508 
AXNT20 KNHC 122233
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Sep 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh
to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with near gale-force
winds offshore Colombia. Seas are near 13 ft with the strongest
winds based on recent altimeter data. Buoy 42058 located at 
14N76W is reporting seas of 10-11 ft. A tight pressure gradient 
between a subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower 
pressures associated with the Colombian Low supports these wind 
speeds. These marine conditions are forecast to persist for the 
next several days. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore
Colombia, where a Gale Warning has been issued. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 06N to 20N, moving 
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the 
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Senegal near 14N17W, and continues westward to 10N24W to 12N35W 
to 10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to the coast of NE
Venezuela near 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 13N between 44W and 61W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convection continues to develop over the Gulf region, mainly 
north of 26N, and over most of the Florida Peninsula as abundant
tropical moisture remains in place. A diffluent pattern aloft is
also helping to induce this convective activity. A surface 
trough is just E of SE Florida while another trough is over the 
central Bay of Campeche. Under this weather pattern, gentle to 
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will bring relatively tranquil
conditions to Gulf waters into the start of next week. The exception
will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move 
westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, bringing 
nightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting later Tue, stronger 
high pressure building southward from the eastern United States 
will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds
reaching fresh to strong over the NE basin Wed and Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

As previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between surface 
ridging over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low supports
fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas 
over much of the central Caribbean, mainly S of 18N. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are 
prevalent elsewhere. An upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean 
is helping to induce convection over western Cuba and the NW 
Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
remainder of the Greater Antilles due to local effects. 

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with 
the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale 
easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas over 
the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse
to gale force tonight offshore Colombia, where a Gale Warning 
has been issued. Strong winds are expected tonight and Sun night 
in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly 
breezes are expected over the next few days in the eastern 
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low located just N of Hispaniola, combined with
upper diffluent over Florida and the far western Atlantic supports
a band-like of showers and thunderstorms that roughly covers the
area from 24N to 27N W of 55W. Farther E, another area of showers
and thunderstorms is noted affecting the waters from 24N to 30N 
between 39W and 43W. This convective activity is related to a 
surface trough, that runs from 30N40W to 22N41W. A frontal trough
remains over the forecast area, and extends from 31N44W to 26N55W
to just south of Bermuda. A weak 1017 mb low is analyzed along
the front and SE of Bermuda near 30N61W. The remainder of the 
forecast region is dominated by high pressure, with the main center
of 1025 mb located well NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient 
between the high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is 
promoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 20N and E of 30W, 
including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are 
observed E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W, and also just N 
of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas 
are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters based
on altimeter data and Sofar buoys.

Of note: A gale-force gap wind event is occurring in the Straits
of Gibraltar. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue
to dominate through Mon night, bringing mainly tranquil marine 
conditions. However, trades north of Hispaniola into the Windward
Passage will be fresh to locally strong into Monday. On Tue, 
strong high pressure building SE through the eastern United 
States will bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE 
winds to fresh to strong and causing seas to build to rough N of 
the Bahamas and W of 70W Tue night through Wed night. 

$$
GR