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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central 
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern 
Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical 
characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the 
next few days.  By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler 
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potential 
of tropical transition after that time.  Additional information on 
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The next Special 
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST 
Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin