Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 210555

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W and continues SW to near 02N22W. The ITCZ continues 
from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered 
moderate convection to strong is along the coast of Sierra 
Leone, from 03S-06N between 16W-33W. Scattered moderate 
convection is also noted near the coast of Brazil.


A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to a 
1010 mb low pressure near 20N94W and continues south to the coast
near 18N94W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is just S of 
the front over the SE Gulf from the Yucatan Peninsula extending 
north to the Florida Keys. The stationary front will transition 
back to a cold front reaching the far southeastern Gulf late Wed. 
The low is forecast to lose its identity along the front by early 
Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be focused along and
near the front tonight into Wed morning. Some of this activity 
may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. 

A 1017 mb high pressure is centered over 28N93W ahead of the 
next cold front near the Texas coast. High pressure in its wake 
will shift eastward through Sat night as a cold front reaches 
eastern Texas. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will 
develop over the NW Gulf Fri, shift to the central Gulf early 
Sat and diminish by late Sat as the cold front moves across the 
NW Gulf and central Gulf waters. The front will become 
stationary from the east-central Gulf to the west-central Gulf 
Sun and Sun night as a weak gradient sets up over the area. 


The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh
to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range. This area is 
cloud free. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E-SE winds are noted with
seas of 4-7 ft across the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the
NW Caribbean. Visible satellite imagery shows narrow lines of 
clouds forming parallel to the E-SE winds. Convection continues
to flare up over the NE Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are also noted over parts of Central America. 

Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will 
diminish by late in the week as high pressure over the central 
Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of Colombia where 
these winds will persist through the week. 


As of 0300 UTC and W of 65W, a weak stationary front extends 
from near Bermuda to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted north of 27N to 31N between 65W-73W. This front will remain 
stationary through Wed, before moving E as high pressure moves 
into the area. By late Wed, the stationary front will have lifted 
back to the N a s a warm front, while the cold front will have 
reached from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to west-
central Cuba as yet another cold front moves over the NW waters. 
By late Thu, both fronts will be weakening NE of the Bahamas as 
high pressure builds in over the area. The high pressure will 
shift eastward through Sat night as a stronger cold front 
approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. This front is expected to 
move across the NW and north-central waters Sun and Sun night 
preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds and possible scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

E of 65W, high pressure of 1025 mb located near 27N38W dominates
the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted per scatterometer data from 10N-20N between the
coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The high pressure 
will weaken by late Wed, and will be replaced by another high
pressure system located over the central Atlantic by Wed night.


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Apr-2021 05:55:43 UTC