Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 070437

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.


Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING:

The strong pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north
of the region and lower pressure NW South America will continue 
to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south- 
central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia through late 
week. Seas will peak near 13 ft during the strongest winds. 
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore 
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for 
more details.


A broad area of 12 to 14 ft seas are ongoing N of 20N between 35W
and 55W due to NW swell of 12 to 15 seconds. These seas will 
gradually decay through Tue night, with seas falling below 12 ft
by late Tue. However, large northerly swell generated by the 
hurricane-force low in the NW Atlantic is moving into our
discussion waters. Seas will build to near 18 ft by Wed morning 
behind a cold front from 31N51W to the SE Bahamas. Seas will drop
below 12 ft Thu. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more 


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N14W to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 0416W to 01N33W to
01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on
each side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ east of 45W.


High pressure over the NE United Stated extends southwestward to
the Gulf of Mexico. A dry airmass dominates the basin, suppressing
the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient is
tightening in the western Gulf due to lower pressures over Mexico.
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds west of 94W. Seas in these
waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker 
anticyclonic winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico will 
move eastward over the next few days. Southerly return flow will 
increase to fresh to locally strong tonight into early Tue over 
the western Gulf, with fresh winds spreading to the remainder of 
the Gulf Tue. Strong winds will also develop off NW Cuba and the 
NW Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. A cold front will enter the 
western Gulf on Wed with strong N winds likely behind it over the 
far west-central Gulf, and quickly diminishing as the front 
reaches the central Gulf early Thu, before stalling and weakening.
A stronger cold front will enter the Gulf Thu evening, reach from
the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Fri morning, and exit the basin 
to the southeast by early Sat. Gale force NW to N winds are 
possible behind the front over the SW Gulf Fri into Fri night.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the 
GALE WARNING that is in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia.

Pockets of shallow moisture riding the trade winds are producing
isolated showers between SW Hispaniola and Honduras and in the SE
Caribbean Sea. Generally dry weather is seen elsewhere in the
basin. The strong pressure gradient between the ridge to the north
of the islands and lower pressures in NW South America result in
fresh to strong easterly winds over a large portion of the 
central, eastern Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. The strongest 
winds are occurring off NW Colombia that nightly pulse to gale 
force, as seen in the Special Features section. Seas outside of 
the Special Features area are in the 5-8 ft range, except for 2-5
ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
maintain a strong pressure gradient across the central Caribbean 
Sea through the week. Strong easterly winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force off Colombia 
nightly through late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft 
during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the Windward 
Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras late Tue through late 
this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will 
also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern
Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold 
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Fri night, with fresh to 
strong N winds coming into the NW Caribbean behind the front.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the 
hazardous seas occurring SE of Bermuda. 

A cold front extends from 31N62W to the central Bahamas. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present ahead of the
frontal boundary to 60W and north of 26N. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass show fresh to near gale-force winds north of 28N
and between 55W and 75W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Fresh
easterly winds are also present in the water passages of the
Bahamian archipelago and between the island group and the northern
coast of Cuba and SE Florida. Seas in the waters described are 2-4

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong 1014 mb high 
pressure system centered north of the Azores. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds over most of the
central and eastern Atlantic. The strongest winds are prevalent
south of 25N and east of 55W. Seas in these waters are 8-13 ft,
with the highest seas occurring near 22N44W. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from near Bermuda
to the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of 
the front, forecast to reach from 31N60W to the Turks and Caicos 
Islands by Tue morning, and from 31N50W to the SE Bahamas Wed 
morning. Strong wind speeds will continue north of 28N on both 
sides of the front through Tue night. Large swell will build in 
Wed behind the front and spread southward across the basin through
late week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the 
Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage late Tue through 
Thu night. Looking ahead a cold front will move east of Florida 
Fri night with strong winds on both sides of the front.


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Feb-2023 04:37:45 UTC