000 AXNT20 KNHC 051033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Dec 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 08N between 20W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extends from 1017 mb low pressure near the Sabine Pass of Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 90 nm to the east of the trough. Broad ridging dominates the Gulf elsewhere, anchored by 1025 mb high pressure over central Florida. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are evident over the western Gulf, with 5 to 7 ft seas except for near 8 ft off central Texas. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will move southward this morning ahead of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf late today. The front will stall across the central Gulf by late Fri before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure will build north of the area behind the front into Mon, thus supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting strong NE winds and rough seas in long plumes from eastern Cuba to Honduras, from the Windward Passage to the south of Jamaica, and off Cabo Beata on the south coast of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are also active off Colombia. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off the coast of Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near-gale force NW winds and rough seas across the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and off Colombia. The high pressure will weaken today, allowing winds and seas to slightly diminish through Sat. Looking ahead, the high pressure will build again Sat night, supporting increased winds and seas across mainly the central Caribbean and Windward Passage through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N48W to the north coast of Haiti. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are noted along the southern extent of the front south of 22N. Seas to 8 ft in NW swell are noted near the front north of 28N. A broad ridge extending from 1024 mb high pressure near Bermuda to the north of the Bahamas is maintaining gentle breezes elsewhere west of the front, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell. Farther east, a ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure north of Madeira in the eastern Atlantic to roughly 25N50W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are evident south of the ridge from off northwest Africa and the Canary Islands to 45W Moderate to fresh winds are noted farther west over the tropical Atlantic, with seas to 8 ft in NE swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift of the area through late today. Another front will move off the coast of northeast Florida tonight, reaching from Bermuda to Straits of Florida by late Fri, from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Sat, then will stall and dissipate along 22N through Sun. High pressure will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat through Mon following the front. $$ Christensen
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Dec-2024 10:33:59 UTC