000
AXNT20 KNHC 041728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this 
evening from 29N64W to 19N65W, underneath an upper trough 
extending from Bermuda southwestward over the Bahamas and S 
Florida. A 1010 mb low is analyzed along the trough near 26N66W. 
Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data showed strong to 
near-gale E to NE winds N of 26N between 55W and 70W, while recent
altimeter data showed 8-11 ft seas between the Bahamas and 
Bermuda. As the low strengthens today, the pressure gradient is 
expected to yield near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning 
this afternoon, roughly over the waters N of 29N between 60W and 
70W. Seas are expected to build to 10-15 ft with these winds 
through Thu as the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The 
low pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late 
this week as it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub- 
tropical Atlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern 
portions of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat.
 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean and eastern Pacific will interact
with enhanced low-level moisture over the western Caribbean 
during the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation 
developing across Central America, northern South America, as well
as Jamaica through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected
across the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, 
with the bulk of precipitation occurring today and Thursday. Heavy
rainfall will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding 
and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from coast of Guinea near
11N15W, and continues southwestward to 07N21W. The ITCZ and 
continues from that point to 09.5N61W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring along and within 250 nm of these features
generally E of 53W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front reaches from the SE LA coast near 29N91W to the NE
Mexico coast just north of Tampico. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds follow the front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
in the far NE Gulf, driven by convergent surface winds in the E
Gulf and a pre-frontal trough near the FL Panhandle. Surface
ridging prevails elsewhere across much of the Gulf, supporting
gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas. 

For the forecast, a cold front across the NW Gulf will weaken and
dissipate by tonight. Moderate northwest to north winds prevail 
west of the front. The next cold front is expected to move across 
the Gulf waters this weekend. Fresh to strong north winds will 
develop west of the front and west of 93W on Sun, with moderate 
north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports 
scattered moderate to strong convection from 08N to 18N between 
71W and 81W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between surface
ridging in the Atlantic and the 1009 mb Colombia low supports
moderate to fresh trades across the north-central and NW Caribbean
N of 14N between 75W and 82W. Gentle to moderate or weaker trades
prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas of 1-4 ft are seen
across the Caribbean. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is 
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The 
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area today. This 
will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern 
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic. 

A frontal boundary extends from a 1013 mb low near 30N35W to
26N38W to 28N64W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 23N to 30N between 54W and 63W, with additional
scattered moderate convection occurring farther east along the
front from 21N to 29N between 37W and 54W. In addition to the
winds and seas described in the Special Features section above,
moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail across much of
the waters W of 70W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft
prevail E of the front across areas N of 27N and W of 30W. Gentle
to moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere
across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1010 mb low pressure centered 
near 26N66W will track slowly east- northeastward during the rest 
of the week and the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale- force
winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, will 
develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward from this 
afternoon through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of about 
27N. The gale-force winds will likely be north of 29N from this 
afternoon through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move 
across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then 
dissipate Sat and Sat night. 

$$
Adams