000
AXNT20 KNHC 010400
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Nov 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 13N20W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 
07N35W and then to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is 
depicted within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE to E winds
across the northeast Gulf, south of 1032 mb over Virginia. A 
concurrent altimeter indicated 4-6 ft seas in northeast Gulf as
well. Scattered showers and tstms are noted over the eastern 
Gulf due to a combination of abundant Atlantic moisture,
convergentwinds and divergent flow aloft. Light to gentle 
breezes and 2-4 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient related to the strong 
high pressure ridging southward along the southeastern U.S. 
seaboard will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to east winds 
and moderate seas across the north-central and NE Gulf through Mon
night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue as a warm 
front develops over the NE Gulf. The warm front will slowly move 
northeastward away from the area Tue through Wed as the cold front
slowly moves eastward across the Gulf, providing for areas of 
moderate winds and seas. The cold front will then weaken over the 
eastern Gulf Thu and Thu night while weak high pressure then 
builds over the western Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the U.S. and 
the western Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia supports 
fresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south- central 
Caribbean offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 3 to 6 
ft seas prevail across the remainder of the central and eastern 
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are elsewhere.
Divergent flow aloft on the eastern side of an upper low north of
Colombia is supporting scattered moderate convection over the 
central and eastern Caribbean. 
  
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and moderate to rough seas, will continue
through Mon, with some areas of strong winds near the coast of
Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds and seas are expected to
diminish basin-wide late Mon through Thu as broad low pressure
with a relaxed pressure gradient gradually develops and then
persists across the Atlantic NE of the Bahamas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a cold
front reaching from 31N51W to 25N63W, and along a dissipating
stationary front into the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of the front.
Farther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
along a cold front from 1012 mb low pressure west of Madeira near
33N21W to 26N21W and continues as a stationary front to 21N30W.
Moderate N winds and moderate N swell of 6 to 9 ft follow the 
front north of 23N between 20W and 40W. Gentle to moderate winds 
and 4 to 6 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere across the
Atlantic south of 31N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken through 
Sun while it moves southeastward as high pressure in its wake 
builds across the western Atlantic. To the south of the high, 
mariners can expect widespread areas of fresh to locally strong 
northeast to east winds, and rough seas to near 11 feet from Mon 
night and into Tue. The front is forecast to become nearly 
stationary near 25N Sun through Mon night. A warm front will 
develop over the NE Gulf Tue, and move northeastward across the SW
north Atlantic Wed. As the high pressure off of the U.S. east 
coast gradually shifts east, a weakening cold front will approach 
from the eastern Gulf Thu, then move offshore of Florida late Thu 
night. 

$$
Christensen