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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



794 
AXNT20 KNHC 220437
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 22  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0437 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Mexico gale warning: A cold front is moving across the 
Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds are currently occuring off the 
coast of Tampico, Mexico, with seas building to near 10 ft 
overnight. Winds will diminish below gale force early Mon 
morning. 

Western Atlantic gale warning: The same cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico will move off the east coast of Florida tonight. Fresh to 
strong winds will follow the front. Winds will increase to gale 
force on Mon afternoon over the waters N of 30N W of the front. 
The gale force winds will lift N of the area late Mon night. 
Seas will build to near 14 ft during the period of gale force 
winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W and extends southward to 03N19W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N19W to coastal Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered to 
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N 
to 08N between the west coast of Africa and 33W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is S of 04N between 37W and 
50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features above for more on a gale warning in
the western Gulf.

A cold front extends from just N of Tampa Bay, Florida to just S 
of Tampico, Mexico. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is 
depicted along the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the 
front and W of 89W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of 
the front. Light to gentle winds are SE of the front, reaching 
moderate speeds S of the front over the western Gulf. Seas are 
in the 7-10 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere N of 
the front. Seas of 3-4 ft are S of the front and W of 90W, and 1-
3 ft S of the front and E of 90W.  

For the forecast, a cold front extends from just N of Tampa Bay,
Florida to just S of Tampico, Mexico with thunderstorms possible 
along and ahead of it. Gale-force winds offshore southern 
Tamaulipas and northern Veracruz will diminish late tonight, 
with fresh to strong winds and building seas elsewhere behind 
the front. The front will push SE of the basin by Mon evening 
with conditions gradually improving. High pressure will dominate 
in the wake of the front through mid-week. Winds will increase 
by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens, which 
will also build seas. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the 
Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1023 high pressure located near 30N53W continues to support a 
weak pressure gradient over the basin. The weaker pressure 
gradient is generating moderate to locally fresh winds in the 
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across 
the Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the central 
Caribbean, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater 
Antilles will support pulsing fresh to strong winds just 
offshore N Colombia tonight, and again Wed night. Otherwise 
moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the central 
and eastern Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will 
prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh from the Lee of 
Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore central Honduras at 
times. A decaying cold front may reach into the Caribbean N of 
20N Mon night, possibly bringing a brief period of active 
weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special features section for information on gale 
conditions expected across the NW waters.

Weak ridging prevails across the western Atlantic, anchored by a
1023 mb high centered near 30N53W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center and along the ridge axis. Fresh 
to locally strong S to SE winds are off the coast of N Florida, 
with gentle to moderate wind S of the ridge to the Greater 
Antilles. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range. 
Farther east, a 1007 mb low is centered near 32N33W, with a 
secondary 1010 mb low near 27N35W. A cold front extends from the 
second low to near 22N43W, with a trough then continuing to 
south of Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity 
of the low pressure centers, with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, 
mainly gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, broad ridge over the western Atlantic will 
continue ahead of a cold front moving offshore NE Florida this 
evening, reaching from 31N73W to near Stuart, Florida Mon 
evening, from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, 
then stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to 
the Turks and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong 
winds and building seas will follow the front, mainly N of 27N, 
increasing to gale speeds N of 30N late Mon afternoon and 
spreading eastward. Winds will diminish below gale late Mon 
night. Seas will build to 15 ft with the strongest winds. The 
trough is forecast to linger through the remainder of the week 
with mainly tranquil conditions for the end of the week.

$$
KRV