000
AXNT20 KNHC 062327
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Mar 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh 
to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern 
Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to 
gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Seas of 
8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N20W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00S50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 17W 
and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 
moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, including the 
Straits of Florida. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. A 
surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan Peninsula. A few
showers and thunderstorms are near SE Louisiana. Similar 
convective activity is noted over northern Florida and just W of
Tampa Bay.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward 
from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek 
next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low 
pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and strong near 
the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings. Seas 
will be slight to moderate through Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, with the 
strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt in the vicinity of Cabo Beata,
Dominican Republic. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range within these
wind speeds. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted in 
the lee of central Cuba, and also from 14N to 17N between 78W and
82W. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between
a 1029 mb high pressure located in the vicinity of Bermuda and 
the Colombian/Panamanian low. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping
to induce convection over parts of Cuba, Jamaica and the NW Caribbean,
particularly S of 18N and W of 83W, including NE Honduras. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Tue. Winds offshore
of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight
hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse
in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Sun night, then
moderate to fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade-wind swell from
the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser
Antilles through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1031 mb 
high pressure located E of the Azores, and a 1029 mb high pressure
situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. Under the influence of this
ridge, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are observed N of
25N and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands, with the strongest
winds of 25 to 30 kt between islands. Similar wind speeds are
seen per scatterometer data offshore Mauritania and Western Sahara
with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong trades are blowing
S of 25N and E of 70W along the southern periphery of the ridge.
Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong
speeds north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. 
Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the 
central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker 
winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. 

$$
GR