181 
AXNT20 KNHC 022258
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jun 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 1010 mb low
pressure centered near 30N68W to just NE of the Bahamas. This
system will move E and pass Bermuda tonight. SE of Bermuda, gale
force SW winds and very rough seas will continue until the front
moves through. Later tonight, the front will stall and the low
will move further north of the region, allowing winds to diminish
into Wed. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged off Africa into the far eastern
Atlantic this evening, and has an axis along 21N, from 12N
southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 16W and 26W. 

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 42N, south of 16N and 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection previously associated
with this wave has diminished this evening.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 53W, 
south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is
noted near this trough at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues 
southwestward to 03N33W. The ITCZ extends from 03N33W to 05N51W.
Convection near the monsoon trough is associated with the far
eastern Atlantic tropical wave, depicted in the above Tropical
Waves section. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Mid- and upper-level troughing and deep tropical moisture is
supporting scattered moderate convection throughout the basin,
with the most concentrated area of convection from 22N to 27N
between 85W and 95W. At the surface, weak high pressure is
translating to gentle winds away from convection, along with
slight seas. 
 
For the forecast, a modest surface ridge at the northeastern Gulf
will support gentle to moderate easterly to southerly winds and 
slight seas through tonight. A late-season cold front will enter 
the northeastern Gulf Wed morning, then stall from near Punta 
Gorda, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before 
dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and 
rough seas behind this front and also north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild across the central
and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough 
across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and 
thunderstorms across the eastern and central Gulf through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas dominate the central
Caribbean due to the tight pressure gradient between 1035 mb high
pressure centered S of the Azores and low pressure over Colombia.
Fresh winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras, with moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas elsewhere. The only convection in the basin is in
the far SW, S of 11N, where an extension of the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough is inducing scattered thunderstorms. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern basin will 
diminish to between gentle and moderate with moderate seas by Wed 
night or early Thu morning. A similar trend is also expected at 
the Gulf of Honduras by Fri night. Early next week, a large, 
strengthening Azores High will cause tightening gradient again, 
leading to building winds and seas at northwestern and central 
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for
waters southeast of Bermuda.

S of the cold front depicted in the Special Features section,
scattered moderate convection extends for about 150 nm from the
boundary, impacting much of the Bahamas. E of the front, southward
to 25N and E to 60W, strong SW winds are rough seas are present,
with strong NE winds and rough seas occurring W of the front and N
of 28N. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 
broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high pressure
between the Canary Islands and the Azores. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas will diminish into 
Fri as broad high pressure builds off the Carolinas. Farther 
south, strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola
tonight. 

$$
Konarik