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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



839 
AXNT20 KNHC 150010
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are 
occurring within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco, north of 30N 
and east of 12W, in the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. The 
gale-force winds are forecast to persist there until 16/0000 
UTC. Please refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast at the 
website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 
13N17W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 03N37W, then
resumes west of a surface trough from 02N42W to 05N51W. The
trough extends from 06N36W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted south of 08N and west of 29W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 24N80W to 
24N85W, then continues as stationary to 24N94W to 19N95W. A 
surface trough extends from 20N94W to 17N92W. Scattered showers 
are within 150 nm of the frontal boundaries. Moderate to fresh 
NE winds prevail north of the front and gentle to moderate NE to
E winds prevail south of the front. Fresh NW winds are also noted 
offshore Veracruz. Seas are 4-6 ft across the west- central Gulf
and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The front will lift northward and dissipate through Sun. 
Moderate to fresh easterly flow will persist over most areas into 
early next week as high pressure builds north of the area in the 
wake of the front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair and stable weather associated with subsiding air prevails 
across most of the basin. A recent ASCAT pass depicts strong 
winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, 
and fresh trade winds elsewhere south of 16N and west of 68W. 
Moderate trades cover the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras,
with light to gentle speeds over the NW Caribbean. Seas of 7-10 
ft are likely occurring over the south-central and SW Caribbean.
Seas are 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the NW 
portion of the basin.

Atlc high pressure ridge extending W-SW to the central Bahamas 
will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the 
south- central Caribbean through early Sat. Winds and seas will 
gradually diminish late Sat and Sun as the high pressure shifts 
eastward and weakens. Trade winds will increase across the south-
central Caribbean Mon and Tue as high pressure builds across the
W Atlc. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds are occurring in the far NE Atlantic, offshore 
of Morocco. See the Special Features section above for details. 
Outside of the gale area, strong to near gale force winds 
prevail from the Canary Islands northeastward to the coast of 
Morocco, where seas are likely ranging between 10-15 ft.

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure near 29N72W to 
the Florida Straits near 24N80W. A surface trough extends W from
the low to 26N78W. Scattered showers are along and within 150 nm
of the front. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong N to
NE winds, north of 30N and west of 78W. Seas are 6-9 ft north of
the Bahamas and west of 74W. A cold front extends ENE from the 
low pressure to 31N63W, with scattered showers near the front. 
Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the subtropical 
Atlantic, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N28W. Seas 
are 4-6 ft north of 20N and east of the Bahamas to 35W. Moderate
to fresh trades are over the tropical Atlantic, south of 20N, 
where seas are 6-8 ft.

The front will sink slowly southward and weaken through Sat, 
reaching from 29N65W to the central Bahamas Sat evening. The 
front will gradually dissipate through early Tue as it become E 
to W aligned along 26N. Winds will increase north of 25N and west
of 70W by late Tue as high pressure builds across the W Atlc. 

$$
ERA