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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A well-defined low pressure area located several hundred miles east 
of Bermuda is associated with an area of showers and thunderstorms. 
This activity has been attempting to redevelop closer to the center, 
and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or 
storm is likely to form later today while the system drifts slowly 
over the central Atlantic. Thereafter, the system is forecast to 
turn northeastward and merge with a strong cold front by the middle 
part of this week. Additional information on this system, including 
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing about 100 miles north of 
Puerto Rico and is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward or 
northwestward further into the southwestern Atlantic today and 
environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional 
development. A subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form 
early this week while the system turns westward or 
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of 
development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, 
gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion 
along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east 
coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during 
the early to middle part of this week.  Interests in those areas 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin