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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Feb 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf
during the late overnight hours, then sweep across the basin
through Thu night. Near- gale force N winds with frequent gusts to
gale- force will follow the front across the northwestern Gulf
today. Gale- force N winds will develop off Tampico, Mexico Wed
and Wed night, and off Veracruz, Mexico tonight through Thu 
night. These winds will produce very rough to high seas, peaking 
at 16 to 18 ft under the strongest winds. Both winds and seas will
diminish during the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: 
Large, long-period NW swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas
of 12 to 15 ft across the central and eastern subtropical
Atlantic, north of 12N and east of 33W. This swell will subside
gradually overnight and Wednesday. A new set of large reinforcing
NW swell will bring another round of 12 to 18 ft seas north of 
20N between 25W and 55W, then subside to 12 to 15 ft as the swell 
moves east of 35W Fri.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N14W, then continues to the southwest toward 00N20W. The 
ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 02S30W, then to the coast of Brazil
near Fortaleza. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02S
to 03N between 08W and 18W, and from 01N to 03N between 23W and
28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in
the Gulf of America.

Recent observations from buoys and platforms from the north-
central Gulf indicate fresh to strong easterly winds mainly in the
coastal waters of Louisiana, and along a stationary front
extending east-to-west from near the mouth of Mississippi River to
Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active along and north of this boundary off Louisiana. Locally
rough seas are likely in this area as well, with gusty winds
possible near the thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient is supporting generally gentle to moderate E to
SE breezes and 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except for light
breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas over the northeast Gulf. 

For the forecast, after the the gale conditions expected to 
arrive with the next cold front as described in the Special 
Features section, a trough will likely develop from the frontal 
remnants over the southwestern Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat 
night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected through 
the period, becoming more confined to the waters north of 22N and 
west of 90W Fri through Sat night. Conditions improve Sun and Sun 
night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting a trade-wind
regime across the entire basin. An earlier scatterometer satellite
pass confirmed fresh to strong winds off Colombia, and a
concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed 8 to 11 ft seas there.
Moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere,
except light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft over the northwest 
Caribbean south of Cuba. No significant showers or thunderstorms
are observed.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and moderate 
seas will continue over most sections of the central and eastern 
Caribbean through early Sun before diminishing some through the 
remainder of the period. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough
seas are expected offshore of Colombia into the upcoming weekend.
Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas will 
prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through Thu night, then 
return Sat night through Sun night. A weakening frontal boundary 
will approach the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri, reach the 
Windward Passage Fri night into Sat before dissipating Sat night. 
Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front N of the 
area will lead to the development of fresh to strong NE winds in 
the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat 
night. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of 
the Lesser Antilles through Fri night, subsiding afterward. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Significant Swell.

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N55W to 27N66W, then continues as a stationary 
front to 25N75W. Moderate NE winds are along the front west of 
65W, and east of the front north of 28N. The remainder of the 
subtropical Atlantic north of 20N is characterized by a broad 
surface ridge extending from the northeast Atlantic to 1024 mb 
high pressure near 26N50W, then westward toward the southern 
Bahamas. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes elsewhere north
of 22N, west of 35W, and moderate NE winds east of 35W and north 
of 22N. Fresh NE to E trade winds are noted south of 22N. Seas are
4 to 6 ft outside of the areas of large swell described in the 
Special Features section. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become fully 
stationary and weaken from 29N55W to 27N64W early on Wed. Fresh to
strong southeast winds will develop over the northeast Florida 
offshore waters Wed morning ahead of the next cold front forecast 
to come off the coast Wed evening. This front will reach from near
31N77W to Vero Beach, Florida Wed night, from near 31N63W to the 
southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Thu night, from near 29N55W to 
the Windward Passage Fri night and begin to weaken as it reaches 
from near 26N55W to 22N64W to the Windward Passage Sat night. 
Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind this front 
north of about 27N through Fri. Strong high pressure will build 
Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant tight 
gradient will bring fresh to strong NE winds to the Straits of 
Florida and the Great Bahama Bank primarily south of 25N Fri night
into Sat night. Conditions diminish Sun and Sun night as another 
cold front moves across the northwest part of the area.

$$
Christensen