000
AXNT20 KNHC 292304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is seen south of 11N and inland between 46W and 60W. 
Saharan air extends from behind the wave along 50W to the W coast 
of Africa.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 72W south of 15N to 
inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over
the Caribbean waters. However scattered moderate to strong
convection is inland across Colombia and far western Venezuela on
either side of the wave.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W, then
curves southwestward to near 07.5N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N25W
to 05N35W to 04.5N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 02.5N to 10.5N and E of 24W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is seen south of 11N between 46W and 60W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A sharp and well defined upper level trough extends downward into
the low levels of the atmosphere, from Mississippi southward and
across the west-central Gulf, to a 1010 mb surface low across the
central Bay of Campeche near 20N93W. This feature continues to support
scattered moderate to strong convection over the central Gulf, E
of the trough to 85W, from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida
Panhandle. E of this trough, a 1016 mb high is centered offshore
of Tampa Bay, and is generally yielding gentle to moderate SE to 
S winds across most of the waters E of the trough, with seas 2 to 
4 ft. To the W of the trough, gentle winds and slight seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends weakly across 
S Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This ridge will sustain 
gentle to moderate SE to S winds through Tue. The exception will 
be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in 
the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep- 
layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with 
very warm, humid and unstable air will continue to support 
periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the 
central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with 
gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong 
thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the 
latest forecasts. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep-layered upper level trough is located over SE Mexico while
the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean. 
The interaction of these features is producing scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection in the SW Caribbean S of 12.5N,
between the NW coast of Colombia and SE Nicaragua. Scattered
showers embedded in the SE low level wind flow are moving across
the Gulf of Honduras. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
high pressure ridge north of the region along 25N-26N and the 
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas 
across the south-central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the 
Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trades 
and rough seas across the central Caribbean through tonight before
gradually diminishing in areal coverage on Sat. Moderate E to SE 
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh speeds during 
the night through Mon night, then to strong speeds Tue night and 
again Wed night. The Atlantic ridge will weaken as a couple of 
frontal boundaries move across the western Atlantic. This will 
yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across 
most of the basin through Tue, except the south-central Caribbean,
where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist. A 
tropical wave is forecast to reach the Windward Islands by Sat 
afternoon, leading to increased shower activity.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is sinking slowly southward across the NW waters,
extending from 31N61W to 29N73W and then inland across Georgia. 
Ahead of the front, SW winds have increased to fresh to strong 
speeds, N of 28N between 44W and 68W, while seas are building to 
6-10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and
ahead of the front to 60W and NE Florida. All other convection 
across the Atlantic is associated with tropical waves or the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ. A broad ridge extends from 1028 mb high
pressure near 34N22W southwestward to 24N50W and then weakly W-NW
to south Florida. This ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic, 
with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevailing across 
the vast majority of the basin S of 20N and W of 25W. Mostly fair
and hazy conditions dominate the Tropical Atlantic south of 20N,
and east of 50W to the coast of Africa, due to Saharan air. East 
of 25W and N of 17N, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas prevail, confirmed by scatterometer data from 
this morning. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas 
prevail within the ridge axis that extends from just W of the 
Canary Islands through the central Atlantic and to areas just NE 
of the Bahamas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge over the western Atlantic
will support gentle to moderate winds, with moderate seas south 
of 26N through Tue. For the waters north of 26N and east of 70W, 
two cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic will 
bring fresh to strong winds along with rough seas through tonight,
then again from Sat night through Sun night accompanying the next
front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force on either 
side of the second cold front Sat night through Sun night. As a 
result, a Gale Warning has been issued. Rough to very tough seas 
could accompany the strongest winds.

$$
Stripling