000
AXNT20 KNHC 251658
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will 
continue to develop across the western and central offshore zones 
today through this evening as strong high pressure builds 
southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE 
of the central Bahamas along a stationary front extending from 31N56W to 
the NW Bahamas near 27N77W to the Florida Straits. This setup is 
inducing widespread strong to gale- force NE to E winds and very 
rough seas building to 20 ft. Gale- force winds to 40 kt prevail north
of 27N between 61.5N and 72.5W according to the latest wind- 
derived satellite. Strong to gale winds north of 27N between 61W 
and 80W will prevail today through early Mon morning. The portion
of the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward 
tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba
Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed 
night. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift 
slowly eastward and into the NW Atlantic during this time, and 
maintain fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE 
swell to the north of the front through the period. Mariners are 
urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and 
take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. 

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. 

Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper level 
trough over Florida, the NW Caribbean and the Bahamas combined 
with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain
over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Today, model guidance 
indicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander 
northward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by 
abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to 
north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and 
Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall 
will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash 
flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
16N17W southwestward to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 
11N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 25N 
and east of 40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong ridge extends over most of the eastern United States and
into the central Gulf, supporting fresh to strong winds east of
90W along with seas 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds 
prevail along seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and a stationary front across the NW Bahamas and into the
eastern Florida Straits will maintain fresh to strong NE winds 
and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida 
Straits, through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther
east through the early part of the upcoming week.

A broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extends southward
across E Cuba to a 1010 mb low NE of Jamaica near 19.5N76W. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is along and ahead of this
low under an area of upper level diffluence that covers 
Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Gust to gale force winds and rough
seas are likely within this area of convection between eastern 
Cuba and Jamaica and south of Hispaniola between 69W and 72.5W. 
Winds over the NW and portions of SW Caribbean are moderate to 
fresh from the N while ENE winds of the same speeds are E of 74W. 
Seas over these regions are moderate and slight between 74W and 
78W where winds are light to gentle and variable due to the low 
pressure. 

For the forecast, a middle to upper level trough over Florida, 
the Bahamas and NW Caribbean will shift very slowly eastward 
through Tue and support scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. 
Meanwhile, a broad surface trough over the central Bahamas 
extending southward across E Cuba to a 1010 mb low N of Jamaica 
near 19.5N76.5W, continuing to the SW Caribbean, will drift 
eastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S.
will continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of 
America through early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N 
winds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the 
trough through late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across
the Yucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, 
moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds by Mon evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy
rainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos 
Islands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola.

A stationary front extends from 31N56W to the NW Bahamas near 
27N77W to the Florida Straits. Along the front, a 1010 mb low
pressure is near 28.5N66W. A surface trough then extends 
southward from this low to Hispaniola adjacent waters. These 
features are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 20N
and between 58W and 74W. Widespread strong to gale-force winds 
and rough seas are north of the front and along the trough or 
across many of the offshores N of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores ridge
dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, providing 
mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for 
fresh to strong winds funneling through the Canary Islands and 
west of Cape Verde where rough seas are ongoing.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to gale-force NE to E winds 
will continue through early tonight, across the western and 
central offshore zones, along and N of a stationary front 
extending from 31N56W to the NW Bahamas near 27N77W to the Florida
Straits. Very rough seas to 20 ft are expected. The portion of 
the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward tonight 
through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and
Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed night. Strong
high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward 
and into the NW Atlantic during this time, and maintain fresh to 
strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north
of the front through the period. Mariners are urged to remain 
alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary
precautions to avoid these affected areas. 

$$
KRV