000
AXNT20 KNHC 301043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is just E of the Cape Verde Islands with axis along 
21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N to 08N between 10W and 26W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 02N to 15N
with axis near 37W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N and between 30W 
and 44W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 17N into inland
Venezuela, with axis near 68W, moving westward at 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave axis in the SE
Caribbean.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean has its axis near 77W, moving
westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues 
southwestward to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 05N52W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is evident from 04N to 09N between 46W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient across the area has diminished by this
morning, which has resulted in moderate or weaker ESE winds 
across the western half of the Gulf and light to gentle winds 
elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
region. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the 
NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local 
effects associated with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds across the western half of the Gulf have diminished to 
gentle to moderate speeds this morning and are forecast to prevail
the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are 
expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in 
the NE Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to 
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers are ongoing in both the
Gulf of Honduras and in the SE Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin 
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through Sat night, except 
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are 
likely to reach near gale-force speed at night. Otherwise, 
moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E basin while 
moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is moving across the NE Florida offshore waters
west of 70W, bringing showers and scattered tstms to the region.
The Azores High extends a broad ridge elsewhere across the
subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds W
of 30N. Two surface troughs intersect the ridge, one is just E of
the Turks and Caicos ahead of the aforementioned front, and a
second trough is near 47W, both causing scattered to isolated
showers. East of 30W, a tighter pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong
NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft. In the tropical Atlantic waters,
trades are moderate to fresh, and seas moderate to 7 ft.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall from 
31N72W to just N of Freeport by this afternoon and then 
transition to a surface trough by Wed morning. The trough will 
slowly drift WNW and dissipate Thu night offshore NE Florida and 
southern Georgia. Showers are forecast to continue to affect the 
offshore waters N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through midweek. 
Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh 
to locally strong trades offshore Hispaniola and Puerto Rico 
mainly late in the afternoon into the early evening hours. 

$$
Ramos