000
AXNT20 KNHC 241929
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 
41.2W at 24/1500 UTC or 860 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 12
ft are occurring within 45 nm across the N semicircle. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 
45 nm SW quadrants. Fay will move to 29.8N 42.0W this evening, 
29.7N 42.9W Fri morning, 29.6N 43.9W Fri evening, weaken to a 
remnant low near 29.5N 45.2W Sat morning, 29.5N 46.0W Sat evening,
and dissipate Sun morning.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could
become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later
today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward.
Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further
development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands
should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas
of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by
Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the
east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western
portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest
portions of Mauritania. This system has a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough 
currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the 
Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea 
surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. 
An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during
the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical 
moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, 
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There 
is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme 
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, 
western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as 
well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy
rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north-
northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern
coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the 
remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75W. Heavy rainfall across these
regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash 
flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as
well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center 
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See Special Features section above for information on a tropical
wave in the far eastern Atlantic that has potential for tropical 
cyclone formation. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, S of 17W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted within 60 nm of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, south 
of 16N into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 
64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 15N16W and extends
SW to near 10N26W then to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues from 10N48W
to 10N59W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
within 90 nm on either side of the boundary and E of 32W, and from
09N to 13N and E of 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary extends from south Florida to NE Texas.
Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas, are N of the
front. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas,
prevail elsewhere.  

For the forecast, the front is forecast to progress across the E 
Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE Gulf this weekend. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through Fri 
night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through 
Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean,
and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America into the weekend.

Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the 
waters E of 75W. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate
seas, are W of 75W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate
to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W 
Caribbean for the next couple of days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical 
Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of 
Bermuda.

A frontal boundary extends from 31N75W to south Florida. Fresh to
strong winds, and rough seas, prevail elsewhere. Aside from AL90,
moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are E of 25W.
Elsewhere, aside from Fay, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate
seas are noted. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will shift eastward, 
reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night 
before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to 
strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front through 
Fri, before decreasing on Sat.

$$
AL