000
AXNT20 KNHC 181049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Marco 
Island, Florida to 21N91W where it transitions into a stationary 
front that extends to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to gale-
force winds and very rough seas to 25 ft follow the front over 
the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds with 
frequent gusts to gale force winds behind the front over the NE 
Gulf will continue through today. The front will slow down as it 
reaches from the Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico later today, 
then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens.
Gale-force winds off Veracruz will persist over the SW Gulf 
through tonight. Peak seas may exceed 25 ft in the Bay of Campeche
today, with rough seas prevailing across large portions of the 
basin through Tue.

Atlantic Gale Warning: This same cold front continues to move SE
across the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N73W to near 
Deerfield Beach, Florida. North winds of 25 to 30 kt are behind 
the front, with frequent gusts over gale-force N of 28N and west 
of 75W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Seas behind the front 
have built quickly to 18 ft. The front will reach from 31N72W to 
the Straits of Florida later this morning, and from near 31N70W to
western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate 
through mid week. Gale-force gusts are expected to continue across
the northwestern zones through today. Seas behind the front are 
expected to build to 18 ft in N to NE swell today, and higher in 
the Gulfstream.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 
07N15W. The ITCZ begins near 05N19W to 06N40W to 07N59W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 07N and E 
of 19W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate convection is 
noted from 07N to 15N between 41W and 57W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

See Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warnings in effect for portions of the Gulf of America behind a 
cold front.

A cold front extends from Marco Island, Florida to 21N91W where 
it transitions into a stationary front that extends to the central
Bay of Campeche. Strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas 
follow the front over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz while fresh 
to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force winds are 
behind the front over the NE Gulf. Aside from the winds and seas,
scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front over the SE
Gulf, the Straits of Florida and the Bay of Campeche.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to
gale force winds behind the front over the NE Gulf will continue 
through today. The front will slow down as it reaches from the 
Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico later today, then drift to the 
southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds 
off Veracruz will persist over the SW Gulf through tonight. Fresh 
to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere north of 
the front and E of 90W into Tue. Looking ahead, strong high 
pressure building over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the 
front, will prolong fresh NE to E winds over the eastern half of 
the Gulf into mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and tstms prevail over the NW Caribbean being
supported by a middle level inverted trough while heavier showers
are ongoing over the SW basin supported by the eastern extension
of the E Pacific monsoon. The passage of a cold front N of the
area is supporing a rather weak gradient over the region, which is
maintaining moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas,
except for fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean. 

For the forecast, a weaker pressure gradient across the region 
due to the passage of a cold front across the Bahamas and the 
southern Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in
the south-central Caribbean through Thu and moderate or weaker 
winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue where it will stall before
dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough 
seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba adjacent 
waters through early Wed morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for waters offshore NE Florida. 

A strong cold front extends from 31N73W to near Deerfield Beach, 
Florida. North winds of 25 to 30 kt are behind the front, with 
frequent gusts over gale-force N of 28N and west of 75W, where a 
Gale Warning is in effect. Seas behind the front have built 
quickly to 18 ft. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the
front, affecting the Bahamas and offshores N of 22N W of 65W. 
Strong high pressure located NW of the Azores extends a broad 
ridge southwestward to 65W, but drapes across a series of surface
troughs from 22N and 29W between 40W and 60W. The pressure 
gradient N of these troughs is yielding moderate to fresh 
easterly winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N swell between 37W and  
44W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also between NW Africa
and 30W N of the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 
31N72W to the Straits of Florida later this morning, and from near
31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning where it will stall 
before dissipating into midweek. Strong to near-gale force winds 
and rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting 
mainly the waters west of 65W through Tue, although seas will 
linger through much of the week. Frequent gusts to gale-force 
winds are forecast behind the front north of 29N and west of 77W 
today through early Mon morning. 

$$
Ramos