000
AXNT20 KNHC 271644
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Mar 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1644 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into
the waters offshore of NE Florida by Sat morning, reach from 
Bermuda to West Palm Beach Sat night, and from 31N55W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands Sun night before dissipating Tue. Strong to 
near gale-force NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and 
rough to very rough seas will follow the front Sat through early 
Sun. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish in areal coverage 
through Thu. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and 
continues southwestward to 02S29W. The ITCZ extends from 02S29W 
to 02.5S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the 03S 
to 04N between 15W and 42W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf continues to 
extend a surface ridge across the remaining basin and provides
light to gentle variable winds over much of the E Gulf, except for
moderate NE to E winds in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan
Channel. Over the western half of the Gulf, low pressure over
Texas and northern Mexico tightens the gradient of pressure, and
support moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds. Seas are slight
to moderate basin-wide. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the 
northern Gulf through tonight. A trough over the Bay of Campeche 
will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western 
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through early 
next week. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf 
early Sat morning, reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and 
move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E 
winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over 
the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure 
gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east
winds across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida 
through the middle of the next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin 
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean, including within the Gulf of Venezuela. 
Seas are 7-9 ft with these winds, mainly offshore the coast of 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere across the basin. Otherwise, moisture inflow from the 
tropical Pacific continue to fuel scattered showers over the NW 
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras as well as the offshore 
waters of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with 
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. 
Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front 
moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night 
through the early part of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

A 1038 mb high over the north-central Atlantic near 46N32W 
extends a ridge across the subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface 
trough slightly weakens the ridge from 30N52W to 22N64W where it 
is generating scattered showers and tstms that extends between 55W
and 61W. Winds over the central and eastern subtropical waters 
are moderate to locally fresh from the NE to E and seas are mainly
moderate. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also in the Great 
Bahama Bank while moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along 
with moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the forecast 
waters through tonight supporting gentle to moderate easterly 
winds and moderate seas. A strong cold front will move into the 
waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach 
from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning before dissipating on 
Mon. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to
very rough seas will follow the front through Sun morning. Strong
high pressure in the wake of the front will cause fresh to strong
NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the 
forecast region likely through Tue.
 
$$
KRV