000
AXNT20 KNHC 072306
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Sep 08 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 03N
to 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm west of the wave 
from 05N to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W. It is 
moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm east of the wave from 05N to 08N. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to
18N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 71W south 
of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers 
and thunderstorms are possible under high cloudiness from 12N to 
17N between 68W and 72W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86.5W south of 19N.
It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. For related convection 
information, please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical 
Weather Discussion (TWDEP)

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and
continues southwestward to 13N24W and west-southwestward to
09N40W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N47W. It resumes
near 08N51W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
240 nm south of the ITCZ between 40W and 46W. Similar convection
is well to the southeast of the trough from 06N to 10N east of 
22W to well inland Africa.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is draped across northern Florida and the 
Florida panhandle. The combination of this frontal boundary, 
with deep moisture already in place over the area and an upper- 
level trough digging southward over the southeastern U.S. and a 
trough that extends from central Florida southwestward to 
just of Key and near the Dry Tortugas will continue to favor 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the 
eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the Florida 
peninsula and the southern portion of Alabama, Mississippi and 
southeastern Louisiana going into the middle part of the week. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident south of 25N
west of 90W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are 
elsewhere.

Weak high pressure of 1015 mb is centered near 27N93W. Its
associated weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for 
light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin per
latest buoy observations, scatterometer data and as few 
satellite altimeter data passes.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure will 
persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a 
weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle 
winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse 
to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula 
during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving 
westward from the peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is 
sustaining fresh to locally strong trades along with moderate 
seas over the south- central Caribbean. Mostly moderate trades
and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of 
the northwestern portion of the sea, where light to gentle winds
are continuing.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and the lower pressure in northern South America
will begin to tighten tonight, leading to an increase in areal 
coverage of strong winds, locally to near-gale force, through 
Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas 
will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave
into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu 
morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed extending from weak low pressure 
of 1014 mb near 31.5N71W southwestward to 30N76W and westward to 
inland northern Florida near 30N81W. To the south and southeast 
of this frontal boundary, numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
occurring northwest and north of a line from 31N61W to 27N70W and
to 23N78W. A mid to upper-level northeast to southwest oriented 
trough situated north of Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola continues
to support scattered showers and thunderstorms from 18.5N to 
23.5N between 62W and 70.5W. High pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb
high center near 27N55W pretty much controls the wind regime
throughout the remainder of the basin. A stronger high center
of 1027 mb is north of the area at 35W24W. A ridge stretches 
from this high center southwestward to the 1022 mb high and to 
near 25N70W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
a pair of tropical waves moving through the tropical Atlantic 
region is supporting fresh to strong winds north of 11N and east 
of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters. 
Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are over the waters west 
of about 70W. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas 
are present elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
of 1022 mb and ridge will gradually shift northeastward and 
strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue, then moderate to 
fresh winds south of about 21N Tue night through Thu. A weak cold
front will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting 
northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across 
these northern waters west of 60W through Tue night. 

$$
Aguirre