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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.  
Further development will become less likely by the end of the week 
due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move 
westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of the 
week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands have changed
little in organization during the past several hours.  Further 
development of the wave is possible, however, and a tropical 
depression could form during the next few days while it moves 
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands 
and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.  Interests in the 
Windward Islands should monitor the progress of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts