AXNT20 KNHC 250004
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.0N 47.2W at 2100 UTC or
1000 nm W of the Azores moving E at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is E-SE of the center
from 30N-33N between 44W-47W. Leslie is expected to become post-
tropical by Wednesday after it merges with a cold front over the
central Atlantic. After that time, it could acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over
the central Atlantic. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.
A broad 1012 mb low is centered NE of the Bahamas near 29N73W. A
surface trough extends S from the low center to 25N75W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 27N-34N between 70W-76W.
Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly more
conducive for development during the next day or so while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and
Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase, limiting the
chances for additional development. There is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.
Remnants of Kirk now analyzed as a tropical wave along 41W from 03N
to 16N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is associated with the wave. Winds to gale force are in the northern
portion of the wave, while it moves quickly westward at around 25
mph. This system could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the
next few days before it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds
east of the the Caribbean Sea. For more information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa along 17W from 03N-
16N, moving west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with this
wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows
abundant moisture but very little deep convection.
A tropical wave is along 53W from 03N-17N, moving west at 10 kt. The
wave corresponds with a maximum in TPW imagery. Model analyses also
depicts an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are located
from 07N-14N between 46W-54W.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N17W to 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from 07N26W to 09N38W, then
resumes west of the remnants of Kirk near 07N42W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 22W-32W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from E Texas near 30N93W to 25N94W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. The
front is expected to dissipate tonight. Scattered showers will
persist over the NW Gulf through Thu. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across most of the basin
through the middle of the week.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
continues to enhance scattered moderate to strong convection over
the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 78W-84W. Elsewhere, scattered
showers are over the NW Caribbean W of 80W. Expect moderate to
fresh winds to prevail over the central Caribbean through Friday.
Currently, there are three tropical waves, and a subtropical
storm over the Atlantic. See the sections above for details.
A weakening stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
31N40W to 26N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm
either side of the front.
A surface trough is moving into the Leeward Islands from 18N59W to
12N61W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm E of the
trough axis. Elsewhere, visible satellite imagery shows a large area
of Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic from 07N-25N between 34W-
51W, moving W, and encompasses the remnants of Kirk.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by high pressure centered well north of the area.
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