969 
AXNT20 KNHC 072222
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda 
High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin 
through next week. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region 
will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and
accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speeds 
tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail there, 
building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of 
gale-force winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands. Its axis
is along 25W, extending from 06N to 19N, and moving west at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N
between 20W and 25W.

A tropical wave is near 44W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 57W, 
extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No 
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
westward to near 11N40W. The ITCZ extends continues from 10N43W 
to NE Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is noted 
elsewhere. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Atlantic ridge extends across the Carolinas and into the
north-central Gulf. A trough is moving westward through Florida.
This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
1-3 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across
the central Gulf.
 
For the forecast, the ridge will dominate across most of the Gulf
through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will 
occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of 
Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan 
Peninsula to the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high pressure located NW 
of Bermuda near 33N69W and the Colombian low continues to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, 
including the Gulf of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough 
seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are over the E Caribbean 
while gentle to locally moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. 
Seas are generally moderate with these latter winds. An upper-
level low spinning just south of Haiti and Jamaica is supporting 
scattered showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Jamaica as 
well as over the Cayman Islands and surrounding waters. Showers 
and thunderstorms are also noted in the SW Caribbean offshore 
western Panama and Costa Rica. Trade wind showers dominate the 
remainder of the basin. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central 
and portions of the SW basin through next week. Over the weekend, 
the ridge N of the region will shift southward, strengthening the 
pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speeds during the 
daytime and to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough
seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times 
coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds. Fresh winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the 
forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse to 
strong speeds mainly near the Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly 
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the northern
Bahamas and off the northeast coast of Florida, following a trough
currently moving into the Florida peninsula. Broad ridging
dominates the Atlantic north of 25N, supporting E to SE winds and
4-6 ft across the basin, except for fresh to strong NE winds near
the Canary Islands. Saharan dust covers the Atlantic north of 15N
and east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough over Florida 
will bring fresh winds and moderate seas across the Bahamas 
offshores through this afternoon. Seas may be locally rough in 
areas of stronger convection. Fresh E winds will prevail N of 
Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through 
the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening as the Bermuda 
High shifts southward. 

$$
Christensen