000
AXNT20 KNHC 250436
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient the 
northwestern zones into Sun, the result of strong high pressure 
building southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure
deepening near the Bahamas along a nearly stationary front that
extends NE toward Bermuda, will induce widespread gales. NE to E
winds of up to 40 kt and very rough seas will prevail for waters N
of 27N between 60W and 76W through early Mon as the front remains
in place, with conditions only slowly improving through mid-week. 
Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine 
conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the 
affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 

Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper- level 
trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical
moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands through Mon. By Sun, model guidance indicates that 
the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The main 
areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical 
moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of 
Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward 
Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns for
dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to 
your local weather services and the International Desk at the 
Weather Prediction Center for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
15N17W southwestward to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to
10N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 09N to 16N between 22W-35W, and from 06N to 12N between 
31W-40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure building into the southeastern United States
continues to support fresh to strong NE winds over the NE basin,
with moderate to fresh NE winds elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail,
with locally rough seas offshore Florida.  

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high
pressure and low pressure forecast to deepen near the central 
Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over 
the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits tonight through 
early Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther
east through the early part of the upcoming week.

A surface trough extends southward from 1013 mb low pressure
centered just E of the Bahamas across eastern Cuba and Jamaica.
The trough combined with upper-level diffluence east of a mid to
upper-level trough axis over the NW Caribbean is support numerous
strong convection N of 15N between 71W and 76W, including waters
near Haiti and through the Windward Passage. Convection in the SW
basin in association with the East Pacific monsoon trough has
diurnally waned. Moderate to fresh NE winds encompass the NW
Caribbean to the west of the aforementioned surface trough, and
moderate to locally fresh trades are present in the eastern 
basin. Seas are generally moderate, except slight in the SW. The
highest seas are in the Yucatan Channel, where heights are
estimated to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, the mid to upper level trough over Florida, the
NW Caribbean and the Bahamas will shift very slowly eastward 
through Mon and support scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward 
Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough over the central 
Bahamas extending southward across Jamaica to 15N77W will drift 
eastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S.
will build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America 
through the weekend and lead to fresh N to NE winds and building 
seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough. Expect rough 
seas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon through Tue. 
Little change is expected elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy
rainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos 
Islands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola.

A stationary front extends from near 31N52W to 29N69W to a 1013 mb
low pressure near 26N74W. A surface trough then extends southward
from this low across eastern Cuba. Widespread strong to gale-force
winds and rough seas are north of the front, and to the east of
the surface trough, numerous thunderstorms are noted from the
Turks and Caicos southward into the Windward Passage and nearshore
waters of Haiti. To the east, another surface trough extends from
27N62W to just north of Dominican Republic. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted in association with this
feature from 20N to 30N between 60W and 70W. Away from the
convection strong S winds are E of the trough from 23N to 27N
between 62W and 67W. Farther east, the Azores ridge dominates, 
providing mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas. Strong winds 
are funneling through the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will
continue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight through
Sun as strong high pressure builds southward over the western 
Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas, and 
just S of a stationary front along 28N-29N. This setup is expected
to induce widespread strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and 
very rough seas building to 20 ft, with gale-force winds expected 
over much of the waters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early
Sun through Mon morning. The front is expected to stall from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas 
diminishing very slowly through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain 
alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary
precautions to avoid these affected areas. 

$$
Konarik