000
AXNT20 KNHC 131751
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Dec 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N68W, to the Atlantic Ocean side coast
of Cuba near 22N78W. A surface trough continues from 22N78W in
Cuba, through 20N80W, to the western coast of Honduras. Expect for
the next 24 hours or so: strong NE winds, and rough seas, from 22N
northward from 68W westward, including in the Straits of Florida
and in the Atlantic Ocean exposures. Expect gale-force NE winds,
from 27N to 29N between 70W and 74W, on Saturday afternoon. The
gale-force winds are forecast to last for 12 hours or so.

A separate Atlantic Ocean NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is 
along 30N59W, to a 23N62W 1012 mb low pressure center, to the NE 
coast of Venezuela that is along 63W. Expect strong to near gale- 
force NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 20N northward between
35W and 69W. The winds and the seas that are accompanying this
separate surface trough are forecast to merge with the conditions
of the 31N68W-22N78W stationary front in 24 hours or so.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 870
nm to the east of the separate surface trough from 15N to 28N.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES...

The OUTLOOK section for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists
of: the persistence of or the threat of cyclonic near gale-force 
winds, or gale-force winds, in the marine zones IRVING and METEOR,
in the western sections of MADEIRA, in the western sections of 
CANARIAS, and in the northern sections of CAPE VERDE. The OUTLOOK 
period covers the next 24 hours that are after the initial 
36-hour long forecast period. Please, refer to the website: 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains 
of Liberia close to 05N09W, to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 
04N21W, to 04N36W. A surface trough is along 39W/41W from 05N to
10N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
the ITCZ to 07N between 24W and 34W, and from 05N to 11N between
35W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A 
surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, toward the 
southwestern corner of the area.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough seas, are from 22N to 
25N between 81W and 86W, including in the Straits of Florida.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are in the NE
quadrant of the Gulf. Fresh or slower surface anticyclonic wind
flow, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico. 

Strong high pressure over the SE United States will continue to 
force fresh to strong NE to E winds over the E Gulf of Mexico 
including the Florida Straits through Sun night. On Mon and Tue, 
conditions will be quiescent across the entire Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front reaches the Atlantic Ocean side coast of Cuba 
near 22N78W. A surface trough continues from 22N78W in Cuba, 
through 20N80W, to the western coast of Honduras. Expect for the 
next 24 hours or so: strong NE winds, and rough seas, from 16N to
23N between 80W and 87W. Strong NE winds, and moderate seas, are
from 15N to 20N between 73W and 79W. Strong NE winds, and moderate
to rough seas, are from 15N to 19N between 69W and 73W. Expect for
the next 30 hours or so: strong to near gale-force NE winds, and 
rough seas, are from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N southward from
84W westward. 

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, and 
beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward from
81W westward. 

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 13/1200 UTC, are: 0.91 in Trinidad; 0.09 in Guadeloupe; 0.08 in
St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; and 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto 
Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and 
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Strong ridging over the SE United States will continue to force 
fresh to strong NE winds across the central and W Caribbean 
including through the Windward Passage until Sat night. A broad 
surface trough extending across the Lesser Antilles this morning 
will gradually move westward over the next few days. This trough 
will cause the pressure gradient to relax across most of the 
Caribbean on Sun. Looking ahead on Mon and Tue, trades across the 
Caribbean should be moderate or weaker.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
gale-force winds for parts of the SW North Atlantic Ocean. Expect
gale-force NE winds, from 27N to 29N between 70W and 74W, on 
Saturday afternoon. The gale-force winds are forecast to last for 
12 hours or so. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section also,
for details about possible gale-force winds in some of the METEO-
FRANCE marine zones.

Expect for the next 12 hours or so: fresh or slower winds, and 
rough seas in NE to E swell, from 07N to 15N between 37W and 50W. 
Expect for Saturday morning: strong to near gale-force N to NE 
winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 19N northward between 
35W and 50W.

A stationary front that extends from just west of Bermuda to 
central Cuba should dissipate by tonight. A 1012 mb low near 
23N62W sits along a north-south oriented trough. As the low/trough
shifts westward, a large area of strong to near gale NE winds and
very rough seas will set up over all of the waters west of 65W 
during the weekend. As the pressure gradient tightens between the 
low/trough and high pressure over the US mid-Atlantic waters, peak
winds should reach gale force Sat and Sat night between the 
waters north of the Bahamas and Bermuda. During Sun and Mon, 
conditions will gradually improve, and by Tue winds will be 
reduced to fresh across the area. 

$$
mt/cl