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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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699 
WTPZ44 KNHC 192051
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong
convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the
last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little
farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed
some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops,
and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better
defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30
kt based on this information.

The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory.
The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall
is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the
system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough
moving into the western United States. This will not afford much
time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and
within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly
dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of
the Sierra-Madre Occidental.

The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10
inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the
depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually
its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened
risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 19-Sep-2018 20:52:00 UTC