Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 161001

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
501 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.


A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico by Monday night. Gale-force northerly winds are forecast 
to occur behind the front along the coast near Tampico and 
Veracruz, Mexico, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSFAT2 for more details. 


The monsoon trough extends from coastal Guinea near 08N13W to 
04N24W to 05N36W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N46W. 
Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N-06N between 
16W-27W, and along the ITCZ from 00N-06N between 34W-41W. 


Generally quiet weather conditions exist across the Gulf of Mexico 
supported by a surface ridge that extends across the basin from a
1025 mb high pressure in the west Atlantic. Surface winds are 
generally out of the southeast and south over much of the region, 
and are moderate to fresh over the northern and western Gulf 

Fresh to strong S return flow over W Gulf will persist today. A 
strong cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight, extend 
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tue afternoon, 
then move across the SE Gulf by Wed afternoon. N gales and 
building seas are expected west of the front near the coast of 
Mexico Tue through Wed. Winds and seas will diminish over the 
central and western Gulf Thu through Fri. Strong NE to E winds 
will continue over the Straits of Florida after the frontal 
passage Thu through Fri.


Scattered showers persist during the past several hours over 
Hispaniola and adjacent waters, related to a surface trough that 
extends from 21N72W to 14N74W. An upper trough over the Yucatan 
Peninsula is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms west of 82W 
to across the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, generally fair weather 
persists across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data 
depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. 


A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N13W to 
23N73W. Scattered showers are seen 60 nm southeast of the cold 
front. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front across
the far west Atlantic with a 1025 mb high pressure. To the east, 
another cold front enters the area near 31N15W to 24N30W to 
30N45W. Strong northwesterly winds and scattered showers exist 
behind this boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure is supporting 
generally fair weather conditions. 

The cold front will stall and weaken overnight into Mon across 
the northern waters. A stronger cold front will move off the 
southeast U.S. coast Tue night, then extend from near 31N70W 
across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba on Wed night. Strong N to 
NE winds and building seas are expected across much of the region
following frontal passage. The front will cross the southern 
Bahamas on Thu, then stall over the central waters Thu night 
through Fri night. 


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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Dec-2019 10:01:48 UTC