000
AXNT20 KNHC 111749
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1744 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical 
wave are occurring around 550 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more 
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a 
tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this 
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across 
the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance in the next 48 
hours is medium. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 07N to 19N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N 
to 13N between 28W and 40W. Please read the Special Features section 
above for more information about this wave. 

The axis of a tropical wave is along 52.5W from 07N to 18N, 
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N to 15N between 52W and 57W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 13N to 23N, moving 
west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are noted over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and over portions of Puerto Rico. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W S of 21N, moving west at 
15 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is depicted 
from 16N to 18.5N and west of 83W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and continues 
southwestward to 1014 mb low pres near 10N31W to 10N51W. Aside 
from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, 
scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N
and east of 21.5W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends from a High near 29N71W westward across 
the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and 
slight seas prevail across the Gulf waters. Typical gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds are occurring along the N and W coastal 
waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are blowing through the 
Straits of Florida, producing seas to 5 ft. A surface trough 
continues to drift westward across the Bay of Campeche and is 
yielding a small cluster of moderate convection offshore Veracruz.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will dominate 
the general wind flow pattern across basin through Sat night. 
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the basin, 
with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and 
west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each 
evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the 
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate 
seas are expected through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb High and a 1008 mb 
Colombian Low is supporting strong to near gale-force winds, and 
moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean S of 16N 
between 71W and 79W. Fresh NE winds prevail through the Windward 
Passage and south of Cuba, while moderate to fresh trade winds 
prevail across the NE Caribbean to the Mona Passage in advance of 
an approaching tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight
to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across SE and NW portions. 
Along and ahead of the tropical wave near 85W a cluster of 
moderate to strong convection is impacting the east coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula, the Gulf of Honduras, and most of the coast of 
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern 
South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over
the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge 
will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu allowing for the
trades to significantly expand in coverage to cover the eastern 
portion of the basin into early Sat. Winds are expected to reach 
near-gale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela 
each night, except Wed night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to 
strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the Windward 
Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh 
trades will prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 19N, anchored by a 
1023 mb high centered near 28N43W. Light to gentle winds 
generally prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 30W, with 
slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S
of 23N and west of 30W, and moderate seas to 7 ft. Fresh to 
strong N to NE winds continues from the Canary Islands to 19N to 
the east of 37W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Saharan Air dominates 
most of the basin N of 15N from Africa through the southern 
Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging along 28N 
will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu and change 
little into Sat. The gradient will tighten over the southern 
portion leading to an increase of the trades from the Bahamas 
eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the 
approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to 
strong speeds each night. Of note, an area of low pressure is 
located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more 
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a 
tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of 
this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward 
across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for 
tropical formation of this system within the next 7 days. 

$$
KRV