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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXNT20 KNHC 182314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 614 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the Caribbean will continue to induce strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. These winds are forecast to reach gale force during the night time hours tonight and Saturday night. ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning, and it should move quickly southeastward. The front is expected to clear the entire Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. Strong northerly winds, which are forecast to reach gale force, are expected behind the front midday Saturday through Saturday night over the western Gulf of Mexico. ...GALE WARNING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... Southerly winds are expected to increase over portions of the western Atlantic Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold front that will be moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly and southwesterly winds are forecast to reach gale force east of northern Florida and Georgia prior to and along with the cold front by early Sunday morning. These gales will migrate eastward into Sunday night. For additional information on all of these warning areas, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is seen from 00N-04N between 12W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 210 nm north and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 27W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough marked by a line of low-level clouds extends across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure and fair weather cover the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over the northwestern Gulf, fresh to locally strong southerly winds are now being observed and will continue to increase to strong this evening ahead of a low pressure system currently over the south- central United States. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed north of 27.5N between 93W-96W. A strong cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning and move across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Saturday night. Gale force winds are forecast to occur behind the front over the western Gulf. See above for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Only typical patches of low clouds and some embedded isolated showers exist across eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the waters near the Cayman Islands. The trade winds are strongest near the coast of Colombia, and they are expected to reach gale force during the night time hours tonight and Saturday night. See above for more details. Otherwise, winds are light to moderate across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A series of troughs exist across the subtropical Atlantic. The weakest one of the group lies north of the northwestern Bahamas from 28N79W to 31N75W, and this feature is only producing disorganized cloudiness near its axis. Another trough lies to the east of the central Bahamas from 22N73W to 29N71W, with a few showers possible east of the trough axis from 23N-29N between 68W-72W. A weak 1018 mb surface low lies over the central Atlantic near 26N60W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted from 26N-29N between 57W-60W. More significant showers and thunderstorms are located farther east, north of 24N between 44W-49W, primarily associated with an upper-level trough. High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic supported by a 1031 mb high near 34N27W. The big weather event this weekend is expected to be associated with a strong cold front that is forecast to move over the western Atlantic on Sunday. Gale-force winds are forecast ahead of and along with this boundary. See above for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen