Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 250004

Tropical Weather Discussion...Resent
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0005 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


Strong Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:
A persistent surface trough extending southwestward from 25N64W to
Puerto Rico is providing moist southerly flow across Hispaniola.
Coupled with divergent flow south of a pronounced upper-level
trough, strong thunderstorms are likely over and near Hispaniola
Thu afternoon and early evening. These thunderstorms are capable 
of producing heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash 
flooding, especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas. Please
refer to local weather service offices for more details on this 


A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Freetown, Sierra Leone 
then extends southwestward to 03N17W. An ITCZ continues from 
03N17W to 01S25W, then turns westward to northeast of Sao Luis,
Brazil at 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 
the Equator to 05N between 20W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted north of the ITCZ from 01N to 04N between 20W and 50W.


A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high at the northeastern
Gulf to south of Tampico, Mexico. Convergent winds near a surface
trough at the west-central Gulf are producing widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern Gulf.
Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are evident at
the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will support mainly gentle to 
moderate E winds in the northeastern half of the Gulf, and 
moderate to fresh SE winds in the southwestern half of the Gulf 
through Thu. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf 
starting Thu night, causing E to SE winds to become fresh to 
strong across the entire Gulf through Sun night. Seas will build 
to 10 ft Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to between fresh and 
strong west of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening.


Please read the Special Features section about strong thunderstorms
and the potential heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

Aided by divergent winds south of a mid to upper-level trough over
the Gulf of Mexico, convergent trade winds are triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms near Cuba and the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula, including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong
NE trade winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are found at the south- 
central basin, and near the ABC Islands and Windward Passage.
Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are evident near the
Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft prevail for elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Greater Antilles 
will sustain fresh to locally strong winds just north of 
Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba 
through Thu night. Looking ahead, further strengthening of the 
high starting on Fri will also cause fresh to strong trades in 
the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just 
south of Hispaniola through the weekend.


Please read the Special Features section about the strong 
thunderstorms and potential for heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N58W to 25N65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up
to 80 nm along either side of this boundary. A persistent surface
trough reaches southwestward from 25N64W to Puerto Rico. Widely
scattered showers exist from 20N to 24N between 60W and 66W. A
1008 mb low pressure centered near 23N36W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring just east of the low from
22N to 26N between 34W and 36W. A surface trough stretches
southwestward from 25N28W to 14N37W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 50 nm along either side of
this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong NNW to NE winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are found
just east of the aforementioned low from 23N to 26N between 35W 
and 40W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to ENE
winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft dominate waters north of 20N between
34W and 48W. Farther west, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and
4 to 6 ft seas are found north of 20N between 48W and the 
Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NNE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft exist 
north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 34W. Near the 
Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 5 ft
seas are noted from 06N to 20N between the central Africa coast 
and 40W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 40W and
the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 
seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen. Light to gentle with locally moderate 
southerly and monsoonal winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate
swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to gradually 
weaken and dissipate to a remnant trough early Thu. Decaying 
northerly swell of 8-9 ft will subside this evening. Fairly 
tranquil conditions are forecast Thu and Thu night. Looking ahead,
a new cold front will merge with the trough and progress 
eastward, reaching from 31N57W to eastern Cuba on Sat morning, 
and then 25N55W to Hispaniola on Sun morning. Swell will push
south of 31N with the front, resulting in building seas. A 
strengthening Bermuda High should cause widespread fresh to strong
N to E winds west of the front beginning Fri evening through Sun 



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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Apr-2024 00:04:30 UTC