Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 221015

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are near the N 
coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 74W-76W. Seas are 9-12 ft.
After 12Z Monday morning, winds will subside below gale force.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 03N-16N, 
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 04N-09N between 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 06N-21N. 
This wave is completely embedded within the middle of a strong 
outbreak of Saharan dust, and no convection is present.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 04N-19N, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 03N-08N between 
52W-58W, including over portions of Suriname and Guyana.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from 06N-20N, 
moving W at 15 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers around 
Puerto Rico. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 03N-17N, 
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean, Costa Rica, and Panama, S of 10N.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
12N16W to 09N23W. The ITCZ begins near 07N23W to 08N32W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N35W to 07N45W. The ITCZ
resumes W of another tropical wave near 07N48W to the coast of
Suriname near 06N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the 
Tropical Waves section, isolated moderate convection is within 
180 nm S of the ITCZ between 25W-30W.


Weak surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
29N. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 16N-19N between 92W-95W.
In the upper levels, a small upper level low centered over the SE
Gulf near 25N86W is enhancing convection. Isolated moderate 
convection is from 25N-27N between 87W-89W. Isolated moderate 
convection is over the E Gulf E of 85W. Similar convection is over
the central Gulf from 24N-26N between 90W-93W. 

A ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico will retreat E Tuesday 
night and allow a cold front to move into the northern Gulf. The 
front will then stall and weaken Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate 
winds will continue across most of the basin, except for fresh 
winds pulsing to the W of the Yucatan peninsula at night. 


A gale is along the coast of N Colombia. See above. Two tropical 
waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. 

Scattered showers are over Haiti, and N of Jamaica, from 18N-20N 
between 72W-79W. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean from
20N-22N between 82W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection
is over the Gulf of Honduras. Further more, scattered showers are
advecting over the Windward Islands S of S of 14N and E of 65W. 

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade 
winds in the central Caribbean Sea through next week. Winds 
along the coast of Colombia will be gale-force until 22/1200 UTC. 
Fresh easterly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Monday 


Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.

A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 27N76W to 
21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-26N between 
74W-77W. More scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 26N-
30N between 72W-80W. A 1021 mb high is over the central Atlantic 
near 27N47W. A 1024 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N21W. 

Over the W Atlantic, the central Bahamas trough will reach the 
waters between the Bahamas and Florida late tonight. A 29N/30N 
ridge will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds 
across the region through Tuesday night. The ridge will start 
retreating eastward on Tuesday night, enabling a trough to move 
through the NW waters from Florida on Wednesday morning. Fresh to 
occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each night,
through the middle of next week. 

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Jul-2019 10:16:09 UTC