288 
AXNT20 KNHC 271721
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.3N 43.8W at 27/1500
UTC or 990 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SSE at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 7 ft are within 60 nm
of the depression. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from
27N to 29N between 43W and 46W.

Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 69W, south of 16N, moving west 
at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted over water 
at this time near this wave. 

The tropical wave previously analyzed over the W Caribbean is now
over Central America, transitioning into the Eastern Pacific. For
more information on this tropical wave, please refer to the
Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N25W to 08N42.5W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N42.5W to 10.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 15.5N west of 20W. Similar convection is
depicted from 06.5N to 17N between 21W and 35W. The interaction of
an upper level trough with the ITCZ is supporting a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms from 11N to 15.5N between 54W and the
Lesser Antilles.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The remnants of a former front are analyzed as a surface trough 
that extends from the Yucatan Channel to 24N90W to N of Tampico, 
Mexico near 24N97W. Scattered moderate convection is found along
the trough between 85.5W and 90W. Otherwise, a surface trough is 
over the Bay of Campeche, generating isolated showers S of 20N. 
A weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds 
basin- wide while seas are slight.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas will prevail through today, then become gentle to moderate SE
winds across the basin through the early part of the week as high
pressure builds over the southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect 
moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western 
Gulf starting mid week, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead
of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient, due to the passage of a cold front N 
of the region, is translating to gentle to moderate trades over the
eastern and central basin, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. 
Seas are 3 to 5 ft basin- wide, except slight in the NW 
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support gentle 
to moderate trades across the Caribbean through Mon night. Expect 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds thereafter through mid week as 
the high pressure build north of the area. Looking ahead, the 
pattern will allow moderate to fresh winds and building seas by 
Thu, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Fey. 

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms persist along a 
trough (remnants of a cold front) reaching from 31N65W through 
the central Bahamas to central Cuba. A cold front is following the
front, reaching from 31N69W to almost the northern Bahamas. Aside
from the shower activity, moderate to fresh SW winds are also 
ahead of the trough along with rough seas to 9 ft. 
 
The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo are centered near 
20.5N23.5W with estimated minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. 
Recent ASCAT depicted moderate to fresh cyclonic winds near the
low. Seas within these winds are 8 to 11 ft. The remnant low of 
Gonzalo will continue to move N-NW and away from the Cabo Verde 
Islands during the next few days, while gradually weakening.

For the forecast west of 55W, large swell off the northern 
Bahamas will subside today, as will moderate SW winds along the 
trough, leaving gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across 
the region. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the 
area supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of
25N by mid week.

$$
KRV