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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 171125

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward 
across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and 
combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure 
gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern 
Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC 
18 Feb from 10N-12N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the latest 
Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers 
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa. 
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 11N15W and 
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of
South America near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from
03N-06N between 09W-17W.


A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. 10-20
kt southerly return flow is noted with strongest winds over the W
Gulf. A stationary front is along the Texas coast. A cold front is
further inland over Texas. No significant convection is observed 
across the Gulf waters at this time. Satellite imagery shows an 
area of low stratus or fog over the NW Gulf from SE Louisiana to N
of Veracruz Mexico. 

Weak ridging across the Gulf will shift E this morning ahead of a
cold front moving off the Texas coast later today. The front will
stall across the northern Gulf waters through Mon, lift N toward 
the northern Gulf states Tue, before moving off the Texas coast 
again Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf through late week. Expect 
fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front over the NW and N 
central Gulf Mon and Mon night. 


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more 
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central 
Caribbean near Colombia.

Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant 
convection is noted anywhere in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean 
are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high pressure 
builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected
over the S central Caribbean tonight through Wed night, reaching 
minimal gale force at night Sun night through Tue night. Fresh to 
strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 
85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Wed night. NE to E 
swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands 
will gradually subside through today, then will rebuild by mid 


The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb 
surface high centered near 30N38W. This pattern maintains gentle 
to moderate winds across the region.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge is maintaining a gentle to moderate 
wind flow across the region. A cold front will move off the NE 
Florida coast late Mon, then stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. 
The western part of the front will lift N by late Tue, while the 
eastern part is forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly
return flow will prevail again by mid week.

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