000
AXNT20 KNHC 061040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure area, 
located near 26N65W, is producing fresh to near gale-force NE to E
winds in the north semicircle, extending past 30N and between 52W
and 70W per recent scatterometer satellite data. Altimeter data 
and Sofar buoy data show seas of 8 to 14 ft within these winds. 
Scattere moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted in 
the same region while numerous moderate to strong convection is 
from 18N to 25N between 55W and 61W. This system could acquire 
some subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days 
while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central 
subtropical Atlantic. By late this weekend, upper-level winds are 
forecast to become unfavorable for further development. While a 
new non-tropical low could form from the remnants of the current 
low early next week, environmental conditions are unlikely to 
support significant development. Regardless, gale-force winds are 
forecast over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic from Sat 
morning through the rest of the weekend. Please read the latest 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:

https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical
weather outlook at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOEP.html
for more details.

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Middle-level 
troughing over the SW Caribbean and upper level divergence over 
Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific will 
interact with enhanced low-level moisture and onshore flow south 
of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor 
heavy precipitation developing across Central America through at 
least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, which may lead to life-threatening 
flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather 
agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to
08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 07N54W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 13N between 18W and 41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 
30N86W and continues southwestward to 25N91W. Scattered moderate 
convection is across coastal Texas waters. Otherwise, surface 
ridging over the Gulf along a weak pressure gradient support 
mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas basin-wide.

For the forecast, the stalled frontal boundary from the Florida
panhandle to the NW Gulf will start to push southward as a cold
front across the Gulf waters today. Near gale NW winds are 
expected in the SW Gulf Sun night and Mon west of the front. 
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere west of the front 
on Sun through early next week as it moves east across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered over the northwestern Caribbean 
offshore eastern Honduras with scattered heavy showers and tstms 
extending from 17N to 19N between 81W and 85W. Scattered showers 
are also occuring offshore southern Jamaica. Over the NW Caribbean
and NW of the low, gentle to moderate NNE winds are present. 
Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to 
moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to
moderate seas, through early next week. Winds will strengthen
over the central Caribbean by Tuesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning and the potential for subtropical development of this 
system (Invest AL94).

Elsewhere, a cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N22W 
and extends southwestward to 26N30W, then continues as staionary
to 25N54W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring south
and east of the front.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pres will drift today then 
slowly move east-northeastward during the weekend. An area of 
strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking 
near 15 ft, prevails north of the low and will expand eastward 
through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. 
Elsewhere, a weakening cold front will move across the waters 
between Florida and 75W today, then dissipate by Sat.

$$
ERA