000
AXNT20 KNHC 161712
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf today, and reach from southwest Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and 
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected 
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW 
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW
to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 09N34W where it is
broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 06N44W to
05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N
and E of 23W, as well as from 04N to 10N between 25W and 45W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface 
trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and 
thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface 
trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate 
convection offshore Veracruz. Outside of convection, a cold front 
emerging off the TX coast is leading to fresh to strong N winds 
occurring over the nearshore waters between Corpus Christi and 
Galveston. Seas of 2-5 ft currently prevail across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, a cold front moving through coastal Texas will 
enter the far northwest Gulf later this morning, reach from 
southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then
stall and dissipate from the Florida Straits to the Bay of 
Campeche through the early part of next week. Gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the west- 
central Gulf tonight, and the southwest Gulf by Sat morning, and 
persist through Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough 
seas will follow the front elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong high 
pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake 
of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over 
the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting 
numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the 
seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades 
through the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of
the Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the 
Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela today, then mainly moderate 
to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough 
seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast 
elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a 
surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today. 
Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this 
convective activity. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 29N50W, and then is 
stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined
seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough
is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low
nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is
analyzed from 27N35W to 20N39W with a 1008 mb low along the trough
near 22N37W. These features are also driving fresh to strong SE
winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. Diffluence aloft
and east of this trough supports numerous showers and 
thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere 
across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident
across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas 
will shift eastward today, ahead of a strong cold front that will 
move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The 
front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early 
Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. 
Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will 
follow the front. 

$$
Adams