Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 261025

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.


Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 18.7N 84.3W at 26/0900 UTC
or 180 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 81W and 87W. On the
latest forecast track the center of Zeta will cross the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula tonight and over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico Tue, then approach the norther Gulf of Mexico Wed.
Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a 
hurricane day before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Please read 
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center 
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the 
latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.


A tropical wave is along 39W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 
about 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection from 04N-14N between 31W-43W.

A tropical wave is along 57W from 07N to 18N, moving westward at 
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 19N
between 50W and 57W. A sharp upper-level trough with axis just E 
of Barbados is helping to induce this convective activity. Fresh 
to locally strong winds are also noted near the northern end of 
the wave axis.


The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to
09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 07N31W to 07N44W to 
to near the coast of French Guiana. A surface trough is within 
the ITCZ and extends from 08N49W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is along this trough axis from 43W to 51Q.
 Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, 
scattered moderate convection is from 03N- 08N between 25-31W. 


Please see Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Zeta currently located in the NW Caribbean Sea.
Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane before entering the Gulf
tonight, then will remain at or near hurricane strength as it
moves northward through the south central Gulf Tue and it will
approach the northern Gulf coast Wed. Zeta is forecast to be at 
or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf 
Coast on Wednesday, and there is an increasing risk of storm 
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida 
Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Zeta and updates to the forecast. Between Wednesday and Friday, 
storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local 6 inch amounts, 
is expected across sections of the central U.S. Gulf Coast near 
and in advance of Zeta.
A surface trough is located from near Tampa Bay to the western 
tip of Cuba. Abundant moisture is associated with this system, 
that will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity 
over South Florida and the Florida Keys on today. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds are occurring on both sides of this trough 
axis. A weak high pressure ridge dominates the western Gulf where 
mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted.

Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Wed
followed by fresh to locally strong winds. 


Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Zeta located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of 
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening through early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme 
western Cuba today and tonight.

Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is ongoing and expected to
continue from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, 
the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. This 
rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 

Southwesterly flow from the eastern Pacific region will continue 
to advect abundant moisture over Central America but mainly from 
Panama to Nicaragua. This will maintain the likelihood of showers 
and tstms over that area on Mon.

Fresh winds will prevail over the east-central Caribbean
into Tue due to the pressure gradient between Zeta and high 
pressure over the Atlantic. 


Epsilon is now a post-tropical cyclone in the far northern
Atlantic, continuing to race northeastward away from he area. 
Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the 
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of 
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through 
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and 
the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for 

A surface trough is analyzed from a 1012 mb low pressure located N
of area near 34N74W to near Melbourne Florida. Scattered moderate
convection has developed ahead of this trough, encompassing the
Bahamas and adjacent waters.

A 1029 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores near 33N32W 
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. Fresh to 
locally strong trade winds are noted along the southern periphery
of the Atlantic ridge mainly E of 55W. Similar wind speeds are 
observed between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa. 
These winds are affecting the Canary Islands and the Atlantic 
waters of W Africa N of Dakar, Senegal. 


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Page last modified: Monday, 26-Oct-2020 10:26:03 UTC