Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 230940

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.


Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 34.3N 76.9W at 23/0900
UTC or 20 nm SW of Cape Lookout North Carolina, moving NNW at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. 
Peak seas are currently around 28 ft. Landfall will be in the next
couple of hours along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is 
expected after landfall through the rest of the weekend, and 
winds will diminish below tropical storm force within a day or so.
There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials. Also please read the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Ophelia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Storm warning associated with Invest 90L: The axis of a tropical 
wave is analyzed along 36W with a 1008 mb low centered at 16N35W 
where the tropical intersects the monsoon trough. Maximum winds 
are currently 30 kt. A recent altimeter satellite pass indicated 
seas area approaching 12 ft in the northern quadrant of the low. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90
nm of the low pressure. A tropical cyclone is likely to form 
during the next couple of days while the system moves generally 
westward at 10 kt. The system is then expected to turn west- 
northwestward early next week as it moves over the central 
tropical Atlantic. The formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please
see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more information.


Please see the Special Features Section for details on the 
tropical wave (Invest 90L) along 36W.

A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa, passing
through 17W at 10 to 15 kt, and extending from 05N to 20N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm either side of
the tropical wave axis.  

A tropical wave has its axis along 61W/62W passing through near 
the Lesser Antilles south of 22N, moving westward around 10 kt. A
few showers are noted near the wave axis.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 11N25W to the aforementioned low 
pressure (Invest 90L) near 16N35W, before terminating near 08N45W.
No ITCZ is evident in the tropical Atlantic at this time. 
No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough outside
of the convection already described near the tropical waves.


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect 
the southeast Gulf waters and the Florida Straits in association 
with a surface trough that extends from western Cuba to the
south-central Gulf. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is under the 
influence of a weak high pressure system positioned off the 
southern coast of Louisiana, sustaining moderate or weaker winds 
and seas of 1-3 ft. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are 
likely occurring near the stronger convection.

For the forecast, the surface trough over the southeast Gulf will drift
into the western Gulf early next week and dissipate. Meanwhile,
weak high pressure will persist over the north-central and
northeast Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to moderate NE to
E winds and slight seas across the basin through the middle of
next week. 


A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a surface trough
running parallel to the south coast of Cuba. This is at the base
of an upper trough extending along the coast of Florida into the
northwest Caribbean. Surface high pressure building over the
western Atlantic in the wake of T.S. Ophelia is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the eastern
and central Caribbean, except for fresh trade winds and 5 to 6 ft
seas off Colombia and Venezuela. Gentle breezes and slight seas
are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high pressure building north of the region 
will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across 
most of the eastern and central Caribbean through early next week,
with fresh to strong pulses off northwest Venezuela and northeast
Colombia during mainly the overnight and early morning hours. 
Looking ahead, seas will build in mixed NE and E swell across 
waters east of the Leeward Islands starting early Mon, ahead of 
low pressure moving westward across the tropical Atlantic, 
possibly as the next tropical cyclone. 


Please see the Special Features section section above for 
information on Tropical Storm Ophelia and the storm warning
associated with Invest 90L.

Divergence aloft and low-level convergence associated with
Tropical Storm Ophelia well north of the area maintain scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection from the southern Bahamas
to near Bermuda, and along much of the central and northern
Bahamas. Farther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
also active within 60 nm west of another deep layer trough
reaching from 29N50W to 22N55W. An altimeter pass confirmed rough
seas along this trough as well, due in part to large NE swell.
Elsewhere outside of the vicinity of the strong winds and rough
seas associated with Invest 90L, weak high pressure is maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in mixed swell across
the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell on the 
southern periphery of Ophelia will continue to impact the waters 
off northeast Florida through the morning. A weak ridge will build
in the wake of Ophelia off Florida through early next week, and a
trough will persist across the Bahamas through Mon. Looking 
ahead, seas will build in mixed NE and E swell across waters 
northeast of the Leeward Islands starting Mon, ahead of low 
pressure moving westward across the tropical Atlantic, possibly as
the next tropical cyclone. 


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Sep-2023 09:40:43 UTC