000
AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Dec 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2354UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N17W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 
03N51W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ between 22W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the central Gulf of Mexico, 
stretching from north of Tampa Bay to 25N90W where it becomes 
stationary and extends to just south of the Brownsville, TX 
coast. A 1021 mb low pressure is analyzed near 25N96W along the 
stationary front. Isolated shower are occurring off the 
Brownsville coast from 25N to 28N west of 95W.

Behind the front, fresh to strong NE wind are noted off the Texas
coast with moderate to fresh NE winds off the Florida to Louisiana
coast. West of 90W and behind the front seas are 6 to 9 ft. 
While, seas are 3 to 6 ft behind the front and E of 90W. Ahead 
of the front, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to 
rough seas follow a cold front moving from Spring Hill, Florida 
to the central Gulf near 25N90W where it transitions to a 
stationary front that connects to a 1021 mb low pressure just SE 
of the coast of southern Texas. The cold front will reach the 
Florida Straits by early Sat and then dissipate while the 
stationary portion of the front lift northward as a warm front 
before dissipating Sat night. Broad high pressure will build 
north of the area behind the front into Mon, supporting moderate 
to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. Looking ahead, a 
stronger cold front is forecast to enter the far northwest Gulf 
Tue night, followed by strong to gale-force winds and rapidly 
building seas. The front is forecast to reach from Venice, 
Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of 
Campeche by Wed afternoon and exit the basin Wed evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region combined with lower pressure
near the Colombia coast is bringing fresh to near gale-force winds
off the coast of Colombia according to the latest Scatterometer
data. Seas are 7 to 9 ft especially near the strongest winds. 
Across the rest of the Caribbean, strong pressure gradient is 
giving way to moderate to fresh winds with NE winds noted in the 
northwest Caribbean and easterly winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean. Seas mostly range 4 to 7 ft. Isolated thunderstorms 
are noted in northern Honduras, otherwise no significant 
precipitation is occurring across the basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region is 
supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Colombia, and
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas elsewhere. The high 
pressure north of the region will build through Sat following a 
cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico and the western 
Atlantic. This will allow winds to gradually increase in 
intensity and areal extent over the northwest Caribbean, Windward
Passage, and central Caribbean Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, 
winds and seas will diminish over the northwest Caribbean and 
Windward Passage Mon night and Tue as the high pressure shifts 
eastward into the central Atlantic. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE
winds will prevail over the Colombia offshore waters through Wed
morning. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends off the northeast
Florida coast from 31N66W to Cape Canaveral, Florida near 
28.5N81W. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are behind the 
front. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are ahead of the front 
with 8 to 11 ft seas N of 28N between 62W and 74W. No significant
convection is associated with the front at this time. An old 
boundary is lingering southeast of the front as a trough, 
extending from 30N57W to 23N64W. Moderate to fresh winds are 
occurring north of Cuba and near the Windward Passage.

In the central Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds are noted N of
23N between 32W and 56W. Seas in this region range 5 to 7 ft. 
Farther south, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail S of 23N and
west of 30W. Seas range 7 to 9 ft, with the higher seas near the
fresh winds.

In the eastern Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 20N32W to 
27N35W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 23N between
the trough and the west coast of Africa due to an upper level 
trough. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 14.5N E of 29W. 
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 
Bermuda to 28N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida will reach from 
31N58W to the Straits of Florida tonight, from 31N55W to 27N68W 
by Sat afternoon, and move over the central Atlantic subtropical 
waters Sun afternoon before dissipating. High pressure will build
between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat into Tue. Looking 
ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast
Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach
from 31N80W to St Augustine Wed afternoon and from 31N74W to the
Straits of Florida Wed night. Strong winds and rough seas will 
rapidly build as the front moves across the Bahamas and the 
Florida Peninsula.

$$ KRV