000
AXNT20 KNHC 091635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1635 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: 
A strong cold front is moving over the NW Gulf this morning. The
front will continue to move quickly SE through the basin and exit
by Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough
seas can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and
very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon
night. Gale force winds are forecast to begin at 10/1200 UTC and
end 11/03 UTC. Peak seas off Veracruz are forecast to build to 15 
ft by Mon evening. Otherwise, there is a potential for gust to 
gale force winds for the NW Gulf beginning later this morning and 
continuing through Mon morning. Conditions will improve basin- 
wide by Tue evening. For more information, please see the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America:
A shearline is expected to form early on Mon over the NW Caribbean
Sea and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala,
Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south on
Monday, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in 
enhanced moisture convergence. A potent cold front will then 
arrive in Guatemala, Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning, 
after which it will become stationary and linger across the region
through Thursday. Significant rainfall over the course of several
days will be possible as a result, and will raise concerns for 
life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information 
was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction 
Center. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 10N15W and continues
southwestward to near 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 17N18W to 
08N32W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
from 05N to 12N between the coast of Africa and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Pecan Island, Louisiana to Loyola 
Beach, Texas. Isolated moderate convection is found along the 
front. An upper level trough is supporting a cluster of moderate 
convection from 27N to 29N, and west of 86W. Elsewhere, ridging 
extends over the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and 
slight seas. 
 
For the forecast, a strong cold front has moved into the NW Gulf 
this morning and will race SE through the basin, exiting by Mon 
evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas 
can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very 
rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon night. 
There is a potential for wind gusts gusts to gale force winds for 
the NW Gulf beginning later this morning and continuing through 
Mon morning. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting 
scattered moderate convection, across the offshore waters of 
Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. A surface trough is 
moving across the E Caribbean and through the Mona Passage along 
with scattered moderate convection. Otherwise, a prevalent ridge 
extending across the northern basin continues to tighten the 
gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean, thus supporting
the continuation of fresh trades and moderate seas to 8 ft in 
these regions. Moderate or weaker trades are ongoing in the NW 
basin with slight seas.

For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are 
expected in the south- central Caribbean through Mon night. Rough 
seas in east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the 
Lesser Antilles will gradually subside into Tue morning. A strong 
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters Mon afternoon, 
bringing strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas in its 
wake. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras 
late Tue and gradually weaken through Wed evening. Aside from the 
strong winds and seas, the front will support the development of 
heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over Central America and adjacent
waters through Thu. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing offshore NE and
central Florida. A surface trough is supporting isolated showers 
north of 29N between 62W and 65W. The remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High that is 
anchored by a 1030 mb high near 35N36W. East of 55W, winds are 
gentle to moderate, with seas 3 to 6 ft. West of 55W and south of 
28N, moderate to fresh winds prevail along with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds 
developing offshore of NE Florida this morning will reach fresh to
strong speeds tonight into Mon ahead of a strong cold front that 
will push off the SE U.S. tonight. The front will progress SE and 
reach from Bermuda to E Cuba Tue afternoon, with the southern 
portion of the front stalling from 27N65W to E Cuba Tue evening 
into Wed. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas 
are expected behind the front Mon afternoon into Tue night. Winds 
then will gradually diminish through Wed. 

$$
KRV