000
AXNT20 KNHC 081647
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1647 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support fresh to near gale trades over the central 
Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale- 
force at night off Colombia, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force 
winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat
night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft Sat. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 
03N to 15N, and is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection noted from 06N to 09N between 27W and 35W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55.5W south 
of 17N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is depicted at the moment in association with this
wave.  

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W south of 18N.
It is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is 
depicted at the moment in association with this wave. 


A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has now moved into the
Eastern Pacific. For more information about this tropical wave, 
please read the Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern 
Pacific Ocean (TWDEP). 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 21N17W and
continues southwestward to 07N35W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02N
to 08N between 36W and 42W. Similar convection is well south of 
the trough from 06N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure is extending westward across the 
basin from the Atlantic. The associated pressure gradient is 
generally allowing for light to gentle variable winds north of 
24N and for gentle to moderate easterly winds south of 24N, 
except for mostly moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 
of slight state, except for moderate state seas in the Bay of 
Campeche. Meanwhile, an upper-level low and mid-level trough over
the western Bay of Campeche is acting on a very unstable and 
moisture- laden atmosphere. This has lead to the development of 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the west- central 
and southwestern portions of the basin, south of about 26N and 
west of 93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also present 
north of 26N between 86W and 91W. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned relatively weak high 
pressure will change little through Thu night, then shift 
northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. 
The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to 
gentle southeast to south winds north of about 26N. The exception 
will be fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the 
Yucatan peninsula at night due to the diurnal trough that moves 
westward from the Yucatan peninsula. A mid to upper- level low 
acting on a very unstable and moisture- laden atmosphere will 
generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the 
SW Gulf, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
elsewhere across the basin south of about 28N through Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions offshore Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela.

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
lower pressures over northern South America is bringing fresh to 
near gale trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds 
are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh east winds and seas of 
4 to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras while fresh to strong 
northeast winds are funneling into the Windward Passage. Seas 
there are also 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, mostly fresh trades are over 
the basin, except for gentle to moderate winds over the NW 
Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 18N and east of 83W and 3 
to 5 ft elsewhere. Upper divergence is helping to sustain 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of 
Honduras. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will
support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for 
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force at night off
Colombia, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also 
expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades 
over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in 
the late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A fast- 
moving tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles this 
evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the eastern 
Caribbean Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms may accompany this wave. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 27N, anchored 
by a 1025 mb high center at 26N44W. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is producing 
fresh to strong trades south of about 24N and between 63W and 78W. 
Seas of 5 to 7 ft are with these trades. Farther east, moderate to
fresh trades along with seas 5 to 8 ft prevail south of a line 
from 28N23W to 21N48W to 23N78W. North of that line, light to 
gentle winds prevail along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft remain. An
upper level trough north of the Hispaniola and Puerto Rico is 
supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms south of 23N between
64W and 72W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will
change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. 
The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of
23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N 
where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail. 
Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at 
night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward 
Passage through the weekend.

$$
KRV