AXNT20 KNHC 150557
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...
As of 15/0300 UTC, a cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico from
Tampa Florida to 27N85W to beyond the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W.
Expect gale force NW to N winds S of 20N and W of 94W. Winds are
forecast to weaken to below gale force shortly on 15/0600 UTC.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 15N southward to
NW Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the wave axis.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
northern Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N19W to 05N30W to 03N44W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-06N between 09W-14W, and from 03N-09N
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and gale force
winds are located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features Section above for more details. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front. Overcast multilayered
clouds are over most of the the Gulf of Mexico due to a strong
upper level jetstream from S Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. The
far NW Gulf now has mostly fair weather.
The current cold front will pass to the SE of the Gulf midday
Thu, with winds and seas gradually decreasing behind the exiting
front. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the
front and prevail through the weekend.
A surface trough extends from 24N69W to the eastern Dominican
Republic to the central Caribbean near 16N70W. Scattered moderate
convection is located near and over the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of the Caribbean north of
17N between 64W-73W.
In the SW Caribbean, widely scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 12N between 76W-82W, due to the eastern extent of
the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.
High pressure across the NW Atlantic is supporting fresh to
locally strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean. E swell
will maintain seas 8 ft or above for tropical N Atlantic through
the end of the week. Strong N winds and building seas will follow
a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel. Fresh N winds and seas
to 10 ft will spread across the NW Caribbean behind the front Thu
and Thu night, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front stalls and
weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.
A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N66W to 31N70W. A
stationary front continues from 31N70W to Jacksonville Florida
near 30N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
The surface trough that extends from 24N69W to the eastern
Dominican Republic is producing scattered moderate convection
south of 24N between 65W-73W. Further E, a 1025 mb high is over
the central Atlantic near 29N49W.
High pressure over the NW Atlc will shift ESE ahead
of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast. The front will
reach from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba
late Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile, a trough over the eastern
Dominican Republic extending NNE into the adjacent Atlantic will
move over to the SE Bahamas by late Thu. The trough will reside
over the Bahamas near 75W early Fri, then lose identity by the
time the cold front reaches a position from Bermuda to eastern
Cuba on Sat.
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