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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of this 
week.  Further development will become less likely by the end of the 
week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to 
move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of 
the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have 
become slightly better organized since yesterday.  Some further 
development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression 
could form within the next few days while it moves generally 
westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the 
eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.  Interests in the Windward Islands 
should monitor the progress of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Brown