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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 062349

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2220 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
near 09N13W to 03N20W to 03N28W to Equator along 35W. No ITCZ was
present. Scattered moderate convection is from 0N to 10N E of 22W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between
29W and 41W and from 06N to 10N between 47W and 55W.


A middle to upper level trough continue to support a stationary 
front that as of 2100 UTC extends from near Panama City, Florida 
to 27N90W and to 24N94W. Low level precipitable water imagery
depict shallow moisture ahead of this front, which is generating
scattered showers over the NE gulf. Moderate north to northeast
winds are behind the front over the NW basin as well as along the
eastern coast of Mexico adjacent waters where seas range between 3
to 5 ft.

The eastern part of the front will transition back to a cold 
front and push southward to the southeastern Gulf by Fri evening, 
while the remainder of the front weakens and dissipates. Moderate
to fresh return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf 
this weekend and into early next week as high pressure in the wake
of the front shifts eastward. Otherwise, hazy sky conditions due 
to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are expected to 
continue over most of the SW Gulf through Fri night.


Scattered to isolated showers are over the Mona Passage, western
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica as well as western and eastern
Cuba. The east Pacific monsoon trough supports similar convection
over the Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters. Clear skies and
fair weather conditions are elsewhere. Moderate trades are across
the central and eastern Caribbean with seas ranging between 3 to 5
ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas up to 3 ft are in the
NW portion of the basin. 

A surface ridge north of the area will support moderate trade 
winds over most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are 
likely across the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure 
builds to the north.


A middle to upper level trough supports a stationary front across
northern Florida and a pre-frontal trough that extends from 
31N74W to near Vero Beach. Diffluent flow between the base of the 
upper trough and a broad anticyclone that sits over the NW 
Caribbean supports scattered showers and tstms within 90 nm ahead 
of the trough. Moderate southwest winds are ahead of the trough N 
of 27N to 65W with seas to 4 ft. The remainder Atlantic waters are
under the influence of the Azores high which is anchored by a 
1023 mb high near 34N21W. Altimeter passes show seas in the 3 to 5
ft range. 

The stationary front over northern Florida will transition to a 
cold front late tonight and move over the northwest waters. The
cold front is forecast to reach from near 31N76W to the Straits 
of Florida Fri morning. The northern part of the front will 
continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through Sat 
night while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build along 31N 
in the wake of the front through Sun night. The ridge will shift 
eastward Mon night as another cold front moves over the northwest 
waters. The cold front will become stationary over the far 
northern waters Tue and Tue night.