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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located northeast of the southeastern Bahamas, and on
Tropical Storm Gaston, located over the north-central Atlantic
Ocean.
1. Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a
couple hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The
system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely
become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central
Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands
should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern
Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could
form this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between
west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Despite a dry environment, slow development
of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves
northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Bucci