000
AXNT20 KNHC 270405
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Feb 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING
for the Canarias Offshore Zone. The forecast calls for N to NE 
winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts 
between the Canary Islands through at least 28/0000 UTC. Seas 
currently range from 12 to 15 ft.

For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas remain
8 to 11 ft in NW swell across all central and eastern Atlantic 
waters east of 60W based on several altimeter passes. One of them,
shows seas of 10 to 14 ft N of 14N and E of 20W. Another swell 
event with very rough seas will reach the Madeira and Canary 
Islands early next week. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds, 
with surges to near-gale force, will sustain 8 to 11 ft seas 
elsewhere, as strong subtropical high pressure maintains a tight 
pressure gradient across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic near 07N12W to 
04N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04S39W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N and E of 
29W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, and provides for 
moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the basin. Seas are 6 to 8
ft across the northern half of the Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly return flow across 
the west and central portions of the Gulf will gradually diminish
tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW 
Gulf early Fri. This front is expected to sink slowly southward 
across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night and 
gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will build back 
across the basin Sun into early next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low
supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds offshore Colombia. Seas are 8 to 9 ft 
with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate 
seas dominate the eastern Caribbean while mainly moderate SE winds
with moderate seas are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas 
are locally higher, to 8 ft, within Atlantic Passage between the 
Lesser Antilles and the Mona Passage, due to long period northerly
swell from the Atlantic.

For the forecast, the broad ridge over the central Atlantic will
continue to extend into the Caribbean Sea through the forecast
period, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean.  
Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic
through early next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh 
winds will prevail.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W, and a Significant Swell
Event continues to affect the waters over the central and 
eastern Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section above for
more information. 

High pressure dominates the entire Atlantic forecast waters with
a 1035 mb center located W of the Azores. Under the influence of 
this system, fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted across most 
the waters E of 55W with moderate to fresh winds W of 55W. A 
surface trough is analyzed from 30N64W to 24N66W. Seas of 8 to 12
ft in NW swell dominate the waters E of a line from 31N44W to 
20N67W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge will continue to 
dominate the forecast waters. Rough seas prevail over the SE 
waters. Areal coverage of these rough seas will gradually decrease
through Thu night, with a smaller area of rough seas continuing 
over portions of the SE waters through the end of the period. A 
weak front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat and move 
slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through
Sun night before dissipating. 

$$
ERA