434 
AXNT20 KNHC 080524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 03N
to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W, moving 
westward near 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at 
this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south 
of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W south of 19N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. For related convection information, 
please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion 
(TWDEP).

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues
southwestward to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
07N37W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are
noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ between 41W and 49W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is draped across northern Florida and the 
Florida panhandle. The combination of this frontal boundary, 
with deep moisture already in place over the area and an upper- 
level trough digging southward over the southeastern U.S. and a 
trough that extends from central Florida southwestward to just west 
of Key West and near the Dry Tortugas will continue to favor 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the 
eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the Florida 
peninsula and the southern portion of Alabama, Mississippi and 
southeastern Louisiana going into the middle part of the week. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident south of 25N 
west of 90W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere.

Weak high pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 28N94W. Its 
associated weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for light 
to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin per latest buoy 
observations, scatterometer data and a few satellite altimeter 
data passes.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will persist 
across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak 
pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds 
and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh
with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the 
evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the 
peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is 
sustaining fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over 
the south-central Caribbean. Mostly moderate trades and moderate 
are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern
portion of the sea, where light to gentle winds are continuing.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas over 
the south-central Caribbean will increase in areal coverage 
through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough 
seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong 
winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical 
wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu 
morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed extending from weak low pressure 
of 1015 mb near 31N72W southwestward to 30N81W. To the south of 
this boundary, a surface trough is analyzed along 79W and S of 
29N. Scattered moderate convection prevails near the trough mainly
W of 77W. A mid to upper-level northeast to southwest oriented 
trough situated north of Hispaniola continues to support 
scattered showers S of 25N between 64W and 70W. A high center of 
1028 mb is north of the area at 34W28W. A ridge stretches across
the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between the 
high pressure and a pair of tropical waves moving through the 
tropical Atlantic region is supporting fresh to strong winds north
of 11N and east of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas 
over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are 
over the waters west of about 70W. Moderate to fresh trades along 
with moderate seas are present elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure 
will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid 
week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N 
Tue night through Thu. The stationary front will linger near 31N 
through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms
will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through 
Tue night. 

$$
ERA