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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 262341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.


The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 05N09W then 
continues to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to the coast of
Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N- 
04N between 13W-27W, and from 01S- 05N between 44W-53W.


A cold front had emerged off the coast of Texas and extends from 
30N94W to 26N97W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N93W to 
25N96W. Moderate west to northwest winds are west of the pre- 
frontal trough, while moderate to fresh southerly winds are 
between the trough and 92W. Light to moderate anticyclonic flow is
over the remainder of the central and eastern Gulf around high 
pressure centered over the Florida's panhandle. 

The low will shift offshore and move across
the northern and central Gulf through Mon night, reaching S
Florida by early Tue while the front sags S and slowly dissipates. 
Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue night,
weakening by the time it reaches the SE Gulf Wed night ahead of a
third front which may impact the basin by the end of the week.


Light to moderate winds dominate the Caribbean basin, except near 
the coast of Colombia where fresh northeasterly winds are occurring.
A surface trough extends from 11N69W to 17N67W and is supporting 
scattered showers within 90 n mi of the trough axis. 

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will
maintain rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters
allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds, except for
fresh winds near the coast of Colombia during the afternoons and
night time hours through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong
speeds on Thu night through Fri night.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic extending from 31N70W to
25N76W, then transitions to a stationary front to the northern 
coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of 
the front. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic 
extending from 31N44W to 21N56W. Scattered showers are within 90 
nm of this front. A surface trough is analyzed along 54W from 15N-
20N with scattered showers. To the east, a surface ridge 
prevails, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 30N22W. 

The northern portion of the front will drift E and dissipate 
through Mon. Another cold front will move into the northern 
portion by Mon night, eventually stalling along 26N by mid-week 
and then lifting northward, with a reinforcing front dropping S 
Thu night and Fri.