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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle
part of this week where additional development is possible.
1. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and in products from your local weather
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds and an area of
showers and thunderstorms displaced to the east of the center. If
shower activity re-develops closer to the center, a tropical storm
could form over the next couple of days while the system drifts
slowly through tomorrow and then moves northeastward over the
central Atlantic. The system is forecast to merge with a strong
cold front by the middle part of this week. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php