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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion


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974 
WTPZ44 KNHC 181451
TCDEP4

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Lane's inner-core convective organization has continued to improve
with satellite intensity estimates vacillating between T6.0/115 kt
and T6.5/127 kt during the past 6 hours. The 15-nmi-diameter eye
remains quiet distinct and is embedded within a solid ring of cloud
tops colder than -70 deg C. An average of the various intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON support
increasing the intensity to 120 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 285/13 kt. There has been little
change in the models over the past couple of days, and the latest
NHC guidance, especially the consensus track models, required no
significant changes to the previous advisory track. The large
expansive subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is
forecast to remain intact and gradually build westward to the north
of the Hawaiian Islands throughout the 120-h forecast period. As a
result, Lane is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48
hours or so, and then turn westward by day 3, maintaining that
motion on days 4 and 5. The official forecast track lies close to a
blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus models. On the forecast
track, Hurricane Lane is expected to move into the Central Pacific
basin in about 9 hours at around 0000 UTC.

Although Lane will be remaining over 27.0-27.5 deg C SSTs during
the forecast period, increasing westerly to northwesterly vertical
wind shear to around 15 kt, along with a slightly drier mid-level
environment, is expected to induce slow but steady weakening by 24
hours. Although Lane could strengthen a little more before the
prolonged weakening begins, the general intensity trend should be
downward. However, the rate of weakening is held a little above the
intensity guidance owing to the warmer SSTs indicated by raw data
than what the SHIPS model guidance is using.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 12.3N 138.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 12.8N 140.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 13.4N 142.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 13.8N 144.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 14.1N 146.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 14.5N 150.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 14.9N 153.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 15.8N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart