000
AXNT20 KNHC 071635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jul 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 12OO UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis
is along 25W south of 17N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 20W
and 27W. Scattered showers are likely over the Cabo Verde Islands
and surrounding waters.

A well defined tropical wave is along 46W south of 17N, moving 
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 40W and 50W. This 
wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Wed evening, bringing fresh 
to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over the E Caribbean 
on Thu and Fri. Currently, seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted west of the
wave axis based on altimeter data. 

Another tropical wave is analyzed near 59W and extends southward 
into Guyana. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 07N to 12N between 53W and 60.5W. the 
wave will move across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight
increasing the chances of rain. It is forecast to reach Puerto 
Rico on Wed bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The tropical wave previously located along 85W is relocated 
farther E along 80W based on tropical wave diagnostic and surface 
observations. Convection is limited near the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 08N44W to 09N57W. Most of the convective
activity across the area is associated with the above mentioned 
tropical waves.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak ridge continues the dominate the Gulf region producing a
gentle to moderate wind flow. Slight to moderate seas are noted 
with these winds. An upper-level low over the western Gulf is
enhancing the development of showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the basin, more concentrated over the west-central Bay of 
Campeche and near the Veracruz area. 

For the forecast, the diurnal trough moving westward from the 
Yucatan peninsula will cause fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
offshore of the peninsula nightly through the weekend. An upper- 
level low will cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
over the Gulf for the next couple of days. Elsewhere, winds and 
seas should be quiescent.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind and altimeter data provide observations
of fresh to strong winds of 20 to 30 kt over central Caribbean 
with seas of up to 13 ft. In addition, buoy 42058 located near 
14N76W is reporting seas up to 10 ft. These winds are the result 
of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the 
Colombian Low. The scatterometer satellite data passes also reveal
moderate to fresh trades across the eastern portion of the basin.
Seas are moderate with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE 
to E winds are seen in the Gulf Honduras, where seas are 4 to 5 
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds along with slight to 
moderate seas are present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over the western Caribbean, particularly W of 85W, 
including in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras. Patches of low 
level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving 
westward across the area producing isolated to scattered passing 
showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores
High north of the area along with lower pressure over N South 
America will produce fresh to near gale trades over the central 
Caribbean for the next several days. Likewise, trades over the 
Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong late afternoons and
evenings through the weekend. A tropical wave centered near 59W 
currently will enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Windward
Islands and the SE Caribbean for the next two days. Another stronger
tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Wed evening, bringing
fresh to strong trades over the E Caribbean on Thu and Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between W Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more
details. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS and the Geocolor
satellite imagery show abundant African dust over this area into 
the eastern Caribbean. 

As it is normal for this time of the year, the Bermuda-Azores 
High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh 
winds are observed along the southern periphery of its associated 
ridge, with the exception of fresh to strong winds just north of 
Hispaniola. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis, mainly
N of 25N. Seas are generally moderate with these winds. An upper-
level low spinning between Hispaniola and the southeastern 
Bahamas is generating some shower activity.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging associated with the Bermuda-
Azores High will remain farther south than usual - near 27N. Waters
north of 29N will have moderate to fresh W to SW winds for the next
several days. Additionally, fresh to strong trades will continue 
just north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage
through the weekend. 

$$
GR