000
AXNT20 KNHC 172214
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 19N. It is moving 
westward at about 10 kt. Convection previously associated with
this wave has diminished this evening

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending
from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

Another central tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with
its axis near 58W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm west of the wave 
from 11N to 17N.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W south of 19N.
It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate 
convection is ahead of the wave axis and over the Nicaragua, Costa
Rica, and Panama offshore waters. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 17N16W and 
continues southwestward to 12N25W to 11N39W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ, then continues to 11N50W and to 11N57W. No 
significant convection is evident aside from the convection 
discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1021 mb, centered offshore Louisiana, dominates 
the Gulf waters, supporting mainly gentle winds and slight seas. 
offshore the Florida Panhandle moderate W winds have developed in
associated with a trough N of the area. Moderate to fresh NE to N
winds are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche due to a 
westward moving trough that along the west coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Seas to around 6 ft are over the waters where these 
winds are present. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support 
mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A 
diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh winds N of 
the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread 
westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates 
into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the
forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous moderate convection is noted in the NW basin W of 82W, in
association with the interaction of a tropical wave to the SE and
a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. See the Tropical
Waves section above for information on further convection caused
by the tropical wave as well as additional thunderstorms entering
the eastern basin in association with a second tropical wave.
Fresh to locally strong trades and rough seas dominate the central
basin, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and southwest
basin, along with moderate seas. In the NW basin, away from
convection where locally higher winds and seas are likely, gentle
winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the 
area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean through this evening. The area of high 
pressure will then weaken through midweek, loosening the pressure 
gradient with resultant winds diminishing slightly. High pressure 
will build N of the area once again the second half of the week 
into the weekend, tightening the pressure gradient, and 
strengthening winds over the central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low center north of the area 
near 35N50W southwestward to 31N51W to 27N60W to 27N70W and 
northwestward to 31N74W. East of the front, to about 45W, and N of
27N, scattered moderate convection and fresh to strong SW winds
prevail. To the W, south of the boundary to 25N, scattered
moderate convection also is ongoing. 
 
The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the 
influence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of
the Azores. Its related gradient is supporting moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
will stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Winds in the vicinity
of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak pressure 
gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally 
moderate, across much of the area N of 22N through the week. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected S of 22N. 

$$
Konarik