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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, 
and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located a few hundred miles 
west-northwest of the central Azores. 

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that an area 
of low pressure has formed in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, though 
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains 
disorganized. The environment is forecast to become more conducive 
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the 
next day or so. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and 
be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend where conditions are 
expected to be conducive for additional development.  Locally heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands, 
northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain today. These impacts 
are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia later this evening.  
Interests in Jamaica should closely monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are 
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm 
waters of the far eastern Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical 
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly 
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Despite marginal 
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is 
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci