000
AXNT20 KNHC 101002
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 26W and extends from 08N to 17N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
06N to 12N between 24W and 33W. 

A tropical wave is near 43W from 07N to 17N, moving west at 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N 
between 39W and 50W. 

A tropical wave is along 55W from 13N to 24N, moving west at 15 
kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant 
convection currently accompanies the wave.

A tropical wave is along 74W and S of 20N, moving west at 15 to 
20 kt. No convection is noted in this wave's environment at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 11N47W. The ITCZ 
extends from 11N47W to 10N61W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical waves, no convection is noted at this
time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf 
waters, mainly near southwest Florida, the Yucatan Channel, and 
over the NW part of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is 
helping to induce this convective activity. Convection has also 
flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula and is slowly shifting
westward into the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge 
extends from the Bermuda High west-southwestward across northern 
Florida and across the northern Gulf along 29N. This pattern is 
supporting light to gentle winds and slight of 3 ft or less over 
most of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring 
across the nearshore waters along the N and W coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, W of a surface trough over the Peninsula. Moderate 
easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail across the Straits of
Florida. 
 
For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the general 
wind flow pattern across basin well into the upcoming week, 
generally supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N
along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north 
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche 
each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from 
the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located 
just southwest of Bermuda and a 1007 mb Colombian low continues 
to promote fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
between 66W and 80W, with the strongest winds around 30 kt 
offshore Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7 to
10 ft with these winds. Winds have increased to strong near the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic, near the Barahona
Peninsula, as a tropical wave is moving through the area. 
Scattered moderate convection trails the wave. Moderate to fresh 
winds are E of 66W across the eastern Caribbean behind the 
tropical wave. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. Fresh to strong NE winds 
are also present across the Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 
7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere across NW 
portions, with moderate seas. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are occurring over south coastal portions of Cuba, and in the 
Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin 
will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south- 
central and portions of the SW basin will into the week. The  
Atlantic ridge will gradually shift southward to near 28N through 
midweek maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to 
fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the 
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The 
Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later this week, which
may act to increase the trades again across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic between
W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center 
is monitoring two areas with the potential of tropical cyclone 
formation during the coming week.

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, centered on a 
1023 mb Bermuda High, and a 1022 mb high near 28N36W. A weakening
cold front is analyzed N of 30N between 40W and 48W. The ridge is
promoting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N and west of 
30W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are near 
the tropical wave along 41W-42W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
and 5 to 9 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to
near 19N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will 
shift gradually southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh trades 
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward 
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each night. 
The ridge will sink a bit farther southward later next week, which
may result in stronger easterly winds.

Of note, a low pres system is forecast to move slowly across the 
East Atlantic and merge with a tropical wave in a couple of days, 
and environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development by midweek. A tropical depression could form during 
the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is 
a medium chance for tropical development for this system within 
the next 7 days.  

$$
ERA