Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 120605

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.


A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa. This
wave is along 18W, south of 23N. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 06N to 17N between the coast of Africa to 24W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W, south of 23N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
noted from 06N to 10N between 24W and 33W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W south of 23N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along the wave axis from the U.S. Virgin Islands south
to the ABC Islands.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W south of 20N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted in the vicinity of the wave.


The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near 
19N16W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to the coast of
Brazil near 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated to the
tropical waves, scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in
the vicinity of the boundaries and near the coast of Brazil. 


A 1015 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the northwest 
Gulf near 26N93W. A surface trough is observed from 22N89W to 
18N91W, with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough
axis. To the east, a mid-level trough, with plenty of moisture 
in the region, is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms
from the eastern Gulf across the FL peninsula. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the northeastern Gulf with light to gentle 
winds elsewhere. Wave heights are generally 3 ft or less across 
the region.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several 
days producing gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the 
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the western 
coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. 


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
moving across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the south-central
Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. 
Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south-central Caribbean,
2-4 ft over the northwest Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. In 
the latest TPW, most of the moisture remains concentrated to the
south of 14N in the south-central Caribbean. The Pacific monsoon
trough extends from N of Colombia westward to Costa Rica. An area
of scattered to moderate convection is noted south of 14N between
74W to 83W. 

Atlantic high pressure extending a ridge to the northern 
Caribbean along with lower pressure over northern Colombia and 
the passage of a tropical wave will maintain fresh to strong winds
E of 80W through Thu. Fresh winds will pulse to strong at night 
in the Gulf of Honduras most of the forecast period.


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave 
moving across the basin.

A mid-level trough extends over and just east of Florida. This is
Enhancing scattered moderate convection over the waters north of
23N to 31N and west of 72W. A deep-layer ridge prevails elsewhere
across the waters N of 20N, with a surface ridge axis extending 
from 1024 mb high pressure near 32N52W to the central Bahamas. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure 
troughing over the southeastern U.S. is supporting fresh to 
strong southerly winds N of 27N between 72W and 76W, where seas 
are building to near 8 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail in the 
vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade 
winds prevail, with peak seas around 7-8 ft. 

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters 
north of 27N and west of 70W through Mon, as the pressure 
gradient tightens between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower 
pressure over the SE CONUS. Winds and seas will diminish early 
next week as high pressure builds across the northern waters. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist around the 
southern periphery of the ridge.


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Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Jul-2020 06:05:36 UTC