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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 190543

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Northeast gale-force winds are presently near the coast of 
Colombia from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, with seas to 10 ft. 
The gale is forecast to end on 19/1500 UTC. Thereafter, a surface
low centered northeast of the Bahamas will weaken the ridge over 
the western Atlantic and allow the nocturnal gale-force winds to 
diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website, for more details.

....Atlantic Gale Warning...

On 20/1800 UTC a cold front is forecast to be over the W Atlantic
from 31N61W to a 1012 mb low near 29N71W to 25N74W to 23N79W. A
gale with NE to E winds are forecast N of 30N between 65W and 71W,
with seas 11 to 17 ft. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W 
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03S30W to the coast 
of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from
00N-03S between 10W-15W, and from 01S-06S between 27W-32W.  


As of 19/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of 
Florida near 24N80W to 23N88W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of
the front. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over the
E Gulf of Mexico and Florida, E of 90W and N of 25N. 20-30 kt
N to NE winds are N of the front. In the upper levels, a trough is
over the W Gulf with axis along 92W. Upper level diffluence E of
the wave axis is enhancing the convection over the E Gulf. 

Strong NE winds will cover almost the entire Gulf of Mexico on 
Tuesday, then the far eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday as the 
front exits the southeast Gulf. Winds could reach near gale-force
over parts of the southeast Gulf, as a weak low pressure center 
moves along the front Tuesday. A new surface ridge will build 
south across the area Wed through Fri night.


A gale is presently along the coast of N Colombia. The remainder
of the southern Caribbean S of 18N has 10-30 kt trade winds. The
NW Caribbean has 5-10 kt southerly winds, S of the Gulf of Mexico
cold front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted inland over N Colombia. The Caribbean Sea is void of
convection. Some scattered showers are advecting to the Leeward
Islands and northern Windward Islands from the tropical Atlantic.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along
76W. Very strong subsidence is over the Caribbean suppressing

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support 
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean 
Sea through early Wed, before the high moves E and winds diminish 
for the remainder of the week. Gale force NE winds will blow along
the coast of Colombia until mid morning Tue, then fresh to strong
winds are expected along the coast of Colombia through Sat night.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the 
remainder of the area through Sat night. 


A 1016 mb surface low is centered over the W Atlantic near 
29N71W, with a cold front extending from the low to the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W. A stationary front extends E from the low to
beyond 31N63W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the frontal
system. A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
27N54W. A 1016 mb surface low is centered over the e Atlantic  
near 26N39W, with a trough extending S from the low to 20N40W. 
Scattered showers prevail within 240 nm NE of the low. Surface 
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 
1036 mb high centered north of the area near 42N20W.

The frontal boundary will shift slowly SE through Wed to 
eventually extend from 31N57W to eastern Cuba by Thu afternoon in
response to new low pres developing and moving NE away from the 
Bahamas along the front. As the low develops gale force winds will
be possible N of 30N between 65W and 71W Wed evening.

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