000
AXNT20 KNHC 160513
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure located inland near the Texas/Mexico border continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America 
today, and environmental conditions there are expected to be 
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical 
storm later today or on Wednesday. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and 
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods 
of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce
widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. 
Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions 
of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or 
Warnings could be required later today. Additional information on 
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.

This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 04N to 11N AND between 17W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 03N to 09N and between 33W and 54W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 13N and between 55W and 64W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
south of 13N and between 69W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 04N43W and then from 04N45W to 
04N51W. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details 
on the convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of
America.

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms affecting NE Mexico, southern Texas and nearshore
waters. The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of
the subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and
moderate seas, west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it 
is inland across northeastern Mexico, and will move slowly 
N to NE during the next couple of days. Low pressure is expected 
to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly re- 
emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time 
environmental conditions may be marginally conducive for the 
formation of a short-lived tropical storm Wed into Thu. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW Gulf Tue through
Thu. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the area will
sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf 
early Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over
the eastern Gulf. Winds begin to diminish Fri as high pressure 
settles in over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are seen south of eastern Cuba and off western
Jamaica. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical 
ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern 
South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough
seas in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest 
seas are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes
and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic
westward along 27N and across S Florida. The pressure gradient
across the region will sustain a large area of fresh to strong 
trade winds in the south-central basin through the forecast 
period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of 
Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in 
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale Wed
night, Thu night and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become SE at 
fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 67W and 75W. Moderate to
fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and
west of 65W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds 
and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the 
far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are 
present north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from 1022 mb
high pressure near 26N57W westward along 27N and across S 
Florida, and will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken 
Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing 
some in coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh SW winds 
offshore of northeast Florida to near 74W are occurring ahead of a
surface trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 67W 
through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the 
southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore late Fri 
night and stall offshore northeast Florida Sat and Sat night. 
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening 
across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. 

$$
Delgado