000
AXNT20 KNHC 111029
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1025 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to 
gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough
seas are forecast with these winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 10N to 14N and between 53W and 65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 08N34W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N34W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 04N to 11N and between 22W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The storm activity over the SE Gulf has diminished in the past
couple of hours, however, some showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted in the northern and NW Gulf. The subtropical ridge
weakly extends into the Gulf waters supporting moderate or lighter
winds and seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, an upper level low pressure currently over the NW 
Bahamas will progress westward over the next several days, supporting
scattered moderate to strong convection. Additionally, a frontal 
boundary will approach the northern Gulf coast enhancing the storm
activity across the area this weekend and into early next week. 
Mariners should expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and higher 
seas near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, high pressure will 
dominate into next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate SE 
winds. However, fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia.

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW
Caribbean, especially west of 82W. Similar convection is noted in
the SW Caribbean. Meanwhile, a tropical wave approaching the
Lesser Antilles is bringing some showers to the SE Caribbean. 

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low is supporting strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds
and rough to very rough seas over the central Caribbean and
Windward Passage, reaching gale force off Colombia. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the 
remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the islands and lower
environmental pressures over northern South America combine to 
support strong to near gale-force easterly trades and rough seas 
over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. This 
pattern will persist into next week. Winds will pulse to gale-
force off Colombia this morning and tonight. Trades over the Gulf 
of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast
period. Finally, moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean into next 
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low pressure and abundant tropical moisture 
combine to produce numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the NW Bahamas and nearby waters. Farther east, divergence
aloft and a frontal boundary just north of our area support
scattered showers north of 26N and between 53W and 61W. The rest
of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge that sustains fresh to strong easterly trade
winds and locally rough seas off Haiti and eastern Cuba and the SE
Bahamas. The strongest winds and seas are at the entrance of the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-9
ft are noted south of 23N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper level low pressure
currently over the NW Bahamas will move westward through the 
weekend, bringing thunderstorms with locally strong winds, 
frequent lightning and higher seas. Meanwhile, the subtropical 
ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate
to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the 
north. Pulsing strong and locally rough seas winds are expected 
each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

$$
Delgado