372 
AXNT20 KNHC 052243
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jul 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 28W S of 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern half of
the wave S of 10N. 

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W and S of 18N, moving W at 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the 
southern half of the wave S of 10N.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 02-17N, moving W at 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the 
southern half of the wave S of 10N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W, south of 19N, moving W at 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N19W. 
The ITCZ continues from that point between the tropical waves to 
08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on 
either side of the ITCZ and W of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and 
across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a 
weak trough is positioned over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern 
is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. 
Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are 
generally 1-3 ft across the basin. Scattered moderate convection 
is active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an upper trough 
that extends over the Mississippi River valley. 

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather 
pattern across the Gulf region as a ridge continues to dominate 
the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast over the western 
Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The 
exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to strong speeds 
off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Fri. These 
winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface 
trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-wide. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the
western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
across the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of
Honduras, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and 
northwest Venezuela. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted 
elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest 
Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western 
Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. 
Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade
wind flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off 
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge
north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the 
central Caribbean through Fri night. The aerial extent of these 
winds will increase tonight into Mon as the Atlantic ridge 
continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds are
expected to extend across most of the east and central Caribbean.
Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from tonight through Fri. 
Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the 
basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to 
SE winds are forecast at night tonight through Tue. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is
anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 28N38W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed 
from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis,
and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas east 
and south of the ridge axis. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
build westward across central Florida into the eastern Gulf of 
America early this week. This pattern will support moderate to 
fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds 
elsewhere. Strong winds, with moderate to rough seas, are 
expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the
Windward Passage, from tonight through Fri.

$$
ERA