538 
AXNT20 KNHC 191647
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 
10N and between 27W and 33W.

A tropical wave is near 50W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 
to 15 kt. Convection is limited at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis
is along 71W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave
axis, just south of Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal,
south of Dakar, and continues westward to 11N30W and to 10N48W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to NE Venezuela near 09N62W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 12N
and east of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure
located near 27N90W. This weather pattern supports a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas. Locally fresh easterly
winds are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a thermal trough.
An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is affecting the SW
and west-central parts of the Gulf. An upper-level low spinning over
NE Mexico is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters
through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support
mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate 
seas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough 
will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the 
Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread 
westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates 
into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds across
the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across
the remainder of the central part of the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 
ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian 
low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the 
offshore waters of Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, including 
the Mona Passage. Similar convective activity is affecting parts 
of western Panama and Costa Rica. Shallow moisture, embedded in 
the trade wind flow, is observed elsewhere producing isolated to 
scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean
through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean
into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N48W to a 1015 mb low pressure
located near 29N62W. A trough extends from the low center to near the
SE Bahamas. A band of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
is associated with these features. Satellite derived winds data show
moderate to fresh S to SW winds within about 150 nm south of the 
stationary front between 48W and 50W, and within about 90 nm south
of the front between 59W and 62W. The remainder of the Atlantic 
is dominated by the Azores High centered near 40N32W. Under the 
influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds are 
occurring S of 24N E of 40W, and S of 22N W of 40W, with the 
exception of moderate to fresh NE winds from 20N to 24N E of 26W. 
Seas are generally moderate E of 70W, and slight to moderate W of 
70. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front
will weaken to a frontal trough today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate,
across much of the area north of 22N through the week and into 
the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south 
of about 22N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period.

$$
GR