000
AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Dec 7 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2354UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N17W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near
03N51W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ between 22W and 41W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends across the central Gulf of Mexico,
stretching from north of Tampa Bay to 25N90W where it becomes
stationary and extends to just south of the Brownsville, TX
coast. A 1021 mb low pressure is analyzed near 25N96W along the
stationary front. Isolated shower are occurring off the
Brownsville coast from 25N to 28N west of 95W.
Behind the front, fresh to strong NE wind are noted off the Texas
coast with moderate to fresh NE winds off the Florida to Louisiana
coast. West of 90W and behind the front seas are 6 to 9 ft.
While, seas are 3 to 6 ft behind the front and E of 90W. Ahead
of the front, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 3 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to
rough seas follow a cold front moving from Spring Hill, Florida
to the central Gulf near 25N90W where it transitions to a
stationary front that connects to a 1021 mb low pressure just SE
of the coast of southern Texas. The cold front will reach the
Florida Straits by early Sat and then dissipate while the
stationary portion of the front lift northward as a warm front
before dissipating Sat night. Broad high pressure will build
north of the area behind the front into Mon, supporting moderate
to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. Looking ahead, a
stronger cold front is forecast to enter the far northwest Gulf
Tue night, followed by strong to gale-force winds and rapidly
building seas. The front is forecast to reach from Venice,
Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Wed afternoon and exit the basin Wed evening.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure north of the region combined with lower pressure
near the Colombia coast is bringing fresh to near gale-force winds
off the coast of Colombia according to the latest Scatterometer
data. Seas are 7 to 9 ft especially near the strongest winds.
Across the rest of the Caribbean, strong pressure gradient is
giving way to moderate to fresh winds with NE winds noted in the
northwest Caribbean and easterly winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean. Seas mostly range 4 to 7 ft. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted in northern Honduras, otherwise no significant
precipitation is occurring across the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the region is
supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Colombia, and
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas elsewhere. The high
pressure north of the region will build through Sat following a
cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico and the western
Atlantic. This will allow winds to gradually increase in
intensity and areal extent over the northwest Caribbean, Windward
Passage, and central Caribbean Sat through Mon. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish over the northwest Caribbean and
Windward Passage Mon night and Tue as the high pressure shifts
eastward into the central Atlantic. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE
winds will prevail over the Colombia offshore waters through Wed
morning.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends off the northeast
Florida coast from 31N66W to Cape Canaveral, Florida near
28.5N81W. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are behind the
front. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are ahead of the front
with 8 to 11 ft seas N of 28N between 62W and 74W. No significant
convection is associated with the front at this time. An old
boundary is lingering southeast of the front as a trough,
extending from 30N57W to 23N64W. Moderate to fresh winds are
occurring north of Cuba and near the Windward Passage.
In the central Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds are noted N of
23N between 32W and 56W. Seas in this region range 5 to 7 ft.
Farther south, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail S of 23N and
west of 30W. Seas range 7 to 9 ft, with the higher seas near the
fresh winds.
In the eastern Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 20N32W to
27N35W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 23N between
the trough and the west coast of Africa due to an upper level
trough. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 14.5N E of 29W.
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this area.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from
Bermuda to 28N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida will reach from
31N58W to the Straits of Florida tonight, from 31N55W to 27N68W
by Sat afternoon, and move over the central Atlantic subtropical
waters Sun afternoon before dissipating. High pressure will build
between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat into Tue. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast
Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach
from 31N80W to St Augustine Wed afternoon and from 31N74W to the
Straits of Florida Wed night. Strong winds and rough seas will
rapidly build as the front moves across the Bahamas and the
Florida Peninsula.
$$ KRV