000
AXNT20 KNHC 082147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb 
Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South 
America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the 
south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through next week,
with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia.
The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along
28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds 
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas 
will build into the 12 to 13 ft range during the time of the 
gale-force winds. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 29W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets 
the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 
12N between 27W and 33W.

The tropical wave is along 41W from 07N to 19N moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N and 12N
between 37W and 44W.

A tropical wave is near 57W from 09N to 19N, moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between
55W and 60W. 

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west 
coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will 
be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N16N and continues westward to near 11N25W then on
to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N42W to 10N55W. Most of the 
convective activity across the area is related to the tropical 
waves. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough over the eastern Gulf extends from the Florida Big Bend
area to 25N85W. Another trough is over the Bay of Campeche. This
weak pressure pattern is supporting mostly light breezes and 1-3
ft seas across the basin. Diffluent flow aloft is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central and west-
central parts of the basin.
 
For the forecast, the surface trough extending southwestward from the
Big Bend of Florida into the eastern Gulf will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon as the trough
moves inland. Similar activity is expected in the Bay of
Campeche and SW Gulf with the passage of a diurnal surface
trough. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High
westward across the northern Gulf, and will dominate most of the
basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E
to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds
will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the
SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect
for the waters north of Colombia. 

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located west
of Bermuda near 32N68W and the Colombian low continues to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are
8 to 12 ft across much of this area. Moderate to fresh trades are
over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are 
observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are between Cuba and Jamaica, across the
Cayman Islands and regional waters, and south of western Cuba, 
including the Yucatan Channel. 

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin 
through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight 
offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually 
shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to 
near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to locally 
strong speeds during the evenings and nights in the Gulf of 
Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. 
Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
The Atlantic ridge looks to shift farther southward later next 
week, which may act to increase easterly trade winds again across 
the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast
Florida and the northern Bahamas, related to diffluent flow 
aloft. A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 25N across the 
basin, broken only by a trough reaching from 31N45W to 25N55W. 
Saharan dust is evident mainly east of this trough, north of 15N. 
The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 
22N and west of 60W with 4-6 ft seas, fresh to strong NE winds and
5-7 ft seas over the Canary Islands, and mostly gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a low level trough extending across
northern Florida will shift NW and further inland today. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to 
75W will shift northwestward today, then persist N of 30N through 
Sun. Otherwise, a 1023 mb Bermuda High and an attendant ridge will
shift slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds 
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward 
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening 
and night. The Atlantic ridge then looks to drop a bit farther 
southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly 
winds. 

$$
Christensen