Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 222251

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
551 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.



A cold front extends from 32N55W to 26N64W to 20N75W. Low 
pressure is forecast to form along the front tonight in the 
vicinity of 28N61W and slide northeastward along the front Sunday
while deepening. Winds to gale force are expected Sunday into 
Monday, mainly north of 27N, between 50W-63W, with this low 
pressure system. Expect seas of 10 to 17 ft in the area. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or 
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for 
further details.


A 1016 mb low is W of the Canary Islands near 29N22W, moving
slowly SW with a surface trough extending north from the low. 
Scattered showers are near the low. Meteo France is forecasting NE
to E gale force winds for southern portions of the zone Maderia 
and northern portions of the zone Canarias, beginning now at 
23/0000 UTC and lasting through 23/1800 UTC, Sunday evening. This
encompasses the general area from 27N-32N between 12W-22W,
including the Canary Islands. Near gales are expected elsewhere
over portions of the zones Maderia, Tarfaya, Canarias, Meteor and
Irving through Monday. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
07N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 01S30W to the 
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 04S-04N between 19W-45W. 


A 1033 mb high centered over Alabama is spreading a surface ridge
across the Gulf of Mexico. Mid- to upper-level ridging also
extends over the Gulf. A surface trough over the SW Gulf of Mexico
near the coast of Mexico is enhancing cloud cover with possible
light showers. Fresh NE winds are present over southern and
eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico, with gentle winds in the
northwest to north-central Gulf.

With high pressure now having settled in over the area, winds 
over the basin will diminish through Sun night. The next cold 
front will move over the NW Gulf Mon night and Tue, followed by a 
stronger front Tue night and Wed. This front will quickly exit the
Gulf by late Wed night. Gale force northwest to north winds will 
follow in behind the front over the west-central and SW Gulf 
waters on Wed and Wed night.


A cold front extends from E Cuba near 20N75W to W Jamaica near
18N78W to the Honduras/Nicaragua border near 15N83W to 14N89W. 
The front is mostly void of precipitation across the Caribbean 
Sea except for isolated light showers. Fresh to locally strong N
winds cover the NW Caribbean sea behind the front, including the 
Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are over the 
central and E Caribbean, except for fresh to locally strong near
the coast of N Colombia. Subsidence and dry air dominate the
eastern and central Caribbean ahead of the front.

The cold front will become stationary from Puerto Rico to 
southeastern Nicaragua Sun night, then dissipate by Tue. Fresh to 
locally strong winds are expected W of the front until Mon 
morning, especially through the Windward Passage and to the lee of
Cuba. Strong northeast to east winds will pulse each night 
through Wed night off the coast of Colombia. Another cold front 
will move into the northwestern Caribbean Wed night, and reach
from the Windward Passage to the northeast part of Nicaragua Thu 
night. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north winds 
and building seas, including the Yucatan Channel and vicinity 


See section above for details on the two Gale Warnings in the
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front over the west-central Atlantic extends from 32N55W to
26N64W to eastern Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are near the
front, mainly north of 21N and east of 71W. Strong to near gale
force NE winds are behind the front, especially within 180 nm 
behind the front from 23N-29N. Elsewhere, a surface trough is E 
of the Leeward Islands along 57W from 15N-20N. Scattered showers 
are within 60 nm of the trough axis. A 1016 mb low is W of the 
Canary Islands near 29N22W. Scattered showers are within the 
vicinity of the low pressure. Strong to gale force winds are north
and northeast of the low.

The cold front from near 26N64W to eastern Cuba will slow down as
it moves across waters N of Puerto Rico Sun. Low pressure is 
expected to form along the front tonight near 28N61W. Near gale to
gale force north to northeast winds are expected east of 65W and 
north of 27N Sun. Large north swell west of the front is currently
affecting Atlantic/outward-facing beaches of the Bahamas. This 
swell will slowly decay as it propagates southeastward through Sun
night. Winds and seas will diminish early next week over the 
western Atlantic, then increase east of northern Florida Mon night
through Tue in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is
forecast to move over that area Tue night, then reach from near 
31N76W to S Florida Wed night, and from near 31N69W to the 
Windward Passage Thu night. Fresh to strong west to northwest 
winds and building seas will follow in behind this front.


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Page last modified: Saturday, 22-Feb-2020 22:51:33 UTC