000
AXNT20 KNHC 202358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu May 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 16N southward
into northern Venezuela, and moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen over the northwestern Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off near the coastal border
of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to near 
06N23W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N23W to near the coastal
border of French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 05N west of 20W,
and also up to 190 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A thermal trough across the spine of Florida is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the 
southwestern coast of Florida. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge 
across the northern Gulf is supporting mainly gentle southeasterly
winds with 2 to 4 ft seas for most of the Gulf, except moderate 
to locally fresh NE winds just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the ridge will generally maintain a gentle to 
moderate E to SE wind flow across the Gulf through the weekend, 
with the exception of winds pulsing to fresh to strong off the
northern Yucatan Peninsula from the late afternoons and into the 
night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very 
moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled 
weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf for the next few days.
Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be 
prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this 
activity. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High and the 
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds at the 
south-central basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras into next week.
Seas at 7 to 10 ft are present at the central basin, while 4 to 6
ft are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 3
to 5 ft seas are evident near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to
fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to 
strong trades along with rough seas over the south-central basin 
through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each 
evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will 
remain elsewhere through into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is coupling with an upper-level low to produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 23N between
71W and 76W. A cold front curves southwestward from the near the
Azores across 30N32W to northeast of the Leeward Islands at
26N58W. Patchy showers are seen along and up to 80 nm south of
this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 23N west
of 65W. Otherwise, a 1025 Bermuda High is supporting gentle winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells north of 24N
between 35W and 65W. To the south from 06N to 24N/23N between 35W
and 65W/Lesser Antilles, including the southeast Bahamas, 
moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of
4 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and 4
3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin
west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
and upper-level low will continue to produce scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters between the 
Bahamas and 70W as well as north of 27N between 72W and 76W 
through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain 
strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. SE winds 
will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola in the afternoons 
and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, the large dome
of Bermuda High will maintain rather quite marine conditions 
through the period.

$$

Chan