000
AXNT20 KNHC 110307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds to gale-force
will persist through early Wed from the waters north of the 
Canary Islands to off Agadir, Morocco, with 12 to 18 ft seas.
These gales and rough to very rough seas are ahead of a complex
pair of low pressure systems west and northwest of the Canary
Islands moving rapidly to the northeast. Winds and seas will start
to diminish after 12 UTC. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France 
at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 09N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N20W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 07N to 09N between 30W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure pattern continues between 1021 mb high pressure
over the Lower Mississippi Valley and troughs over the western
Gulf and southeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting light to
gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active over the far northwest Gulf along the
upper Texas coast.

For the forecast, a rather strong cold front will reach the Texas coast
Wed night, then sweep across the Gulf through Thu night, exiting 
the basin early on Fri, followed by fresh to locally strong 
northerly winds and building seas. Fresh to strong northwest winds
are expected in the far SW Gulf Thu through Fri. High pressure 
will settle in over the area in the wake of the front this 
weekend, with moderate to fresh easterly winds expected. These 
winds increase to fresh to strong speeds over the NW Gulf Sun, 
then shifting to the north-central and NE Gulf by Sun night as the
gradient tightens ahead of a western Gulf frontal system and 
attendant low pressure that will be shifting eastward. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of
the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to
fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere, except weaker near the coast of Central
America and in the NE Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south-
central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft over the
northwest Caribbean. A few showers are active across the northwest
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas will
prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu, with
mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient
will weaken Thu night into Fri as a cold front approaches the
Yucatan Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate to fresh
northwest winds and building seas are possible behind this front
over the northwestern Caribbean into the weekend.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for portions of the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast area.

A stationary front extends from near 29N55W to low
pressure of 1017 mb near 27N62W. A cold front extends from the
low pressure southwestward to 23N67W, east of 1021 high pressure 
centered near 28N72W. To the east, fresh or greater winds surround
the gale force low area described in the Special Features section
above across the waters north of 20N east of 45W. Winds are 
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, along with 
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front and low pressure will 
exit the region Wed. Another cold front is expected to move off 
the southeastern U.S. coast Thu accompanied by fresh to strong 
winds and building seas on both sides of it. These conditions are 
expected to persist into the weekend. By Sat, the front will stall
from near 26N55W to the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos. 

$$
Christensen