000
AXNT20 KNHC 100842
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, S of 14N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W, S of 15N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W, S of 18N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection 
associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N15W 
and extends SW to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 04N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds persist over the southern Gulf,
south of 24N, between weak high pressure extending from the
western Gulf to northeast Gulf, and lower pressure farther
southwest, anchored by T.S. Cristina off the Pacific coast of El
Salvador. Seas are 5-7 ft in the south-central Gulf, and 2-4 feet
elsewhere. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are active over the
far southwest Gulf, along the coasts of Tabasco and Veracrz. A 
few showers and thunderstorms are active from 24N to 26N supported
by upper level divergent flow.

For the forecast, the surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf
region the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh
winds in the western Gulf through much of this week. Slight to
moderate seas will also prevail. The exception will be off the
Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will support fresh E
winds pulsing to strong speeds during the evenings through Wed.
A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu through Fri night,
accompanied by numerous thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough 
seas across the west-central Gulf into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. 
Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador supports 
moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas from the central
Caribbean to the northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades 
and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador supports
fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas from south-central to the
northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas 
prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, a ridge will build across the 
western Atlantic Thu night through Sun. Expect fresh to strong SE
winds and rough seas over the northwest Caribbean west of 85W Thu
into Sat, between the ridge and the remnant of Cristina over 
southern Mexico. The building ridge will also support fresh to 
strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean
through Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Thunderstorms persist near weak 1015 mb low pressure 25N64W on 
the southern end of a surface trough extending to 30N55W. A
weak stationary front reaches from the Carolinas to south of
Bermuda. These features are distrupting the typical subtropical
ridge over the area west of 60W, supporting only gentle breezes
and 2-4 ft seas. Farther east, a ridge extends from 1029 mb high
pressure over the Azores ot 25N50W. Elsewhere east of 35W, the 
pattern is supporting gentle SE to S breezes and 5-6 ft seas along
the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of the 
ridge axis. East of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds 7-9 ft seas are
noted north of 24N, and gentle to moderate NE breezes and 4-6 ft
seas south of 24N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as 
it moves northeastward along the trough through Thu. Meanwhile, a 
weak stationary front currently between northeast Florida and 
Bermuda will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. 
The Atlantic ridge will build across the region late Thu through 
Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern will support 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from 
Fri night through Sun night. 

$$
Christensen