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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251030

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections 
of Sierra Leone near the border with Guinea, to 08N16W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N16W to 05N26W to 06N37W to 04N47W. Widely 
scattered moderate showers are noted is within 150 nm on either 
side of the ITCZ between 15W and 25W. Broken to overcast multi-
layered clouds and embedded showers are to the east and southeast 
of a line from 30N14W to 25N27W to 12N38W.


Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of 
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from Georgia to the central Gulf 
of Mexico to the coast of Mexico near 20N98W.

A weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
The front will stall and move northward on Thursday. A strong 
cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico 
waters on Sunday morning. 


An upper level trough is in the western Caribbean Sea, extending
SW from western Cuba. Widely scattered moderate showers cover the
area from 17N southward between 80W and 86W. Isolated showers are 
within 60 nm of the southern coast of Haiti.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from 76W in northern Colombia, 
to 85W in western Costa Rica. Scattered isolated strong convection
is within 150 nm south of the trough axis.

High pressure building behind a cold front north of the region 
will increase the winds and the seas in the central Caribbean Sea 
through Thursday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail 
across most of the area from Thursday night through Sunday.


A cold front extends from 31N58W to a 1015 mb low pressure area 
near 27N61W to the Windward Passage near 20N73W. A surface trough
extends from the low center to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted between 150 and 400 nm east 
of the cold front, from 24N to 30N. A few showers are within 120
nm on either side of the surface trough.

The current cold front will shift slowly eastward today, then 
become stationary on Thursday. Fresh to strong NE winds, that are 
associated with the front, will prevail across most of the region 
through early Thursday.