958 
AXNT20 KNHC 030423
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 41W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis mainly S of
12N.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 
74W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues 
southwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 08N35W,
then resumes from 09N44W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 05N to 15N between 44W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf region.
Convection is currently flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula, and
also along the coast of Mexico south of Tampico. A surface trough
is analyzed over the central Gulf and runs from 29N90W to a 1007 
mb low pres near 19N95W. The pressure gradient between this trough
and high pressure located over the western Atlantic is allowing 
for mostly fresh east to southeast winds to exist across the 
central and eastern Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds are 
occurring west of the trough axis. Seas are generally moderate, 
except in the Bay of Campeche where seas in the 1 to 3 ft range 
are noted.

For the forecast, the upper-level low will sustain scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the eastern and 
central Gulf through the weekend. A moderate pressure gradient 
between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower 
pressures in the Gulf will support moderate to locally strong SE 
winds over much of the eastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak 
cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, 
and stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by 
late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the
weekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in 
the north-central Gulf. The front will remain stationary into 
midweek. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front 
beginning Tue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as strong 
high pressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate are 
generally expected across the basin through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low currently over the Bay of Campeche is pulling 
up abundant deep tropical moisture across the far western 
Caribbean and northern Central America where scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are present. Moderate to fresh easterly trade 
winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. Showers
and thunderstorms are seen over parts of the Greater Antilles. A 
diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective 
activity. 

For the forecast, the upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche 
and abundant deep tropical moisture will support scattered shower 
and thunderstorm activity into Sat morning across the far western 
Caribbean. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
north of the Caribbean, and relatively lower pressure in northern 
South America will bring fresh to locally strong trades over the 
south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat 
night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the 
Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through
early next week leading to gentle to moderate trades across the 
basin. Trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela Mon night.

Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are 
possible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti 
and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen 
toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island
by Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects 
as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will likely increase the chances of rain in the area. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough located 
several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda from 28N64W to 20N69W.
Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with trough
axis, with moderate NE to E winds N of 25N and W of the trough 
axis to 65W. To the E, another trough is analyzed from 31N51W to 
27N61W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough.

The remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a 
ridge, with high pressure centers just N of the area. Moderate to
fresh E winds are observed just offshore Hispaniola, and between 
eastern Cuba and the Bahamas with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere 
moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W 
through at least Sat. Meanwhile, the combination of a trough SE of
Bermuda and a broad upper-level trough digging southward will 
continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through 
the weekend north of about 22N and east of 70W. Trades just north 
of Hispaniola will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds 
tonight and on Sat night. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions 
are expected through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach 
the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and stall. Strong high 
pressure will nudge southward behind the front with the resultant 
pressure gradient between it and the front likely to induce strong
NE winds, with potential to near gale force, and along with 
building seas offshore NE Florida.  

$$
ERA