Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 010405

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered along a tropical wave 
near 11.8N 77.7W at 01/0300 UTC or 360 nm E of Bluefields 
Nicaragua moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 
45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm from the center in
the northeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 15 ft. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 73W and 82W. 
A westward motion will bring the system across the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea through Friday, crossing Central America Friday 
night, and emerging over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. 
The system is forecast to intensify through Friday with weakening 
expected as the system crosses Central America. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.


The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 29W, from 
18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 23W and 31W.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 56W, from 17N 
southward, moving west at 20 kt. A recent scatterometer pass found
a distinct wind shift across the wave with fresh to strong winds 
on either side north of 12N. Scattered weak convection is observed
from 10N to 16N between 49W and 59W.

The axis of a tropical wave associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two is in the Caribbean near 77W, from 18N southward, 
moving west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 73W and 82W.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 04N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed within 180 nm of the ITCZ, east of


The gradient between high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf 
and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh
S-SE winds in the western Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate 
easterlies are impacting the SE basin, including the Florida 
Straits, with 2-4 ft seas. Winds are gentle in the NE basin with 
1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, An area of low pressure located along the southern 
coast of Texas is forecast to move slowly northward and inland 
over southeastern Texas overnight. Active weather is expected to
linger across the Texas coastal waters through Fri night. 
Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the 
upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night 
near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night. 


Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Outside of the conditions associated with Potential Tropical 
Cyclone Two, strong easterly winds prevail over the central 
Caribbean with 8-12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the 
eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will begin to 
move W-SW overnight and reach near 11.5N 80.2W Fri morning as a 
Tropical Storm, near 11.3N 82.8W Fri evening, and then inland 
across southeastern Nicaragua Fri night, before continuing 
westward and emerging across the Pacific waters Sat evening. A 
strong tropical wave located along 57W is forecast to move over 
the Lesser Antilles on Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean 
Sea Fri evening through Sat night. Any development of this system 
should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas 
across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it 
moves across the region. 


The Azores high dominates the pattern in the Atlantic. In the
western basin, mainly gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north 
of 27N and east of 77W while moderate SSE winds are observed off 
the Florida coast. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are 
noted south of 27N, including the Windward Passage, where seas are
5-8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are associated with the tropical 
wave approaching the Lesser Antilles with 8-10 ft seas. In the 
eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 7-9 ft seas
north of 17N with gentle winds and moderate seas south of 17N.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to 
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola 
and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a strong 
tropical wave forecast to move over the eastern Caribbean Sea by 
the weekend will bring a surge of winds and seas across the waters
S of 22N Fri night through Sun. 


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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Jul-2022 04:05:37 UTC