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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



315 
AXNT20 KNHC 162320
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front passes through 32N72W, across Eleuthera Island in 
the Bahamas, across central Cuba, to NE Honduras. Expect GALE-
FORCE NW winds within the area that is bounded by the points 
from 30N79W to 30N80W to 31N81W to 31N79W to 30N79W. Expect the 
sea heights to range from 11 feet to 14 feet. The GALE-FORCE 
wind conditions are forecast to continue for the next 36 hours 
or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 
issued by the National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 20N southward, 
moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate 
rainshowers are from 14N to 20N between 60W and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 10N17W. The ITCZ continues from 10N17W, 
to 05N28W, 05N41W, and to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. 
Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong to the south 
of the line that extends from Africa near 15N17W, to 10N40W, and 
to 10N61W near Trinidad. Scattered moderate to strong is inland, 
from 05N to 10N between 08W and 12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure spans the entire area. A surface ridge 
passes through east central Texas, to the Mexico coast to the 
south of Texas, into the NW part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec 
of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, on the eastern Pacific Ocean 
side of Mexico.

The wind speeds and the sea heights continue to diminish across 
the basin. High pressure is building in the wake of a cold front 
that moved through the Gulf of Mexico yesterday. A weaker front 
will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and 
Tuesday. High pressure, building behind that front, will allow 
fresh to strong SE return flow off the Texas coast by mid week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes across Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, 
across central Cuba, to NE Honduras. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate to locally strong to the northwest of the line that 
extends from the Windward Passage to NE Honduras. The 
comparatively greatest amount of precipitation is occurring 
within 120 nm to the north of Honduras between 83W and 87W.

Middle level cyclonic wind flow, from a middle level inverted 
trough, covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from 78W 
westward. 

The current cold front, from central Cuba to eastern Honduras, 
will stall and weaken from the Windward Passage to northeastern 
Nicaragua on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow 
the front as it moves across the NW Caribbean Sea. A weak trough 
will drift westward, toward the Leeward Islands, through early 
next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front passes through 32N72W, across Eleuthera Island in 
the Bahamas, across central Cuba, to NE Honduras. Expect GALE-
FORCE NW winds within the area that is bounded by the points 
from 30N79W to 30N80W to 31N81W to 31N79W to 30N79W. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers 
are to the west and northwest of the line that passes through 
32N58W to 24N70W, beyond the Windward Passage. Gale-force NW 
winds are associated with the cold front, within the area that 
is bounded by the points from 30N79W to 30N80W to 31N81W to 
31N79W to 30N79W. Expect the sea heights to range from 11 feet 
to 14 feet in the same area.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 19N51W. Upper 
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 09N northward 
between 45W and 61W. A surface trough is along 19N54W 15N57W 
11N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate 
and isolated strong from 11N to 21N between 40W and 54W.

The current cold front, from 32N72W to central Cuba, will stall 
and weaken, from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage, by late 
Sunday into Monday. Gale-force winds are expected during this 
weekend, in the northern waters W of 70W, as an area of low 
pressure deepens off the coast of the Carolinas. Marine 
conditions will improve across the area through the middle of 
the week, as the low pressure moves more to the north of the 
area.

$$
mt