000
AXNT20 KNHC 261709
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING
for the Canarias Offshore Zone. N to NE winds to Force 8 will
continue between the Canary Islands through at least 27/1200 UTC.
Seas currently range from 12-14 ft, and will build to 12-15 ft
through the warning period. For more information, please see the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas
remain 8-11 ft across all central and eastern Atlantic waters 
east of 60W, in mixed NW and NE swell. Over the next couple of
days, seas will build to 12-15 ft across the eastern Atlantic,
mainly east of 45W, as new NW swell propagates from the GALE
WARNING near the Canary Islands. Widespread fresh to strong trade
winds, with surges to near-gale force, will sustain 8-11 ft seas 
elsewhere, as strong subtropical high pressure maintains a tight
pressure gradient across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge axis extending from the subtropical Atlantic high pressure
extends across the Gulf waters, and provides for moderate to
locally fresh SE to S winds across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft
across the basin, with highest seas in the NW Gulf where fetch is
maximized under this wind pattern.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly return flow across 
the NW, central and SW portions of the Gulf will gradually 
diminish into this evening ahead of the next cold front forecast 
to enter the NW Gulf early Fri. This cold front is expected to 
sink slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri 
through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the 
Gulf will build back across the basin Sun and Mon. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The influence of the strong subtropical ridge centered in the 
Atlantic Ocean currently supports pusling strong trades in the 
south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, with 8-9 ft 
seas. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh trades in remaining waters. Seas are 4-7
ft. Seas are locally higher, to 8-9 ft, within Atlantic Passage
between the Lesser Antilles and the Mona Passage, due to arriving
swell from the tropical Atlantic. 

For the forecast, the subtropical high will shift NE across the 
Atlantic through early Sat and maintain a broad ridge across the 
central and western Atlantic, bringing a return to fresh to strong
trades across the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in 
mixed swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic through early 
next week. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
GALE WARNING EAST OF 35W and a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the 
central and eastern Atlantic.

The previously analyzed stationary front has dissipated in the W
Atlantic, though some scattered showers remain near the central
Bahamas. Outside of the area described in the SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT which includes all of the central and eastern Atlantic, 
trades are moderate or weaker and seas are generally 4-7 ft. These
conditions prevail across the western Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, swell across the most of the eastern
offshore zones will gradually subside through Thu night, with 
seas over the SE waters expected to continue at 8 ft and higher in
easterly trade wind swell through the end of the period. A weak 
front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat and move slowly 
southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun 
night before dissipating.

$$
Mahoney