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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 182314

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.



High pressure north of the Caribbean will continue to induce
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea near the 
coast of Colombia. These winds are forecast to reach gale force 
during the night time hours tonight and Saturday night.


A strong cold front is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico by Saturday morning, and it should move quickly
southeastward. The front is expected to clear the entire Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday morning. Strong northerly winds, which are
forecast to reach gale force, are expected behind the front 
midday Saturday through Saturday night over the western Gulf of 


Southerly winds are expected to increase over portions of the 
western Atlantic Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold front that 
will be moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly and
southwesterly winds are forecast to reach gale force east of
northern Florida and Georgia prior to and along with the cold 
front by early Sunday morning. These gales will migrate eastward 
into Sunday night.

For additional information on all of these warning areas, please 
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers 


The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia and Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 
that point to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. 
Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is seen from 00N-04N
between 12W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
within 210 nm north and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between


A weak surface trough marked by a line of low-level clouds extends
across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure and
fair weather cover the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over the
northwestern Gulf, fresh to locally strong southerly winds are now
being observed and will continue to increase to strong this
evening ahead of a low pressure system currently over the south-
central United States. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed north of 27.5N between 93W-96W.

A strong cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico
Saturday morning and move across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday and
Saturday night. Gale force winds are forecast to occur behind the
front over the western Gulf. See above for more details.


Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Only typical
patches of low clouds and some embedded isolated showers exist 
across eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the waters near the Cayman
Islands. The trade winds are strongest near the coast of 
Colombia, and they are expected to reach gale force during the 
night time hours tonight and Saturday night. See above for more 
details. Otherwise, winds are light to moderate across the 
remainder of the area.


A series of troughs exist across the subtropical Atlantic. The
weakest one of the group lies north of the northwestern Bahamas
from 28N79W to 31N75W, and this feature is only producing 
disorganized cloudiness near its axis. Another trough lies to the
east of the central Bahamas from 22N73W to 29N71W, with a few 
showers possible east of the trough axis from 23N-29N between
68W-72W. A weak 1018 mb surface low lies over the central 
Atlantic near 26N60W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms 
noted from 26N-29N between 57W-60W. More significant showers and 
thunderstorms are located farther east, north of 24N between
44W-49W, primarily associated with an upper-level trough. High 
pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic supported by a 1031 mb
high near 34N27W.

The big weather event this weekend is expected to be associated
with a strong cold front that is forecast to move over the western
Atlantic on Sunday. Gale-force winds are forecast ahead of and
along with this boundary. See above for more details.

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