000
AXNT20 KNHC 171710
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Storm and Gale Warnings: A cold front extends 
from near Tampa, FL to the Bay of Campeche. A scatterometer pass 
at 1506 UTC today confirmed NW winds of up to 50 kts offshore 
Veracruz, along with a large swath of gale-force winds S of 26N 
and W of 94W. Recent altimeter data over the western Gulf along 
with buoy observations over the northwest Gulf confirm rough to 
very rough seas up to 14 ft follow the front. Frequent gusts to 
gale force are ongoing elsewhere north of the front. Very 
dangerous marine conditions are likely along the coast of Veracruz
later today, as winds out of the NW will funnel along the coast 
and increase to storm force, with seas building as high as 25 ft. 
The storm and gale conditions and very rough seas will subside 
through late Sun night off Veracruz, but strong winds and rough 
seas may not subside until mid week. 

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is moving off the coast of 
northeast Florida. The front will reach from 31N72W to the 
Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to 
western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate
through mid week. Frequent gusts to gale force will follow the 
front Sun over the waters north of 29N and west of 75W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ then
extends from 08N23W to 11N39W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 04N to 11N and E of 24W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 06N to 13N between 29W
and 36W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

See details above about the Storm and Gale Warnings in the Gulf of
America.

Showers and thunderstorms are active along the cold front, 
reaching from near Tampa, Florida to the Bay of Campeche. 
Additional showers and thunderstorms are active over the southeast
Gulf, ahead of an upper trough extending over the central Gulf. 
Light to gentle NE winds and slight seas are noted south and east
of the front. 

For the forecast, a cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to
the Chivela Pass in Mexico. Strong gale force winds and very 
rough seas follow the front over the west-central Gulf, with 
increasing winds to minimal storm force in the SW Gulf near 
Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to gale 
force follow the front elsewhere behind the front including over 
the northern Gulf. The front will reach from Naples, Florida to 
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening. Storm force winds off 
Veracruz will diminish to strong gale this evening, while strong 
gale force winds persists in the west-central Gulf. Frequent gusts
to gale force elsewhere behind the front should diminish by this 
evening. The front will then slow down as it reaches from the 
Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the 
southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gales will 
diminish in the west-central Gulf by early Sun, and persist over 
the SW Gulf through Sun night. Strong NE winds and rough seas will
persist elsewhere north of the front. Looking ahead, strong high 
pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the 
front, promoting fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half 
of the Gulf into mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant low level moisture is converging across the NW Caribbean
and interacting with the upper trough across the central Gulf to 
produce numerous moderate to strong convection across the 
northwest Caribbean north of 14N and west of 81W, as well as 
between Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. To the south, the East
Pacific monsoon trough enhances scattered strong convection across
the SW Caribbean S of 14N and W of 75W. At the surface, the 
seasonal pressure gradient across the region is leading to 
moderate to fresh trades across the central basin, with locally
strong trades offshore Colombia. Seas are 3-6 ft across much of
the Caribbean, with 6-8 ft seas in the south-central basin.

For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western 
Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient is 
relaxing across the basin. This pattern will support moderate to 
fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with 
moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia today. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast 
elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a 
surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean into the 
evening. Moisture associated with this feature will merge with the
cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The front will 
likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by Tue then 
dissipate. Large seas associated with the front will impact the 
Yucatan Channel with hazardous conditions possible there.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See details above about the Gale Warning offshore NE Florida.

A pre-frontal trough is analyzed between the Florida Peninsula and
the Bahamas, with scattered moderate convection occurring along
and E of the trough to about 75W. A weak stationary front is 
analyzed north of 28N between 47W and 65W, with a dissipating 
frontal boundary to the south. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen from 24N to 29N between 45W and 50W, and also from 24N to 26N
between 67W and 70W. Farther east, a trough is analyzed from 
18N39W to 29N38W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the
north end of the trough as well as E of the trough to 30W. 
Another surface trough is analyzed from 07N44W to 15N38W, and is 
inducing scattered moderate convection along and near the trough 
axis. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the 
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades and 5-8 ft seas prevail N of 
20N and E of 40W, while gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas 
prevail across the rest of the basin. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a pair of weak frontal boundaries 
east of 70W will merge then dissipate through today, ahead of a 
strong cold front that moved off the coast of northeast Florida 
this morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of 
Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba
by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. 
Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will
follow the front affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through 
Tue, although seas will linger through mid-week. Frequent gusts to
gale force are forecast behind the front north of 29N and west of
74W tonight through Sun.

$$
Adams