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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southern Caribbean Sea:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southern Caribbean Sea near 
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low 
pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and 
found a closed wind circulation.  However, at this time the 
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized 
to designate the system as a tropical depression.  This system is 
forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern 
Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development 
is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical 
depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves 
inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of development, 
heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for 
the next few days. For more information about the potential for 
heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather 
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the western tropical Atlantic 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Slow development of this system is possible while it moves 
west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to 
move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and 
then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further 
development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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