592 
AXNT20 KNHC 232319
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of 
Africa near 10N15W to 04N20W and to 01N26.5W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to south of the Equator near 28W and continues to 
04S35W and northwestward to 02S43W to the Equator at 50W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is south of the monsoon trough
from 00N to 05N between 10W-19W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 30 nm of the trough between 25W-29W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An mid to upper level trough extends from the southeastern U.S. 
southwestward to 26N88W and to the Yucatan Peninsula. An amplifying
upper-level shortwave is passing through southeastern Gulf.
Upper-level dynamics associated with the trough is supporting 
an area of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern
Gulf south of 26N between 82W and 86W moving generally east-southeastward,
and newly developed shower and thunderstorm activity over the south-
central Gulf from 23N to 25N between 87W and 90W. This activity 
is accompanied by heavy rain reducing visibility and gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. The strongest cells appear to be 
approaching the northwest portion of Cuba. Otherwise, relatively 
weak high pressure is over the eastern and central Gulf portions.
The related gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast
winds over the eastern part of the basin, and gentle to moderate
southeast winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft 
over the eastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the remainder of the 
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate 
seas basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next 
week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a 
diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the 
evenings. The aforementioned area of numerous showers and 
thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf will continue east-
southeastward through early Fri. The activity over the south-
central Gulf will move to the southeast to south into early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a
stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Isolated
showers are near the trough, however, clusters of moderate 
convection are north of 20N west of 82W. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are in the lee of Cuba and
near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft 
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will 
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal 
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, 
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This 
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure 
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in 
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
across the entire basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of
the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to
25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and 
to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends 
from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft 
seas are west of the front to near 55W and north of 26N. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present north
of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to moderate NE to 
SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly 
stationary just N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The 
remnant moisture associated with the frontal boundary will lift 
northward as a trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop 
along the trough axis east of the Bahamas on Sun. This will 
support gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas 
across most of the forecast area through the weekend. The 
exception will be over the northeast waters, where fresh to 
locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are expected 
beginning on Fri as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun. 

$$
Aguirre