000
AXNT20 KNHC 271055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 67W, south of 16N, moving west 
at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted over water at 
this time near this wave. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 84W, S of 
16N, extending across Costa Rica, moving west near 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is over the offshore waters of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to the remnant low of 
Gonzalo near 20N24W then SW to 10N30W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N40W to 12N56W to 11N62W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 17N between 11W and 28W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 52W 
and 62W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1015 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf offshore of the 
Florida-Alabama border. Over the southern Gulf, the remnants of a
former front are analyzed as a surface trough that extends from
the Yucatan Channel to 24N90W to N of Tampico, Mexico near 23N97W.
Otherwise, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche,
generating scattered to isolated showers S of 20N. Winds are light
to gentle basin-wide while seas are slight.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas, will prevail through today. Winds and seas will gradually 
increase to gentle to moderate speeds Mon, and to moderate to 
fresh speeds Tue night through Thu night. Slight seas basin-wide 
will build to moderate Wed night through Thu following the wind 
increase. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient, due to the passage of a cold front N 
of the region, is translating to gentle to moderate trades over the
eastern and central basin, and light to gentle winds elsewhere,
except moderate in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3 to 5 ft. 
Moderate winds follow the tropical wave and extend into the 
Windward Islands. Seas are moderate to 4 ft basin-wide, except
slight in the NW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the region will 
support gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean through Mon
night. High pressure will build E of the Bahamas on Tue, which 
will result in trades reaching moderate to fresh speeds basin- 
wide. Seas will be slight to moderate through the period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is just W of Bermuda extending from 31N66W to the
central Bahamas where it stalls to central Cuba and into the NW
Caribbean near 21N84W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms continue
to affect the offshore waters ahead and along the front to 63W.
Aside from the shower activity, moderate to fresh SW winds are
also ahead of the boundary along with rough seas to 9 ft.  

Farther east, a pre-frontal trough extends from 30N56W to 26N58W
and is supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 27N between 53W
and 57W. Over the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression Fay is
located near 29.2N 43.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving south at 3 
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Rough seas to 10 ft are 
within 60 nm W semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is from 27N to 29N between 42W and 47W.

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo are centered near 
20N24W with estimated minimum central pressure of 1009 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 20N E of 24W. The remnant 
low of Gonzalo will continue to move N-NW and away from the Cabo 
Verde Islands during the next few days, while gradually weakening.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba later this morning before stalling 
and dissipating by Mon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected to continue ahead of the front along the frontal 
boundary. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected east of the 
front through tonight before diminishing Mon. Otherwise, rough 
seas behind the front will gradually subside today.

$$
Ramos