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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located 
about 70 miles north of Bermuda remains limited. The low is moving 
northward over cooler waters and into an area of strong upper-level 
winds. Therefore, the chance for development is decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure extending from near the Turks and Caicos 
Islands north-northeastward for several hundred miles is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this 
system over the next few days while it drifts north-northeastward. 
By this weekend, the system is forecast to meander over the 
subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or 
west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Brown