Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 271839 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Corrected Time for Surface Analysis

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 14N southward, 
and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 02N 
to 11N between 19W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 10N southward 
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this feature on the latest analysis. 

A far western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 17N
southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and moving 
westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is observed near 
this wave on the latest analysis.


A monsoon trough exits into the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau to 07N18W. An ITCZ extends from 05N22W across 
01N33W to EQ46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N 
to 25N between 22W and 30W, and also from 03N to the coast of 
Sierra Leone and Liberia.

The eastern end of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is 
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Costa
Rica, Panama and nearby Caribbean waters.


A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, passing just
south of New Orleans to near Galveston, Texas. Aided by divergent
winds aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms are present over
the northeastern Gulf. A surface ridge extends from central 
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds 
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the northeast Gulf. Light to 
gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sustain gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow over the area through the weekend. 
Fresh southerly winds will develop across the northwestern waters
by early next week as pressure gradient increases in the area. 


Convergent trades are coupling with divergent upper-level winds to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SE
basin, including the Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
noted across the central and south central basin. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will 
support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean 
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off
Colombia and Venezuela each night through early next week.


A weakening cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N60W, a surface
trough is found farther west near 28N67W. Widely scattered showers
are evident north of 24N between 50W and 72W. Another surface
trough reaches from southwest of the Azores across 31N35W to 
25N46W. Widely scattered showers are occurring north of 25N
between 31W and 45W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic 

The subtropical ridge dominates much of the tropical Atlantic, 
supporting light to gentle with locally moderate winds and 2 to 5
ft seas. The exception is 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell north
of 28N between 53W and 67W, and moderate to fresh southerly winds
off the northern Florida coast.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward through tonight as a cold front 
moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, fresh winds
are expected off the NE Florida coast through Sat morning. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the region 
through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh 
over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the weekend and 
into early next week. 



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Page last modified: Friday, 27-May-2022 18:39:57 UTC