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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave associated with a weak area of low pressure is 
located less than 200 miles east of the Windward Islands. While this 
system continues to produce showers and thunderstorms primarily east 
of its center, strong upper-level winds will likely prohibit further 
development on Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system could 
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of 
the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Another tropical wave moving over Hispaniola is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While environmental 
conditions are not expected to support development of this system 
over the next day or two, some gradual development is possible 
starting on Wednesday when the system nears the southeastern Bahamas 
and begins moving slowly eastward. Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser 
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of 
days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin