985 
AXNT20 KNHC 100434
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami 
FL 0615 UTC Tue Dec 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico beginning early on Tue and move 
quickly across the Gulf through Wed afternoon into Wed evening. 
Gale force winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf 
mainly west of 92W behind the front during that time. Very rough 
to high seas are expected in the area of strongest winds. 
Conditions will improve across the Gulf by Thu as the cold front 
exits the basin and pushes farther east. Rough seas will subside 
by the weekend. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale 
Warning for the Agadir marine zone, expect gale conditions to 
persist through at least 10/0600 UTC.  Please visit website: 
https://www.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W then extends 
southwestward to 08N21W. An ITCZ continues from 08N21W through 
05N31W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 
200 nm along either side of these features east of 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.

Convergent southerly winds along the Gulf States are triggering 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the 
northwestern and north-central Gulf, north of 27.5N. A surface 
ridge reaches southwestward from central Florida to north of 
Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds along 
with 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the west-central, 
northwestern and north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S 
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will push offshore Texas 
early on Tue, then quickly move southeastward across the basin, 
exiting the region Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Behind the 
front, strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can 
be expected. These hazardous conditions will prevail through 
Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will 
bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into 
the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A double-barrel high pressure east of Bermuda continues to 
channel northeasterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean 
Sea. Fresh to strong ENE trades with seas at 8 to 10 ft dominate 
the south- central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh 
with locally strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are 
evident at the north- central and southwestern basin, including 
the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 8 
ft in moderate NE swell are found near Costa Rica and Panama. 
Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail 
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail 
through tonight. Afterward, the double-barrel high pressure will 
shift eastward to the central Atlantic, allowing the trades to 
diminish to between moderate and fresh, except off the coast of 
Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will persist. A cold front 
will move across the Yucatan Channel Wed and across the 
northwestern basin Wed night and Thu, then become stationary Thu 
night from east-central Cuba to near the northeastern Nicaragua. 
The front will weaken and dissipate through Fri. Fresh to strong 
NE winds behind this front will diminish some on Fri, except 
winds will pulse between fresh and strong at the lee of Cuba and 
near the Windward Passage and Jamaica Fri through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning 
issued by Meteo France. 

A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N46W to 21N62W, then continues as a 
shear line to near 23N72W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring near and up to 150 nm on both sides of the front, 
particularly, between 51W and 62W. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic 
Basin.

A 1027 mb high pressure east of Bermuda is supporting gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 27N 
between 57W and the Georgia/northeastern Florida coast. Farther 
south and east, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft 
seas are found up to 250 nm northwest of the stationary 
front/shear line.

At the central Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present north of 20N between 35W and the
stationary front/shear line. For the Tropical Atlantic from 05N to
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally 
fresh ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas exist. Fresh to locally 
strong winds along with seas to 15 ft are found north of the 
Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas at 4 
to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of 
the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening stationary front extends 
from 31N46W to 21N62W, where it transitions to a shearline to 
just north of the southern Bahamas. These features will 
dissipate by Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop 
off northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front 
that will reach from near 31N79W to South Florida by Wed 
afternoon, become stationary from near 31N69W to east-central 
Cuba by Thu night, then gradually weaken into late Fri night as 
strong high pressure builds in behind it. A broad trough is 
expected to develop ahead of the front near 61W. A tight 
pressure gradient west of the front and trough will bring strong 
to near gale-force north to northeast winds and rough seas over 
the waters in the vicinity of the trough and front. 

$$
KRV