000
AXNT20 KNHC 242128
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Dec 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Very large NW swell is combining 
with waves generated by strong NNE winds behind a cold front moving 
eastward through the Central Atlantic to induce very rough seas 
greater than 12 ft across a wide swath of waters N of 22N between 
40W and 59W. Rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a 
line from 23N73W to 19N53W to 30N38W. Peak seas near 14 ft will 
subside below 12 ft overnight. Another cold front extending from a 
storm force low north of the area has entered the forecast waters. A 
new set of NW swell generated from this storm will bring another 
round of very rough seas to the region starting on Thu and 
continuing through Fri. Gale force winds are expected behind the 
front tonight into Thursday, mainly N of 30N. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N14W to 
04.5N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N19W to 00N49W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 13W and 16W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf with scattered moderate
convection in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds
are over the SE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the SE Gulf and 2-4 ft
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over southern 
Mississippi will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds and moderate to rough seas across the Straits of Florida and
the southeast Gulf through tonight. Areas of fog are possible
across the northern Gulf into Thu. A ridge will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the Gulf region the remainder of 
the week, with a high pressure center located over the northeast 
Gulf Thu through Sat. This system will produce mainly a gentle to 
moderate wind flow with slight to moderate seas. The next cold 
front is slated to enter the northwest Gulf on Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over the
south central Caribbean, with seas in the 7-9 ft range. Fresh to
strong winds are also over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere W of
70W, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. E of
70W, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western 
Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support 
fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, 
and the central Caribbean through Thu night, except through Mon 
off Colombia. Long period northerly swell moving into the 
northeastern passages will gradually subside Thu. This will be 
followed by additional northerly swell arriving into northeastern 
passages late Fri into Sat before subsiding Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell/Gale Warning.

Aside from conditions discussed above, a cold front extends from 
31N37W to 24N47W where it transitions to a weakening stationary 
front that continues to 20N64W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to 
strong winds are N of 27N within 60 nm west of the front. A second
cold front enters the waters near 31N66W to 30N75W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the 
front. Fresh to strong winds are N of 30N east of the front to 
69W. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas 
generally prevails.

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail of a weakening stationary 
front extending from 23N50W to north of the Puerto Rico will 
gradually dissipate through late today. A stronger front extending
from near Bermuda to 30N75W will move into the waters north of 
27N and east of 75W through early Thu. Large swell continues to 
impact the region east of the Bahamas. Strong winds and a new 
group of large reinforcing swell will follow this front, mainly 
over the waters east of 70W through tonight through Thu. Winds to 
gale force will briefly impact the area north of 30N southeast of 
Bermuda overnight. Another front will move into the waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda Fri, before moving east of the area
Sat, bringing additional reinforcing swell east of 70W. Yet 
another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat, and 
move east of the region through Mon. 

$$
AL