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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure area located about 75 miles south of 
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized 
showers and a few thunderstorms.  Recent radar and satellite imagery 
indicates that the circulation of the low has become less defined 
since this morning. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are 
expected to prevent any further development of this system while
it moves slowly northward or north-northeastward through Monday. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
are still possible over portions of the North Caroling Outer Banks 
through Monday and information on these hazards can be found in 
products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. 
Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about a little more than 500 miles east- 
southeast of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area 
of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive, and some 
limited development could occur during the next day or so while the 
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  After that time, 
strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development. 
The disturbance is forecast to approach the central and northern 
Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday.  Regardless of 
development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser 
Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward 
Islands on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. Another tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over 
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit any 
development over the next day or so, but environmental conditions 
could become a little more conducive for some gradual development of 
the system when it is located near the southeastern Bahamas around 
midweek. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is 
possible over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and 
Hispaniola during the next couple of days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown