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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea. 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently 
investigating the disturbance. Regardless of development, locally 
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the 
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
A low pressure area located about 100 miles west-northwest of 
Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity to the 
north of the center as it continues to interact with a nearby 
frontal system. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the 
system tonight, and the low is forecast to merge with the front by 
early Sunday. Therefore, the chances of subtropical development of 
this system appear to be decreasing. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

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