850 
AXNT20 KNHC 131624
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Nov 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1623 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

North-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: a strong cold front extends 
from 31N75W to South Florida. Strong SW winds are ahead of the 
front, with fresh NW winds behind it. The front is expected to 
reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning,
and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by 
Sun morning. Southwest winds ahead of the front are forecast to 
reach gale force late tonight into Sat N of 29N. Please, see the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N20W to 04N36W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is active from 05N to 08N between 20W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Naples, Florida to just offshore Tampico,
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas are
north of the front. Locally fresh winds and moderate seas are off
Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and 
slight seas, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the cold front will move quickly SE and out of 
the basin later today. Moderate to fresh N winds will gradually 
diminish in the wake of the front as high pressure builds 
southward into the region. Sat night into Sun, fresh to strong E 
winds will develop across the northern and central Gulf ahead of 
the next cold front, that will move off Texas Mon morning. This 
front cross the basin through night, bringing fresh to strong 
winds behind it. Winds to near gale-force area possible in the far
NE Gulf early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters
east of 76W. Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, 
are noted elsewhere. A surface trough extends from central Cuba 
to the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is depicted along and east of the trough, also 
impacting portions of central and eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central and 
eastern Caribbean will diminish tonight. A cold front will enter 
the NW waters today. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are
expected behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean Sat 
into Sun night. Trade winds are likely strengthen again over the 
south central Caribbean early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to South Florida. Strong SW 
winds are ahead of the front, with fresh NW winds behind it. A 
pre- frontal through from the Central Bahamas through Central Cuba
is inducing scattered to numerous thunderstorms to its east, 
impacting the central and eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas, and the 
Turks and Caicos. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is ahead of the trough, generally S of 28N east of the
front to 63W. Farther east, high pressure generally prevails, 
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 33N35W. Light to gentle 
winds cover the waters north of 24N between 35W and 50W. Fresh 
winds are found over the waters south of 13N between 35W and 60W.
Gentle to moderate winds cover the remainder of the discussion 
waters. Seas are mainly moderate across the discussion waters, 
except reaching locally rough west of the cold front. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to reach from
near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning, and from 
near 31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun 
morning. SW winds ahead of the front are forecast to reach gale 
force late tonight into Sat N of 29N. The cold front portion will 
shift east of 55W late Sun night while the stationary portion 
weakens. A building Bermuda High will tighten the pressure 
gradient and support fresh to strong northeast winds south of 27N 
west of 65W Mon and Mon night. The fresh to strong winds will 
expand northward in coverage Tue and Tue night. 

$$
KRV