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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located about 380 miles east-southeast of the 
Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some 
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could 
form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  The 
disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by 
late tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on 
Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week.  
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with 
shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Leeward Islands, 
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and 
flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and 
Puerto Rico.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in 
association with an elongated low pressure area located about 1000 
miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Development of this system is 
becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward 
the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch