000
AXNT20 KNHC 111046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains mostly over the Africa Continent.
The ITCZ extends southwestward from 03N12W to 01N32W and to near
02N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 11W and 18W and within 120 nm
south of the ITCZ between 13W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W and 36W and within
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 35W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad ridging stretches from the southeastern U.S. southwestward 
to central Texas. The related gradient is allowing for mostly 
moderate to fresh east winds across just about the entire 
basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft east of 90W and south of 26N and 4 to 6
ft elsewhere, except for slightly lower seas of 3 to 5 ft in the 
SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh east winds should persist 
through tonight. The high pressure will strengthen some through 
late Sun night as it shifts eastward over the western Atlantic 
through early next week before it weakens into midweek. A ridge 
will stretch west-southwestward from the high to across the 
northern Gulf through the period. A tightening pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure to its southeast associated 
with a frontal boundary will funnel pulsing fresh to strong east 
winds through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern 
Gulf starting on Mon. Seas across the basin will be at a mostly 
moderate state, except, at times, reaching a rough state in the 
Straits of Florida beginning on Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The present synoptic weather pattern, with a frontal system over 
the western Atlantic and building high pressure behind it is 
keeping fresh to strong trades confined to the south-central
section of the sea, namely south of about 16N and between 70W and
78W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft. Fresh northeast winds 
have recently develop in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere south of 17N 
east of 85W, and gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are 
elsewhere in the western section of the basin. Seas of 4 to 6 ft 
are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except north of 18N and 
east of 85W where slightly lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are found.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from 
the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and 
increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the 
south- central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next 
week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will 
prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of 
Hispaniola starting tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from low pressure of 1011 mb 
north of the area near 33N61W to 31N61W to 28N65W and to the
eastern tip of Cuba. Fresh to strong south winds are east of the
front to near 52W and north of 28N. Seas with these winds are in
the range of 8 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
within about 120 nm east of the front north of 24N. A trough 
is analyzed from near 19N53W to 12N53W. Isolated showers are 
possible near this trough.

Mostly fresh northeast winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident 
behind the cold front, except seas in the Bahamas are 5 to 7 ft. 
Winds elsewhere east of the front are moderate to fresh in speeds,
and east to southeast in direction to near 40W along with seas of 
7 to 9 ft in long-period east swell. East of 40W, east winds of 
fresh speeds are present also with seas of 7 to 9 ft in long- 
period northeast swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the 
southeastern U.S. is building southward over the western Atlantic
behind the above described cold front. The pressure gradient 
between the high pressure and the front will maintain mostly 
fresh northeast winds west of the front through Sun. Winds become 
locally strong starting Sun night as the high pressure strengthens
some. The winds then diminish back to mostly fresh speeds 
starting Tue south of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with an 
associated ridge near 31N. Rough seas from large NE swell will 
linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the 
Bahamas. 

$$
Aguirre