000
AXNT20 KNHC 142203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Mar 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to 
enter the NW Gulf by Sun night. As the front moves across the 
basin through early next week, gale- force NW winds will develop 
in the wake of the front, mainly W of 90W. Peak sustained winds of
35 to 45 kt, with gusts to storm- force and very rough seas of up
to 15 ft, can be expected offshore of Veracruz. These conditions 
will dissipate by late Mon.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues 
from that point to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
along and within 150 nm on either side of these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak ridging extends across the northern Gulf. Moderate S winds
and 3-4 seas are noted over the far western Gulf, with gentle
breezes and 1-2 ft seas elsewhere. Clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms continue to be active just north of the Yucatan 
Channel, along a remnant boundary that persists over the area. 
Generally fair weather is noted elsewhere across the basin. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sun 
night, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and 
slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. 
Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow the 
front. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas will be 
possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico
on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Tampico and Veracruz may
attain gusts to storm-force. In the wake of the front, high 
pressure will build across the region into midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia is supporting pulsing 
fresh to strong trades off Colombia with seas to 8 ft. Moderate 
to fresh E trade winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere E of 
80W, while gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas are noted W 
of 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure will build westward across the west
and central Atlantic on Sun, with the resulting pressure gradient
leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending 
from the waters E of the Lesser Antilles on Sun to the eastern 
and central Caribbean, including the passages on Mon. The pressure
gradient will weaken by Tue as a cold front approaches the NW 
Caribbean.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough
extending from Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Much of the 
remaining Atlantic is under the influence of ridging from the 1035
mb Azores high. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-10 ft prevail
across much of the waters east of 60W. Moderate to fresh trades 
and moderate seas prevail west of 60W and south of 25N. Gentle to
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build 
toward the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend before it 
will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold
front. The front will move off the U.S. southeastern coast Mon 
evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N70W to the central 
Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly
winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters 
starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. Fresh to strong 
northwest winds will follow the front through Tue. To the south, 
rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters 
E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during 
midweek. 

$$
Christensen