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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better 
organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a 
couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. While recent satellite wind 
data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined 
circulation, environmental conditions remain conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move 
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today, near 
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the 
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in 
portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the 
Cayman Islands, and Cuba.  In addition, this system could bring 
dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to 
portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of 
Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, 
uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. 
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this 
system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the system later today, if necessary.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system 
moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development 
of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive 
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven