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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
450 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical 
Depression Twelve, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.

1. East of the Windward Islands:
Updated:  Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the broad area of low pressure located a couple of 
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands does not have a closed 
circulation and the center remains ill defined.  In addition, the 
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is still displaced to 
the southeast of the center.  Upper-level winds are likely to 
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
could form during the next couple of days, if the system stays far 
enough away from land while moving westward at about 15 mph across 
the Windward Islands and southeastern Caribbean Sea.  Conditions 
are forecast to become more conducive for development later this 
week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. 
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the 
Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC 
Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in those 
locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be 
found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Berg