will move SE 
across the basin today. In the wake of the front, gale-force 
winds are forecast over the SW Gulf tonight with seas ranging 
between 9-11 ft. These conditions will continue through late 
Friday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for further details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move into the western Atlantic this weekend.
Gale-force winds will develop behind the front mainly N of 28N by
Saturday. Gale-force winds are forecast from 30 to 40 kt and seas
around 8-10 feet. These conditions are forecast to continue 
through Sunday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 07N-17N,  
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
northern portion of the wave. This wave is well depicted in
scatterometer data.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 89W from 18N southward, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the 
wave axis, affecting portions of Central America. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W 
to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N48W, then 
resumes west of the tropical wave near 09N53W to 07N58W. 
Scattered showers are noted within 125 nm north of the boundaries
between 18W-44W.  

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the gale warning
currently in effect.

A 1018 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 26N95W. A cold front 
extends 24N93W to the low to 21N97W. Abundant cloudiness ans
scattered showers are noted along the front. To the southeast, a 
frontal system extends across the basin, analyzed as a stationary 
front from 27N82W to a 1015 mb low near 27N86W to a 1013 mb low 
near 20N92W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across
most of the basin, except west of 95W where fresh to strong 
northerly winds are noted.

The stationary front will gradually become ill defined through 
tonight. The low will progress E-SE through the basin before 
exiting by late Fri. Associated low pres will shift NE and inland
Fri as the fronts merge. Gale force N winds are forecast behind 
the front offshore of Veracruz, Mexico late today. Yet another 
cold front may move into the western Gulf Mon, slowly shifting 
E-SE across the basin by Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across Central America.

Scattered showers over the NW Caribbean and eastern Yucatan 
Peninsula mainly north of 19N between 84W-88W due to the proximity
of the stationary front in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Relatively dry 
air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered 
showers over the far SW Caribbean and over land from N Colombia to
Nicaragua are due to the east Pacific monsoon trough. 
Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trades across the 
basin.

The stationary front just NW of the Yucatan channel will 
gradually becoming ill defined tonight. A cold front will move 
into the far NW Caribbean late today, then gradually stall from 
eastern Cuba to Nicaragua by Sun. The remnants of the front will 
linger roughly along 80W for the start of next week. Fresh to 
strong N winds will follow this next cold front as it moves across
the NW Caribbean. Broad low pres may develop just to the E of, or
over, the Lesser Antilles this weekend into early next week. 
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will lead to
generally moderate tradewinds. NE swell will impact the Atlantic 
and Caribbean passages Fri into early next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Refer to the section above for details on the gale warning in
effect for the west Atlantic and the tropical wave moving across 
the basin.

A frontal system extends across the west-central Atlantic,
analyzed as a cold front from 31N57W to 27N63W, then transitions
to a stationary front from that point to 27N80W. A surface trough
extends from 33N54W to 26N58W with scattered moderate convection.
Another trough is analyzed from 26N66W to 25N72W with no
convection. The next surface trough extends from 22N69W to 20N72W
with no convection. A surface trough is analyzed from 22N57W to
19N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 75
nm east of the trough. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1037 mb high centered
well north of the area. 

The stationary front will gradually weaken and begin to drift 
northward later tonight, and winds N of the front will diminish 
through tonight. Low pressure is expected to develop off the NE 
Florida coast on today then drift NE and deepen over the weekend 
off the coast of the Carolinas, then move NE and exit the region 
late Sun through Mon. This low will drag a cold front through 
areas W of 70W through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible 
this weekend behind the front, mainly N of 28N. Elongated and 
broad low pressure may develop just to the E of, or over, the 
Lesser Antilles this weekend into early next week.

$$

ERA